基于主成分分析的多元线性回归用水量模型研究——以安徽省为例

用水量的准确预测对水资源规划具有重要意义。根据统计资料,选取了八项主要影响用水量变化的指标。按照主成分分析法原理,运用少数综合因子对影响用水量变化的原有八项指标进行了综合和简化,并研究其贡献率及综合效应;分析了用水量增长的特点,选用Logistic方程对综合因子进行回归分析;结合多元线性回归方法,建立了安徽省用水量模型;拟合结果表明,模型具有较高的精度;运用该模型,对安徽省2010年的用水量进行了预测;为水资源规划与管理提供参考依据。     

Mean-variance hedging for interest rate models¶with stochastic volatility

The mean-variance hedging approach for pricing and hedging claims in incomplete markets was originally introduced for risky assets. The aim of this paper is to apply this approach to interest rate models in the presence of stochastic volatility, seen as a consequence of incomplete information. We fix a finite number of bonds such that the volatility matrix is invertible and provide an explicit formula for the density of the variance-optimal measure which is independent of the chosen times of maturity. Finally, we compute the mean-variance hedging strategy for a caplet and compare it with the optimal stategy according to the local risk minimizing approach. Received: 14 July 2000 / Accepted: 10 April 2001     

Thermodynamics and process analysis for future economic scenarios

Economists are increasingly interested in forecasting future costs and benefits of policies for dealing with materials/energy fluxes, polluting emissions and environmental impacts on various scales, from sectoral to global. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are currently popular because they project demand and industrial structure into the future, along an equilibrium path. But they are applicable only to the extent that structural changes occur in or near equilibrium, independent of radical technological (or social) change. The alternative tool for analyzing economic implications of scenario assumptions is to use Leontief-type Input-Output (I-O) models. I-O models are unable to endogenize structural shifts (changing I-O coefficients). However, this can be a virtue when considering radical rather than incremental shifts. Postulated I-O tables can be used independently to check the internal consistency of scenarios. Or I-O models can be used to generate scenarios by linking them to econometric macro-drivers (which can, in principle, be CGE models). Explicit process analysis can be integrated, in principle, with I-O models. This hybrid scheme provides a natural means of satisfying physical constraints, especially the first and second laws of thermodynamics. This is important, to avoid constructing scenarios based on physically impossible processes. Process analysis is really the only available tool for constructing physically plausible alternative future I-O tables, and generating materials/energy and waste emissions coefficients. Explicit process analysis also helps avoid several problems characteristic of pure CGE or I-O models, viz. (1) aggregation errors (2) inability to handle arbitrary combinations of co-product and co-input relationships and (3) inability to reflect certain non-linearities such as internal feedback loops.     

我国中小企业融资问题的误区与对策

本文通过深入分析目前我国中小企业融资问题认识上存在的五个误区，即银行歧视中小企业、受制于风险投资、直接融资门槛高、只能依赖外部融资、地方政府支持不够，提出了解决中小企业融资问题的对策。     

经济类(非会计学)专业会计与财务知识模块教学改革研究——基于襄樊经济学院的实践

本文认为,经济类(非会计学)专业学生实施会计教育,要从会计与财务管理知识体系的再组织创新研究开始,进行网络环境下会计学课程教材及教学内容体系、教学方法与手段和实验环节等方面改革与实践。构建现代信息技术与课程整合的“主导—主体—主线”探究式教学模式,使经济类(非会计学)学科的学生在学时数有限情况下掌握会计学的基本理论和方法,提高学生创造性地应用会计信息进行经济决策的能力。     

曝气生物滤池及其填料作用机理

介绍了曝气生物滤池及其填料的应用情况和研究进展,对曝气生物滤池反应动力学以及其填料作用机理等方面的研究进展进行了研究,概述了影响曝气生物滤池运行的主要因素,同时提出了今后曝气生物滤池的发展方向。     

基于QFD的物流战略规划

分析了应用质量功能展开进行物流战略规划的意义，将物流战略规划分解为系统收集基础信息，推演，评价，整合物流战略目标四个步骤，并基于QFD方法分别进行了阐述。     

一种基于佳点集遗传算法的物流配送网络优化

首先根据实际问题分析了物流配送网络优化模型的各个关键组成部分,包括优化目标、决策变量和约束条件,并针对目前物流配送网络优化算法中存在的一些问题提出了一种新的算法,其核心是佳点集遗传算法。该算法编码采用prufer num ber结构,变异和交叉概率自适应选择。     

基于CRM理念的企业电子商务实施

通过CRM理念指导企业电子商务实施，帮助企业建立更加完善的客户关系，提高客户满意度，进而提高企业核心竞争力。本文从CRM理念和CRM软件两方面阐述CRM理论并分析电子商务与CRM之间的关系。研究如何以CRM理念指导企业电子商务的实施，并针对实施的不同阶段提出相应的措施。     

国有企业资本结构分析

资本结构问题是国有企业最突出的问题之一。解决好这个问题，没有现成的模式可供借鉴。本文紧密结合我国实际，深入分析我国国有企业资本结构问题的性质和特点，针时性地提出几条措施，建议在现代科学理论指导下，增强意识，增加知识，增长见识，锻炼胆识，努力探索和积极实践适合我国国情的资本结构优化机制。