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21.
理论文献已经证明了细分数据模型的内生性和加总过程产生的内生性是加总偏误的根本原因。但是由于内生性涉及误差项与回归量之间的相关性问题,试图通过实证方法审视这两类内生性对加总偏误的影响变得比较困难,而数值模拟却是一个较为理想的方法。在数值模拟中,我们通过控制随机变量的分布形式以及随机变量之间的相关程度,进而对两类内生性因素产生的加总偏误进行全面细致的考察。本文的研究将为加总偏误的内生性解释提供有力证据。 相似文献
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23.
Inspired by the recent literature on aggregation theory, we attempt to relate the long-range correlation of the stock return volatility to the heterogeneity of the investors' expectations concerning the level of the future volatility. Based on a semi-parametric model of investors' anticipations, we make the connection between the distributional properties of the heterogeneity parameters and the auto-covariance/auto-correlation functions of the realized volatility. We report different behaviors, or change of convention, the observation of which depends on the market phase under consideration. In particular, we report and justify the fact that the volatility exhibits significantly longer memory during phases of a speculative bubble than during the recovery phase following the collapse of a speculative bubble. 相似文献
24.
In the valuation of the Solvency II capital requirement, the correct appraisal of risk dependencies acquires particular relevance. These dependencies refer to the recognition of risk diversification in the aggregation process and there are different levels of aggregation and hence different types of diversification. For instance, for a non-life company at the first level the risk components of each single line of business (e.g. premium, reserve, and CAT risks) need to be combined in the overall portfolio, the second level regards the aggregation of different kind of risks as, for example, market and underwriting risk, and finally various solo legal entities could be joined together in a group. Solvency II allows companies to capture these diversification effects in capital requirement assessment, but the identification of a proper methodology can represent a delicate issue. Indeed, while internal models by simulation approaches permit usually to obtain the portfolio multivariate distribution only in the independence case, generally the use of copula functions can consent to have the multivariate distribution under dependence assumptions too. However, the choice of the copula and the parameter estimation could be very problematic when only few data are available. So it could be useful to find a closed formula based on Internal Models independence results with the aim to obtain the capital requirement under dependence assumption. A simple technique, to measure the diversification effect in capital requirement assessment, is the formula, proposed by Solvency II quantitative impact studies, focused on the aggregation of capital charges, the latter equal to percentile minus average of total claims amount distribution of single line of business (LoB), using a linear correlation matrix. On the other hand, this formula produces the correct result only for a restricted class of distributions, while it may underestimate the diversification effect. In this paper we present an alternative method, based on the idea to adjust that formula with proper calibration factors (proposed by Sandström (2007)) and appropriately extended with the aim to consider very skewed distribution too. In the last part considering different non-life multi-line insurers, we compare the capital requirements obtained, for only premium risk, applying the aggregation formula to the results derived by elliptical copulas and hierarchical Archimedean copulas. 相似文献
25.
George C. Bitros 《The Review of Austrian Economics》2008,21(4):301-328
This paper centers on the structure of capital and the useful lives of its components by considering an economy with two representative
firms, one producing a necessity and another producing a luxury. This difference determines their reinvestment opportunities.
Therefore, while the one applies replacement, the other adopts scrapping. However, as these capital policies lead to different
service lives, the analysis confronts the issues raised by Miller (Review of Income and Wealth 29:284–296, 1982, Review of Income and Wealth 36:67–82, 1990) and deals with them by drawing on Haavelmo’s (A study in the theory of investment, Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1960) suggestions regarding the aggregation of capital. Among other findings, it turns out that the simulation results are highly
robust, thus demonstrating that real-world implications may be even stronger than strictly suggested by the model.
相似文献
George C. BitrosEmail: |
26.
