“限广令”后的中国广告业猜想

2011年11月28日,广电总局下发《〈广播电视广告播出管理办法〉的补充规定》,决定自2012年1月1日起,全国各电视台播出电视剧时,每集电视剧中间不得再以任何形式插播广告。本文基于这项规定,探讨今后中国广告的发展趋势,提出了六大变化猜想,并阐述这些变化对不同主体带来的多赢可能性的假设。     

VB6.0的MSComm通信控件应用举例

本文介绍了基于VB6.0的MSComm通信控件相关理论,并以一个实例演示了MSComm控件的主要属性。     

HIV/AIDS AND BANKING STABILITY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

We argue that the recent large increase in deposits’ turnover in many developing countries with high HIV/AIDS prevalence is associated with the spread of the disease. The point is that the need to pay for individual treatments force large‐scale withdrawals of households’ deposits, and that those large withdrawals put the banking industry at risk. In a standard demand‐deposit model where the HIV/AIDS prevalence among depositors is random, we show that (1) the probability of a large‐scale banking failure without a bank run increases as the odds of any prevalence level increases, and (2) it is always optimal to deposit, and thus to accept the risk of banking failure, to maintain long‐term investments in place.     

Modeling the act of measurement in the social sciences

Motivated by time-series experimental designs, we develop a model of the act of measurement in the social sciences. Meaningful measurements are represented by operators that obey a non-commutative algebra. Thus, the order in which information is extracted matters. In addition, responses to questions about an attribute depend on whether information about another attribute has previously been extracted. Measurement “forces” the subject to obtain one value of the attribute, the one measured by the observer. An uncertainty principle imposes a fundamental limit on the ability to extract detailed information about two distinct attributes within a short period of time.     

Capital regulation, bank competition, and financial stability

We analyze capital requirements if banks compete for loans and deposits. Banks and firms are subject to a risk-shifting problem. The ambiguous effect of competition on banks’ risk-taking translates into an ambiguous effect of capital requirements on financial stability.     

Democracy and environmental quality

We develop and estimate an econometric model of the relationship between several local and global air pollutants and economic development while allowing for critical aspects of the socio-political-economic regime of a State. We obtain empirical support for our hypothesis that democracy and its associated freedoms provide the conduit through which agents can exercise their preferences for environmental quality more effectively than under an autocratic regime, thus leading to decreased concentrations or emissions of pollution. However, additional factors such as income inequality, age distribution, education, and urbanization may mitigate or exacerbate the net effect of the type of political regime on pollution, depending on the underlying societal preferences and the weights assigned to those preferences by the State.     

On the robustness of simple and optimal monetary policy rules

This is a discussion of the paper “Simple versus Optimal Rules as Guides to Policy” by Brock, Durlauf, Nason and Rondina (BDNR) presented in November 2006 at Carnegie-Mellon University under the auspices of the Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy. I review the authors’ arguments, present a few suggestions for extension and outline where I think at least one strand of the literature should be heading.     

The importance of seasonal variability and tactical responses to risk on estimating the economic benefits of integrated weed management

Seasonal variability is an important source of risk faced by farmers and, regardless of an individual's attitude to risk, there are options to tactically adjust production strategies as the outcomes of risk become known. The objective of this article is to measure the economic benefits of alternative approaches to managing weeds, one of the most serious production problems in Australian cropping systems. A bioeconomic model that combines weed biology, crop growth and economics is developed to value the effects of seasonal variability and the role of tactical responses and sequential decision making in determining an optimal integrated weed management strategy. This shows that there are substantial differences in the measured long‐term benefits from deterministic and stochastic simulations. It is concluded that, for research evaluation of technologies that involve complex biological and dynamic systems, ignoring the impacts of seasonal variability, responses to risk and sequential decision making can lead to an incorrect estimate of the economic benefits of a technology. In this case study of optimal weed management strategies in Australia, the size of the error is high.     

Inverse of the Berge maximum theorem

Summary We consider an inverse of the Berge maximum theorem. We also give an application of our result to fixed point theory.