探究“新零销售”模式下影响销售量的相关因素

在新零销售模式的推动下,客户越来越倾向于消费个性化的商品。为了精准预测客户的消费需求,论文以单款单色产品为研究对象,通过建立多元回归分析的数学模型,来探究影响商品销售量的相关因素。经过分析发现,除了一些定性因素外,定量因素对销售量也产生了一定的影响,其中实际花费总金额、实际销售单价、库存数等定量因素对销售量的影响较大,且各个变量之间具有相关性,所以电商平台应特别关注这三个变量的影响。     

基于杜邦分析法的格力电器偿债能力分析

论文通过分析格力电器偿债能力,发现主要的几个问题是流动负债和现金比率过高、资本结构风险过高、财务杠杆过高。论文提出了应对这些问题的一些对策和看法,主要是利用充足的现金发展多元化产品、对资本结构进行合理改变和对财务杠杆进行适当调整。     

Sovereign and bank dependence in the eurozone: A multi-scale approach using wavelet-network analysis

This study establishes time–frequency networks of sovereign and bank contagion in the eurozone over the period 2009–2021. By applying discrete wavelet transformation, daily CDS premia of sovereigns and systemically important banks are decomposed into multi-horizon components to specify directed and dependence-weighted networks. Dynamic analysis shows that the network connectivity and the strength of the dependencies are significantly lower after the introduction of the European Banking Union in 2014. While the strength effect is pronounced across all time horizons, the network connectivity only reduces in the short and medium run. This provides evidence that the new regulatory framework promotes financial stability but is more effective in the short and medium horizons. The consideration of the COVID-19 pandemic as a real-life stress test confirms these findings as the strength of the dependencies keeps at significantly lower levels.     

Network based evidence of the financial impact of Covid-19 pandemic

How much the largest worldwide companies, belonging to different sectors of the economy, are suffering from the pandemic? Are economic relations among them changing? In this paper, we address such issues by analyzing the top 50 S&P companies by means of market and textual data. Our work proposes a network analysis model that combines such two types of information to highlight the connections among companies with the purpose of investigating the relationships before and during the pandemic crisis. In doing so, we leverage a large amount of textual data through the employment of a sentiment score which is coupled with standard market data. Our results show that the COVID-19 pandemic has largely affected the US productive system, however differently sector by sector and with more impact during the second wave compared to the first.     

Timing of environmental inspections: survival of the compliant

Environmental inspection agencies have limited resources. A natural response to this shortage of resources is targeting and this targeting policy leads to higher compliance than random inspections. This paper uses individual inspection data on the inspection policy of the environmental agency for the textile industry in Flanders (Belgium). We distinguish between three types of inspections and use a survival model to show that the environmental agency inspects firms in a non-random way. Even though the agency solves most environmental problems, it can increase compliance by using the deterrence effect of more stringent inspections and sanctions.      

Do we really care about Biodiversity?

This paper addresses from an economic perspective the issue of global biodiversity conservation. It challenges the perception that the world really cares a great deal about biodiversity and is prepared to pay the full cost of maintaining this stock of natural capital. Despite the existence of a plethora of international agreements there still seems to be a global ‘deficit of care’ surrounding efforts to combat challenges such as those posed by global warming and biodiversity conservation. More light can be thrown on the degree of care by measuring both the actual expenditures and the stated willingness to pay for biodiversity conservation. However, actual expenditures are much lower than willingness to pay estimates recorded in the published literature. Using the criteria that the ‘right’ amount of conservation effort is one where the marginal economic benefits from conservation just equal the marginal costs of conservation, the paper explores the biodiversity conservation conundrum and concluded that, on the available evidence, the world does not care too much about this natural capital stock and bequests to future generations. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Potential user factors driving adoption of IPTV. What are customers expecting from IPTV?

Internet Protocol Television (IPTV), the convergence services of television and Internet, is being rapidly developed around the world. The advent of digital technologies has changed the convergence market dramatically with the wide diffusion of the convergent services. Using the Technology Acceptance Model as a conceptual framework and method of logistic regression, this research analyzes the demand for IPTV by drawing data from 452 consumers. Individuals' responses to questions about whether they accept IPTV are collected and combined with observations of their socio-economic status and intrinsic/extrinsic factors modified from the Technology Acceptance Model. Results of logistic regression show two variables (intrinsic and extrinsic factors) that seem to explain what influences consumer behavior towards adopting IPTV. Overall, the logistic regression model explains over 50% of the variance in the IPTV adoption. The variances shed light on the multi-open platform environment that IPTV will forge.     

保险公司偿付能力恶化预测研究

文章在分析公司财务预测研究方法应用前提的基础上,运用MDA模型和Logistic线性回归模型预测方法对我国保险公司偿付能力恶化进行预测研究。结果表明两个主流模型均能在保险公司偿付能力恶化前1~2年较好地进行预测,但是由于两类错估率的不同,MDA模型要优于Logistic模型。     

Noisy chaotic dynamics in commodity markets

The nonlinear testing and modeling of economic and financial time series has increased substantially in recent years, enabling us to better understand market and price behavior, risk and the formation of expectations. Such tests have also been applied to commodity market behavior, providing evidence of heteroskedasticity, chaos, long memory, cyclicity, etc. The present evaluation of futures price behavior confirms that the resulting price movements can be random, suggesting noisy chaotic behavior. Prices could thus follow a mean process that is dynamic chaotic, coupled with a variance that follows a GARCH process. Our conclusion is that models of this type could be constructed to assist in forecasting prices in the short run but not over long run time periods.First version received: June 2001/Final version received: March 2003     

Evaluating Projects and Assessing Sustainable Development in Imperfect Economies

We are interested in three related questions:(1) How should accounting prices be estimated?(2) How should we evaluate policy change in animperfect economy? (3) How can we check whetherintergenerational well-being will be sustainedalong a projected economic programme? We do notpresume that the economy is convex, nor do weassume that the government optimizes on behalfof its citizens. We show that the same set ofaccounting prices should be used both forpolicy evaluation and for assessing whether ornot intergenerational welfare along a giveneconomic path will be sustained. We also showthat a comprehensive measure of wealth,computed in terms of the accounting prices, canbe used as an index for problems (2) and (3)above. The remainder of the paper is concernedwith rules for estimating the accounting pricesof several specific environmental naturalresources, transacted in a few well knowneconomic institutions.