The long shadow of public policy; Barriers to a value-based approach in healthcare procurement

Procurement in the UKs National Health Service (NHS) is facing its most significant financial challenge. Despite the sheer scale and complexities of the public healthcare sector, the Government's solutions are all too often packaged as "collaborate more", "standardise products" and "leverage spend". Unfortunately, these over simplistic solutions take a myopic view of market drivers, conflate spend with potential savings and fail to deliver value. Many contracts have already been commercially optimised yet the funding crisis continues to deepen. New value-based procurement approaches are needed to drive longer-term innovation and cost reduction and to move debates from efficiencies to embrace effectiveness in integrated supply chains. In this research, we adopt the resource-based view (RBV) as a lens to explore the extent to which NHS resources support the strategic adoption of value-based approaches. An empirical case study on a regional cluster of six NHS Trusts in England, confirms the dominance of narrow price-based approaches that create barriers to moving towards longer-term, valuebased procurement. The antecedent roots of price-based approaches are unpicked through a hermeneutic analysis of recent Government commissioned reports to show how these have set the tone, culture and priorities for healthcare procurement in the UK. The analysis provides explanatory power to the case study by illustrating how Government reports have led to, and legitimised the dominance of price-based approaches and caused relational and resource-based barriers to adopting value-based procurement, despite stakeholder enthusiasm. The findings provide unique insights into why public procurement has struggled to reach beyond its traditional cost orientated scope. We contribute to an extended consideration of the RBV in public organisations through identifying the role of the policy environment in determining and legitimatising an organisation's strategic direction.     

人民币实际有效汇率变化对我国进出口的影响——基于SITC两位数下61类商品的研究

基于SITC①两位数下61类商品进出口数据,利用自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)研究实际有效汇率变化对不同商品进出口的影响。主要结论是:第一,从影响范围看,汇率变化对出口商品影响种类要多于进口商品。第二,从影响程度看,出口商品对汇率变动的敏感系数大于进口商品。第三,使用61类商品的总合数据时,出现了"总合偏倚"现象。研究结论的意义在于,制定和实施差别化的产业政策,对汇率敏感度较大的商品,应给予优惠的税率和信贷政策。     

Aggregation in macroeconomic models: an empirical input–output approach

The aggregation level of industries in the Danish macroeconomic model ADAM is examined using a new indicator of aggregation bias. The indicator is decomposed into contributions from the original industries, thereby clearly identifying the aggregation problems which caused the six industry groups of the older versions of ADAM to be disaggregated into the current 19 groups. An aggregation key minimizing the new bias indicator is found: from the microlevel of 64 industries, 18 ‘optimal’ industry groups are formed through ‘clustering’; these groups are very similar to the current ADAM groups. Altogether, the conclusions based on the new indicator closely resemble those reached through years of practical experience.     

On the pooling of cross-sectional and time-series data in the presence of heteroskedasticity

We analyze the effect of heteroskedasticity on log-linear aggregation, and its implications for the pooling of cross-section and aggregate time series data. An empirical analysis of food consumption, based on US family budget survey and aggregate time series data, illustrates.     

Who voted for Brexit? Individual and regional data combined

Previous analyses of the 2016 Brexit referendum used region-level data or small samples based on polling data. The former might be subject to ecological fallacy and the latter might suffer from small-sample bias. We use individual-level data on thousands of respondents in Understanding Society, the UK's largest household survey, which includes the EU referendum question. We find that voting Leave is associated with older age, white ethnicity, low educational attainment, infrequent use of smartphones and the internet, receiving benefits, adverse health and low life satisfaction. These results coincide with corresponding patterns at the aggregate level of voting areas. We therefore do not find evidence of ecological fallacy. In addition, we show that prediction accuracy is geographically heterogeneous across UK regions, with strongly pro-Leave and strongly pro-Remain areas easier to predict. We also show that among individuals with similar socio-economic characteristics, Labour supporters are more likely to support Remain while Conservative supporters are more likely to support Leave.     

Integrated measures of sales, merchandising, and distribution

Managers track marketing performance with measures of sales, distribution, and merchandising. These can be calculated at different levels of aggregation with respect to geographic areas, time periods, and products. To be most useful, performance measures should have parallel and consistent meanings across the different levels. Starting from the decomposition of sales into base and incremental volume as provided by data suppliers at the underlying level of item-store-week, we define a set of performance measures that fit together into a simple model. It is shown that these definitions permit consistent aggregation into analogous measures and models at higher levels. An example drawing on Ocean Spray Cranberries data illustrates the advantages of the measures for comparing marketing performance across levels of aggregation.     

汇率波动对国际贸易的影响综述

自布雷顿森林体系瓦解以来,在国际贸易领域关于汇率波动对进出口贸易影响这一问题的讨论始终没有停止。然而以往文献过多关注汇率水平的影响,忽视汇率波动的影响。为此,将汇率波动对进出口贸易的影响分理论层面和实证层面两个部分对文献进行梳理和总结,通过对已有文献的总结和评述,指出国内关于汇率波动对国际贸易影响研究中的不足以及今后的研究方向。     

Avoiding aggregation bias in demand estimation: A multivariate promotional disaggregation approach

Demand models produce biased results when applied to data aggregated across stores with heterogeneous promotional activity. We show how to modify extant aggregate demand frameworks to avoid this problem. First a consumer-level model is developed, which is then integrated over the heterogeneous stores to arrive at aggregate demand. Our approach is highly practical since it requires only standard scanner data of the type produced by the major vendors. Using data for super-premium ice cream, we apply the proposed methodology to the random coefficients logit demand framework.

AGGREGATION VERSUS DISAGGREGATION IN INPUT–OUTPUT ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENT

Analysts carrying out input–output analyses of environmental issues are often plagued by environmental and input–output data existing in different classifications, with environmentally sensitive sectors sometimes being aggregated in the economic input–output database. In principle there are two alternatives for dealing with such misalignment: either environmental data have to be aggregated into the input–output classification, which entails an undesirable loss of information, or input–output data have to be disaggregated based on fragmentary information. In this article, I show that disaggregation of input–output data, even if based on few real data points, is superior to aggregating environmental data in determining input–output multipliers. This is especially true if the disaggregated sectors are heterogeneous with respect to their economic and environmental characteristics. The results of this work may help analysts in understanding that disaggregation based on even a small amount of proxy information can improve the accuracy of input–output multipliers significantly. Perhaps, these results will also provide encouragement for preferring model disaggregation to aggregation in future work.     

Measuring national economic performance without using prices

Recent years have seen increasing awareness of the deficiencies of conventionally defined national income as a measure of a nation's overall economic performance. Alternative measures have been proposed involving either the modification of national income accounting conventions, or the abandonment of national income itself in favour of something such as the Genuine Progress Indicator, GPI. However, such alternatives, like national income itself, all involve the use of monetary valuation for aggregation. This paper proposes a new approach to the measurement of national economic performance, which follows naturally from ecological economics as the study of economic activity rooted in a proper appreciation of its material circumstances, and which does not involve using prices for aggregation. The paper gives some results for three variants of the new approach, and compares and discusses them. While this new approach does not purport to provide a single definitive assessment of the sustainability of current economic activity, which is an infeasible goal, it could provide useful inputs to relevant research activity, and to policy analysis and debate.