Time variation in the cointegrating relationship between stock prices and economic activity

The present paper examines whether there exists a long‐run cointegrating relationship between a stock market index and output and interest rates. Moreover, estimation is conducted over the full sample and both a recursive and rolling sample to examine any time variation in the nature of the relationship. The results support evidence of a single cointegrating vector, where stock prices typically exhibit a positive relationship with industrial production and a negative relationship with interest rates. However, there is significant time variation and periods of time where contrary results are observed. As such any model of stock prices needs to account for such time variation     

固网运营商的3G发展策略

3G,是英文3rd Generation的缩写,指第三代移动通信技术,相对第一代模拟制式移动通信(1G)和第二代GSM、CDMA等数字移动通信(2G) ,第三代移动通信一般地讲,是指将无线通信与国际互联网等多媒体通信结合的新一代移动通信系统。在中国本土通信市场上, 3G作为下一代商用的移动通信技术越来越近。3G对原有的固网运营商和移动运营商的未来发展的重要性以及对现实业务的冲击,都让运营商不得不高度重视3G市场,并投入大量的精力研究自身的3G发展策略。本文从目前的固网运营商及移动运营商各自的优势,对3G业务、用户市场的粗浅分析中,力求得出固网运营商可能的3G发展策略。     

Effective property rights, conflict and growth

This paper shows how the interaction between conflict and growth can give rise to a nonmonotone relationship between property rights and social welfare. This interaction is illustrated in a model of endogenous growth in which equilibrium diversion of resources is the cost of securing effective property rights. A symmetric equilibrium allocation associated with more secure property rights and faster growth can be Pareto dominated by one associated with poorer property rights and slower growth. Faster growth can exacerbate the problem of diversion whenever property rights are sufficiently poor. These results call for caution before a society decides to pursue economic growth independently of the institutional structure of property rights. Furthermore, if this structure is inappropriate piecemeal reform might not be in the interest of society, and a substantial reform might be necessary if it is to be welfare-improving.     

Stationary solution to the overlapping generations model of fiat money: Experimental evidence

Overlapping generations model of fiat money yields an infinity of competitive equilibrium solutions, only one of which is stationary. Economies reported in this paper involved a sequence of overlapping generations of three or four individuals; each individual lived for two periods. In their young age individuals were endowed with chips that could be traded for fiat money wish the individuals of the old generation. In their old age, individuals could exchange their units o flat money for the consumption good. Results of the experiments exhibit some support for the stationary solution. The results are robust to two designs of exchange institutions (double oral auctior and supply schedule auction) and to two different endogenous ways of converting money into chips at the end of the game (average price prevailing during the last period the game is actually played and the average price forecast made during the last period the game is actually played).A preliminary version of this paper was presented at the meeting of the Economic Science Association and at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. The authors are grateful for comments received from various participants at both presentations. Financial support was provided by the McKnight Foundation, the Honeywell Foundation, National Science Foundation (SES 89-12552), and Richard. M. and Margaret Cyert Family Funds.     

Stock prices,production and interest rates: Comparison of three European countries with the USA

This paper investigates the relationships between stock returns, changes in production, and changes in interest rates in three European countries: France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The results obtained using annual data are much more conclusive than those obtained using quarterly data. Stock returns are affected by current changes in interest rates and by future changes in production. The dependence on changes in interest rates seems to be higher than on changes in production. Furthermore, the influence of future changes in production on stock returns diminishes substantially when contemporaneous changes in interest rates are taken into account. With reference to these points, the European markets behave in a similar fashion, but are in sharp contrast with the U.S. market.I am very grateful to Kay Davidson, Patric Hendershott and two anonymous referees for useful comments and suggestions. I am solely responsible for all remaining errors.     

Incorporating Collateral Value Uncertainty in Loss Given Default Estimates and Loan-to-value Ratios

We present a model of risky debt in which collateral value is correlated with the possibility of default. The model is then used to study the expected loss given default, primarily as a function of collateral. The results obtained could prove useful for estimating losses given default in many popular models of credit risk which assume them constant. We also examine the problem of determining sufficient collateral to secure a loan to a desired extent. In addition to bank practitioners, regulators might find our analysis useful in reviewing banks’ lending standards relative to current collateral values. In particular, the current proposals for The New (Basel) Capital Accord involve options for the use of banks’ own loss given default estimates which might benefit from the analysis in this paper.     

Competition For Order Flow, Market Quality, And Price Discovery In The Nasdaq 100 Index Tracking Stock

We investigate competition for order flow, market quality, and price discovery in the Nasdaq 100 Index Tracking Stock (QQQ). The QQQ, an AMEX‐listed, exchange‐traded fund, is the most actively traded security in the U.S. equities market. On July 31, 2001, the NYSE began trading the QQQ, marking the first time it traded securities of companies it does not list. The greatest volume of trading takes place on electronic communication networks (ECNs), following by trading on the AMEX and the NYSE. Most of the block trades are executed on the AMEX, where the bid‐ask spreads are narrower. We find that ECNs contribute the most to the price‐discovery process. The spreads on all trading platforms have decreased and market quality and price discovery have improved since QQQ shares have traded on the NYSE.     

Option pricing in the presence of natural boundaries and a quadratic diffusion term

This paper uses a probabilistic change-of-numeraire technique to compute closed-form prices of European options to exchange one asset against another when the relative price of the underlying assets follows a diffusion process with natural boundaries and a quadratic diffusion coefficient. The paper shows in particular how to interpret the option price formula in terms of exercise probabilities which are calculated under the martingale measures associated with two specific numeraire portfolios. An application to the pricing of bond options and certain interest rate derivatives illustrates the main results.     

Long term dependence in stock returns

We show, using the modified rescaled range statistic, that none of the return series of indices of five European countries, the United States and Japan exhibits long term dependence. This statistic — introduced by Lo (1991) — correct Hurst's (1951) ‘classical’ rescaled range statistic for short term dependence. We also report the classical rescaled range statistic after adjusting the series for short term dependence. This procedure shows, for cases where the results of the modified rescaled range statistic are mixed, that no long term dependence can be found. Simulations indicate reasonable power of this adjustment procedure. Furthermore, we find that estimates of the Hurst exponent, a related measure of long term dependence, are also biased by short term dependence. Simulations show that this measure — that has recently attracted growing interest — cannot distinguish between models with or without long term dependence.