Modelling Credit Risk for SMEs: Evidence from the U.S. Market

Considering the fundamental role played by small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) in the economy of many countries and the considerable attention placed on SMEs in the new Basel Capital Accord, we develop a distress prediction model specifically for the SME sector and to analyse its effectiveness compared to a generic corporate model. The behaviour of financial measures for SMEs is analysed and the most significant variables in predicting the entities' credit worthiness are selected in order to construct a default prediction model. Using a logit regression technique on panel data of over 2,000 U.S. firms (with sales less than $65 million) over the period 1994–2002, we develop a one-year default prediction model. This model has an out-of-sample prediction power which is almost 30 per cent higher than a generic corporate model. An associated objective is to observe our model's ability to lower bank capital requirements considering the new Basel Capital Accord's rules for SMEs.     

Maximising sustainability of Dutch dairy farming systems for different stakeholders: A modelling approach

A multi-attribute sustainability function is included into a dairy farm LP-model by using Weighted Goal Programming. The created Weighted Linear Goal Programming (WLGP)-model is used to maximise sustainability of different Dutch dairy farming systems and to analyse the impact of: (1) maximisation of individual sustainability aspects (economic, social and ecological sustainability) and (2) maximisation of overall sustainability using stakeholder preferences. Maximising the individual aspects of both dairy farming systems, i.e. conventional and organic, shows the trade-offs between different aspects of sustainability. For conventional as well as organic dairy farming maximum scores are highest for external social sustainability. The conventional dairy farm achieves a slightly higher score for overall sustainability than the organic dairy farm for all stakeholders (i.e. consumers and producers). This shows that it is possible for conventional dairy farms, similar to the conventional farm used in the analysis especially regarding the stocking density and under Dutch policy conditions, to achieve equal sustainability scores in comparison with organic dairy farms. It is concluded that the WLGP model is a suitable tool to analyse the sustainability of different dairy farming systems.     

Heterogeneity effects from market interventions

The aim of this paper is to test whether the European Commission activities generate a heterogeneity effect on the merging parties. A sample of 74 firms involved in 45 contested merger and acquisition operations during the years 1990 to 1999 is used. The methodology is based on the GARCH framework. The main result is that, globally, the DGC interventions seem not to reduce significantly the heterogeneity among investors, except for the operations where it takes strong decisions like prohibition. In these last cases, the signal coming from the DGC encompasses valuable information and is well understood by market participants.     

The use of ex-ante modelling tools in European Impact Assessment: What role does land use play?

Impact Assessment was introduced by the European Commission in 2002 in order to make policy development more transparent and improve the ‘quality’ of European policies. Cross-sectoral consultation, broad participation and the quantitative assessment of the impacts of policies are significant elements of this process. This article specifically addresses the role of tools modelling the impact of policies on land use in Impact Assessment. The choice of a specific modelling tool is conceptualised as an action situation interlinked with other action arenas. The article aims to uncover the institutions structuring the action situation. The outcome of the empirical work suggests that two types of Impact Assessments can be distinguished. Impact Assessments either substantively contribute to the specific policy that the Commission proposes or they legitimise policy choices ex post that have already been adopted. The legislative procedure that applies to a specific policy sector, the policy making culture in the DG and the stakes that are at issue seem to influence whether Impact Assessments contribute to policy development, or legitimise it. Furthermore, the article describes the situation in which desk officers choose a modelling tool throughout Impact Assessment. To advance their careers desk officers aim to produce policy proposals which respond to the issues raised by the actors involved in Impact Assessment and specifically in policy development and, later on, adoption. Therefore, desk officers’ preferences are shaped by the community that is involved in policy development and Impact Assessment. The article describes what role modelling tools play in European Impact Assessment procedures and it names the heuristic of criteria which desk officers use to choose a modelling tool. Besides several technical and data problems of modelling land use impact, it seems to be unlikely that land use will become a significant dimension of Impact Assessment and modelling as it is confronted with an unfavourable institutional environment at the European level.     

Testing for multivariate volatility functions using minimum volume sets and inverse regression

We propose two new types of nonparametric tests for investigating multivariate regression functions. The tests are based on cumulative sums coupled with either minimum volume sets or inverse regression ideas; involving no multivariate nonparametric regression estimation. The methods proposed facilitate the investigation for different features such as if a multivariate regression function is (i) constant, (ii) of a bathtub shape, and (iii) in a given parametric form. The inference based on those tests may be further enhanced through associated diagnostic plots. Although the potential use of those ideas is much wider, we focus on the inference for multivariate volatility functions in this paper, i.e. we test for (i) heteroscedasticity, (ii) the so-called ‘smiling effect’, and (iii) some parametric volatility models. The asymptotic behavior of the proposed tests is investigated, and practical feasibility is shown via simulation studies. We further illustrate our methods with real financial data.     

Option Pricing in ARCH-type Models

ARCH models have become popular for modeling financial time series. They seem, at first, however, to be incompatible with the option pricing approach of Black, Scholes, Merton et al., because they are discrete-time models and possess too much variability. We show that completeness of the market holds for a broad class of ARCH-type models defined in a suitable continuous-time fashion. As an example we focus on the GARCH(1,1)-M model and obtain, through our method, the same pricing formula as Duan, who applied equilibrium-type arguments.     

Calendar Effects on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange

For daily data on a value-weighted index of all shares in the Netherlands (1981-1998), we find abnormally high returns in the pre-Christmas period of the second half of December and around the turn of the month, whereas returns are negative and volatility is relatively high on the Mondays where the previous week's return is below zero. Furthermore, our evidence indicates the presence of an ARCH(1) effect. Our intraday results based on an equal-weighted index of the leading shares in the Netherlands (1986-1993) reveal a U-shaped return pattern over each trading day, Monday morning excluded. Moreover, our tests reveal repeated price adjustments mostly in the same direction around and over non-trading periods. We argue that the arrival of private information is affected by strategic and behavioral factors incompatible with the risk-return paradigm.     

Retail Store Loyalty Management via an Analysis of Heterogeneity of the Service Elements

This paper follows a line of research opened up by a series of authors who use a marketing approach for the study of retail service productivity. Without departing from the line of reasoning established by these authors, the main purpose of this paper is to detect possible differences in marketing productivity within and between different types of retailing services, using a research model that includes both the firm's effort and that of the customer. The two services selected for this purpose are grocery outlets and petrol stations.     

居民消费价格指数ARCH族模型检验

居民消费价格指数(CPI)在一定程度上反映了通货膨胀或紧缩程度,往往成为各种研究关注的重点。应用GARCH类模型对月度CPI的波动性进行了建模.结果表明该模型能有效拟合月度CPI的波动性特征;并根据分析得出我国市场经济还不成熟。     

Price Common Volatility or Volume Common Volatility? Evidence from Taiwan's Exchange Rate and Stock Markets

This paper investigates the common volatility structure of stock and exchange rate markets of Taiwan. The two markets are often linked together and we are interested in knowing whether price or volume is a good proxy to pursue this issue. We claim that Taiwanese government interventions distort the timing of conventional price volatility clustering in the two markets. The unrestricted trading volumes reveal more information regarding the market than price. We find that common volatility does exist in the stock and exchange markets and this fact is uncovered more easily by using trading volume than by using prices.