排序方式: 共有54条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
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我国财政科技投入与经济增长的协整关系 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
利用单位根平稳性检验和协整检验的理论,研究1978-2005年度我国财政科技投入与经济增长的关系.国家财政用于科技的投入对经济增长具有重要的推动作用,而经济增长对财政科技投入有一定的拉动作用. 相似文献
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江苏省对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证分析 总被引:11,自引:0,他引:11
改革开放以来,江苏省经济飞速发展。同时,江苏的对外贸易也出现了快速的增长。针对理论界关于对外贸易是否促进经济发展的争论,本文通过对江苏省1985--2004年的相关数据的实证分析,运用平稳性检验、协整检验、Granger因果检验等手段,揭示了进出口和经济增长存在长期的稳定关系。最后,为江苏省对外贸易乃至整个经济的可持续发展提出了相应的政策建议。 相似文献
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Modeling and forecasting of stock index volatility with APARCH models under ordered restriction
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Milton Abdul Thorlie Lixin Song Muhammad Amin Xiaoguang Wang 《Statistica Neerlandica》2015,69(3):329-356
This article examines volatility models for modeling and forecasting the Standard & Poor 500 (S&P 500) daily stock index returns, including the autoregressive moving average, the Taylor and Schwert generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), the Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkle GARCH and asymmetric power ARCH (APARCH) with the following conditional distributions: normal, Student's t and skewed Student's t‐distributions. In addition, we undertake unit root (augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillip–Perron) tests, co‐integration test and error correction model. We study the stationary APARCH (p) model with parameters, and the uniform convergence, strong consistency and asymptotic normality are prove under simple ordered restriction. In fitting these models to S&P 500 daily stock index return data over the period 1 January 2002 to 31 December 2012, we found that the APARCH model using a skewed Student's t‐distribution is the most effective and successful for modeling and forecasting the daily stock index returns series. The results of this study would be of great value to policy makers and investors in managing risk in stock markets trading. 相似文献
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Salah A. Nusair 《International economic journal》2013,27(4):467-489
Previous studies on PPP have tested either the null hypothesis of non-stationary or the null of a stationary real exchange rate and used the US as the base country and focused on industrialized countries. It has been argued that testing either null is insufficient to confirm the presence of PPP. It has also been noticed that the results are sensitive to the choices of the base country; for instance, the US versus Germany. In contrast to previous studies, this paper uses different unit root tests, confirmatory analysis, and different base countries to test PPP for a sample of developing countries in Asia during the current float. Overall, the results do not seem to be sensitive to the choice of the base country, and joint rejections are not present but joint non-rejections are far more common. Using Perron's test, which allows for a one-time break in the series, the results indicate evidence of stationarity for Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia and Thailand when the US is the base country. When Japan is the base country, evidence of stationarity is detected only for Indonesia. 相似文献
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马章良 《技术经济与管理研究》2013,(5)
浙江省位于中国的东部沿海地区,是中国最富饶的长江三角洲地区省份之一.浙江作为中国一个发达的经济省份,在改革开放以后,浙江省的外商直接投资不断增长,出口结构也不断优化.因此,当前研究外商直接投资对浙江省产业结构的影响,提出有针对性的政策建议,为创造更好的投资环境,更有效的吸引外资和利用外资提供政策参考,具有很强的现实意义.本文利用浙江省1984-2010年的年度经济数据对浙江省FDI和产业结构的关系进行实证分析,从而发现FDI对优化产业结构的作用路径.实证结果表明:外商直接投资对第一产业结构的变化没有直接的原因,而对第二产业、第三产业结构的变化有着直接的原因.通过OLS进行简单线性回归分析,结果发现,平均FDI每增加1个百分点,第二产业上升15.18%;其次,平均FDI每增加1个百分点,第三产业上升8.85%. 相似文献
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Christian Drescher 《Applied economics》2016,48(1):35-51
The recent global financial crisis demonstrated that the simultaneous collapse of asset bubbles in different countries is a major challenge for monetary policy. In order to evaluate determinants of these simultaneous asset bubbles, we detect rational asset bubbles in corporate equity and real estate markets worldwide using forward recursive right-sided ADF tests. Then we create dummy variables for simultaneous asset bubbles and analyse potential determinants using gravity models and spatial economics. Our empirical analysis suggests that simultaneous asset bubbles depend positively upon potential asset demand, capital account openness, monetary conditions, cultural similarities and negatively upon informational frictions and exchange rate flexibility. These findings imply that monetary policy can impede the probability of simultaneous asset bubbles by ensuring sound monetary conditions and choosing a flexible exchange regime. 相似文献
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Tie-Ying Liu 《The journal of international trade & economic development》2018,27(7):761-791
This paper examines the beginning and end of potentially speculative explosive public debt patterns occurring in 29 major OECD countries. The method we use is most appropriate for practical implementation with a time series and delivers a consistent date-stamping strategy for the origination and termination of multiple explosive behaviors. Our results also test that most OECD countries, except for Israel, Luxembourg, and Turkey, have experienced periods of explosive public debt. The stationarity of public debt varies by country. Approximately two-thirds of the explosive periods occurred prior to 2012. Based on the scale, structure, and safety of government debt for dynamic monitoring and evaluation, governments can improve risk management measures. 相似文献
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本文先引入IS-LM-BP模型和AD-AS模型说明中国货币政策因素通过影响石油市场的供需,从而影响石油价格。再采用SVAR模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解,选择国际石油价格、中国工业增加值、狭义货币供应量、广义货币供应量和利率的月度指标对2005年7月~2015年5月国际油价波动的中国货币政策因素进行实证分析。研究发现:五变量间存在均衡关系,同时中国经济发展对油价的影响程度和时效性最大,其次是货币供应量,M1在短期内对油价的影响比M2显著,利率的影响贡献相对较小。在此结论的基础上,结合中国开放度、石油供需市场、供给侧改革等,提出相关政策建议。 相似文献