Fuzzy logic,trading uncertainty and technical trading

From the market microstructure perspective, technical analysis can be profitable when informed traders make systematic mistakes or when uninformed traders have predictable impacts on price. However, chartists face a considerable degree of trading uncertainty because technical indicators such as moving averages are essentially imperfect filters with a nonzero phase shift. Consequently, technical trading may result in erroneous trading recommendations and substantial losses. This paper presents an uncertainty reduction approach based on fuzzy logic that addresses two problems related to the uncertainty embedded in technical trading strategies: market timing and order size. The results of our high-frequency exercises show that ‘fuzzy technical indicators’ dominate standard moving average technical indicators and filter rules for the Euro-US dollar (EUR-USD) exchange rates, especially on high-volatility days.     

A. Palmström

Abstract

1. Mr R. Frisch has recently ¹ Ragnar Frisch: Sur les semi-invariants et moments employés dans l'étude des distributions statistiques, Oslo, 1926 (Det Norske VidenskabsAkademis Skrifter, II N:o 3), p. 26. established the interesting identity     

The sufficiency strategy: Would rich-world frugality lower environmental impact?

One alleged weapon against unsustainable environmental impact is for the wealthy to consume less. This sufficiency strategy is to complement the efficiency strategy of lowering ratios of resource inputs to economic outputs; the former would reduce the affluence factor in I = PAT, the latter the technology factor. That the latter strategy suffers from a consumption rebound is widely recognized. This paper identifies a similar rebound when the affluence factor is autonomously lowered: The lower initial demand lowers prices, which in turn stimulates new demand by others. The strategy moreover addresses only the rich, raising questions of its theoretical maximum efficacy. Its proponents usually conflate frugality with the North-South dichotomy and intragenerational with intergenerational equity. Moreover, there are difficulties with the supporting arguments that frugality is good for one’s own sake as well as for the environment, and that the rich should ‘lead the way’ to living more lightly. Personal behaviour change is furthermore not a substitute for international political efforts. Finally, since all changes in right-side factors of the I = PAT equation change other right-side factors, such indirect attacks on impact should be abandoned in favor of supply and emissions quotas.     

Information aggregation in financial markets with career concerns

What are the equilibrium features of a dynamic financial market in which traders care about their reputation for ability? We modify a standard sequential trading model to include traders with career concerns. We show that this market cannot be informationally efficient: there is no equilibrium in which prices converge to the true value, even after an infinite sequence of trades. We characterize the most revealing equilibrium of this game and show that an increase in the strength of the traders' reputational concerns has a negative effect on the extent of information that can be revealed in equilibrium but a positive effect on market liquidity.     

Tari–tax reforms and market access

Reducing taris and increasing consumption taxes is a standard IMF advice to countries that want to open up their economy without hurting government finances. Indeed, theoretical analysis of such a tari–tax reform shows an unambiguous increase in welfare and government revenues. The present paper examines whether the country that implements such a reform ends up opening up its markets to international trade, i.e. whether its market access improves. It is shown that this is not necessarily so. We also show that, comparing to the reform of only taris, the tari–tax reform is a less efficient proposal to follow both as far as it concerns market access and welfare.     

Self-interest, sympathy and the origin of endowments

We explore whether the recent laboratory findings that suggest the origin of endowment matters in simple bargaining games are actually due to contextual shifts of relative effort and deservingness. Results support previous findings of endowment origin yielding more self-interested behavior.     

2012年澳网李娜vs小克技术统计分析

通过对2012年澳网女子单打李娜对阵克里斯特尔斯的比赛情况分析,从中找出其在比赛中的优势与不足,并提出改进措施,旨在为我国女子网球技术训练和发展提供参考。     

服务化商业模式创新架构与要素研究——以利丰为例

商业模式是当今企业核心竞争力形成和发展的关键问题,特别是在产业供应链服务化背景下,如何有效地构造和推动商业模式的创新和可持续是企业供应链管理的核心所在。因此,究竟如何认识服务化商业模式变革的原动力,以及模式建立和演进过程中的组织结构、创新要素和治理方式是一个需要不断深入研究的课题。本文基于国内外有关商业模式相关理论研究,提出了服务化商业模式创新的架构和要素并运用利丰的单案例研究,分析了该理论模式的核心内容和主要路径在实践中的适用性,即服务化商业模式创新的原动力对模式结构选择的影响,以及结构与创新要素和创新治理之间的关系。     

考虑批量订货的易腐农产品配送中心选址方法

为提高物流管理绩效、降低物流运作成本,考虑到配送中心的批量订货和作业能力限制,建立了易腐农产品配送中心选址问题的0-1整数非线性规划模型,并利用Lingo 9.0软件进行了模型求解.利用该模型可以确定配送中心的位置和各配送中心与零售店之间的配送关系,并可得到配送中心的订货周期和订货批量.最后,通过算例验证了模型的有效性.     

Trajectories in human domination of ecosystems: Human appropriation of net primary production in the Philippines during the 20th century

The “human appropriation of net primary production” (HANPP) has been suggested as a comprehensive indicator to measure impacts of human land use on ecosystems. It accounts for (a) human-induced changes in biological productivity and (b) biomass harvest. This study presents an analysis of aboveground HANPP in the Philippines between 1910 and 2003, a period characterized by massive deforestation and increases in land use intensity and biomass extraction. Results show a steep increase of aboveground HANPP from just below 35% of potential productivity in 1910 to slightly above 60% in 1970 and constant values since then. Large-scale changes in land cover and agricultural practices were the main direct determinants of this trajectory in HANPP. Remarkably, HANPP grew at much slower pace than population did: While the amount of NPP appropriated by humans doubled throughout the period, population increased by a factor ten. Increasing efficiency in terms of biomass extraction per unit of area, relying on ever-increasing inputs, and changes in the nation's physical biomass trade balance were of major importance for this difference in growth rates. In the coming decades, the Philippines will have to face the challenge to meet increases in biomass demand without putting even higher strains on the ecosystems.