Consumption dynamics under information processing constraints 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper studies how “rational inattention” (RI)—a type of information processing constraint proposed by Sims [Sims, C.A., 2003. Implications of rational inattention, Journal of Monetary Economics 50 (3), 665–690]—affects the joint dynamics of consumption and income in a permanent income model with general income processes. Specifically, I propose an analytical approach to solve the multivariate permanent income model with RI and examine its implications for optimal consumption, saving, and welfare. It is shown that RI can affect the relative volatility of consumption and provide an endogenous propagation mechanism that disentangles the short-run and long-run responses of consumption to exogenous income shocks. I also explore how aggregation reduces the impact of the RI-induced endogenous noise on consumption and thus increases the smoothness of aggregate consumption. Finally, I compare RI with four alternative hypotheses (habit formation, signal extraction, robustness, and inattentiveness) by examining their implications for the joint behavior of consumption and income. 相似文献
27.
Kjartan Steen-Olsen Anne Owen Edgar G. Hertwich Manfred Lenzen 《Economic Systems Research》2014,26(3):284-302
The past few years have seen the emergence of several global multiregional input–output (MRIO) databases. Due to the cost and complexity of developing such extensive tables, industry sectors are generally represented at a rather aggregate level. Currently, one of the most important applications of input–output analysis is environmental assessments, for which highly aggregate sectors may not be sufficient to yield accurate results. We experiment with four of the most important global MRIO systems available, analyzing the sensitivity of a set of aggregate CO2 multipliers to aggregations in the MRIO tables used to calculate them. Across databases, we find (a) significant sensitivity to background system detail and (b) that sub-sectors contained within the same aggregate MRIO sector may exhibit highly different carbon multipliers. We conclude that the additional information provided by the extra sector detail may warrant the additional costs of compilation, due to the heterogeneous nature of economic sectors in terms of their environmental characteristics. 相似文献
28.
Raymond Robertson Anil Kumar Donald H. Dutkowsky 《Journal of development economics》2009,90(2):237-243
This paper investigates long-run Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) between the US and Mexico. We use a panel of disaggregated price data between the US and Mexico with a long time series to look at two types of aggregation bias. The first is examined in Imbs et al. — which we refer to as estimator aggregation bias — and the second is put forth by Broda and Weinstein — hereafter, data aggregation bias. The findings indicate substantial estimator aggregation bias and data aggregation bias. Although estimates using aggregate data and imposing homogeneous coefficients provide little evidence of PPP, findings with disaggregated data and heterogeneous coefficient estimators offer strong support. The results also suggest the presence of small-sample bias as examined in Chen and Engel, but with little effect on the qualitative results. Tradable goods and non-tradable goods show little distinction in convergence rates. Estimated half-lives are lower under flexible than fixed exchange rates and indicate rapid convergence during the Mexican peso crisis. 相似文献
29.
高等院校是推进协同创新的重要力量,相关研究议题日益受到国内外学者关注。在对高等院校协同创新模式进行研究的基础上,以科技型人才聚集为视角,提出高等院校协同创新复杂系统。通过分析协同创新环境与高等院校协同创新系统的作用过程,基于系统动力学方法构建相应模型,运用Vensim PLE软件进行系统仿真,并利用拟合优度方法验证系统有效性。应用灵敏度分析方法,结合工作实际,得到高等院校协同创新管理启示如下:制定以科技型人才为主导的协同创新战略,强化高等院校协同创新的政策制度支撑,完善高等院校协同创新投入机制。 相似文献
30.
Romeo Danielis Adriana Monte 《International Journal of Sustainable Transportation》2018,12(5):380-395
The contribution of this paper consists in applying several techniques to estimate a composite indicator of sustainable urban mobility for 116 Italian provincial towns, as proposed by Luzzati and Gucciardi (2015). The aim is to provide the decision-maker with a richer set of information on sustainable mobility, making explicit the impact of the techniques used on the values obtained. A set of 16 indicators with a nested structure has been selected and 33 combinations of normalization, weighting, and aggregation techniques are applied. The results are presented by city, by city groupings (size and location), and focusing on the ten largest Italian cities. It is found that small cities perform better in terms of sustainable mobility than medium or large cities. As expected, in some cases (e.g., Milan) the intervals of the results obtained are quite large, indicating that the techniques used to normalize, weight, and aggregate the indicators highly affect the performance indexes. In other cases (e.g., Rome) the results are stable across methodologies. 相似文献