货币政策如何应对房地产泡沫——中日比较分析

本文通过分析日本货币政策应对房地产泡沫的教训、比较中日两国针对房地产泡沫决策的宏观经济指标以及货币政策不作为的宏观经济影响,得出以下结论:中日两国房地产泡沫的形成具有相似背景,当前中国的宏观经济指标也呈现出与日本资产泡沫形成期类似的特征。考虑到两国银行体系在房地产融资中的相似地位以及同样较高的房地产家庭财富占比,中国在货币政策的应对方面应该紧缩货币以挤压泡沫。     

The Industry Determinants of Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Canadian Producer Prices

This paper models and estimates exchange rate pass-through and its determinants in Canadian manufacturing industries. The paper predicts theoretically that the exchange rate pass-through should be between one and zero, where it is positively affected by the share of tradable inputs in production costs and the domestic firms’ market share, and negatively by the elasticity of marginal cost with respect to output. The sign for the degree of product differentiation is not theoretically clear. Results of estimation indicate that pass-through is incomplete and is mostly affected by the share of tradable inputs in production costs (positively) and the elasticity of marginal cost with respect to output (negatively).     

Pricing the Chicago Board of Trade T-Bond futures

The aim of this paper is to investigate the pricing of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Treasury-Bond futures. The difficulty in pricing it arises from its multiple inter-dependent embedded delivery options, which can be exercised at various times and dates during the delivery month. We consider a general Markov diffusion process model for stochastic interest rates and propose a pricing algorithm that can handle all the delivery rules embedded in the CBOT T-Bond futures. Our procedure combines dynamic programming, finite-elements approximation, and fixed-point evaluation. Numerical illustrations are provided under the one-factor Vasicek and Cox–Ingesoll–Ross models, and under the time in-homogeneous Hull–White model.     

Detecting log-periodicity in a regime-switching model of stock returns

Log-periodic precursors have been identified before most and perhaps all financial crashes of the Twentieth Century, but efforts to statistically validate the leading model of log-periodicity, the Johansen–Ledoit–Sornette (JLS) model, have generally failed. The main feature of this model is that log-harmonic fluctuations in financial prices are driven by similar fluctuations in expected daily returns. Here we search more broadly for evidence of any log-periodic variation in expected daily returns by estimating a regime-switching model of stock returns in which the mean return fluctuates between a high and a low value. We find such evidence prior to the two largest drawdowns in the S&P 500 since 1950. However, if we estimate a log-harmonic specification for the stock index for the same time periods, fixing the frequency and critical time according to the results of the regime-switching model, the parameters do not satisfy restrictions imposed by the JLS model.     

关于资产证券化表外化有关问题的分析

资产证券化表外化的实现,要满足两个条件:一是向SPE的转让要满足会计上的真实出售,二是SPE不能成为转让人的连接对象。本文的内容是关于第一个问题的,并以美国的财务会计准则报告(第140号)为背景,通过分类归纳的形式,达到有利于理清脉络、把握原理、借鉴吸收、跟进规制的效果。     

人民币升值预期、资产升值预期与热钱流入——基于适应性预期理论的实证分析

本文以2005年7月21日人民币汇率形成机制改革以来的宏观经济形势为背景,着重考虑了这段时间以来国内普遍存在的两种预期:人民币升值预期和资产升值预期,并以此为切入点建立了热钱流入与上述两种预期的适应性预期计量模型;根据汇率改革以来相关数据,在估算热钱流入量的基础上运用广义矩估计方法定量分析了人民币升值预期、资产升值预期与热钱流入之间的关系,进一步分析并阐述了两种预期形成过程中的特征和问题;最后本文根据实证结果提出了相关政策建议。     

中国资产价格膨胀与日本泡沫经济的比较与启示

近年来,中国资产价格上涨已经引起了国内外广泛关注,这与日本泡沫经济前期的情况如出一辙。_良好的经济基本面、宽松的资金面和市场信心是推动中日两国资产价格上涨的共同因素。而中日两国长期实行出口导向型经济发展战略,依靠间接融资的金融体制,成为导致两国资产价格膨胀的深层次原因。与日本相比,中国资产价格膨胀可以在较大程度上化解,不会重蹈日本资产泡沫破灭的覆辙。但短时间内资产价格过快上涨,成为经济增长和金融稳定的潜在风险,为此,中国应该积极总结日本泡沫经济时期的经验教训,从日本政府的应对政策中得出重要的启示。     

Portfolio efficiency of a dynamic capital asset pricing model

In the present study we show that, based on equally weighted portfolios of continuously listed Finnish and Swedish stocks, aDynamic Model of Capital Asset Pricing (DCAPM) outperforms the static Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) in the Super Criterion Test. It is demonstrated that the portfolio efficiency of the dynamic model is improved, when using a properly defined transition matrix in the Kalman Filtering Algorithm.The advice and encouragement of Professor Leif Nordberg (Department of Statistics, Åbo Akademi University) is gratefully acknowledged. I thank Jaana Aaltonen for her assistance in monitoring the computer programs. I also thank an anonymous referee for his valuable comments and suggestions for improving the quality of the paper.     

Asset allocation and multivariate position based trading

I add a second risky asset and a risk free bond to the univariate artificial market investigated by Lux and Marchesi (Int J Theor Appl Finance 3(4):675–702, 2000), keeping track of traders aggregate positions and wealth. Asset allocation and security selection are modeled as separate decision processes, as is common practice in financial institutions. Introducing position based trading avoids inconsistencies in traders inventories resulting from the order based setup of the original model, while preserving its ability to reproduce the stylized facts of financial return series.      

Comment on: “Estimating the expected marginal rate of substitution”

The methodology proposed in Flood and Rose [2005. Estimating the expected marginal rate of substitution: a systematic exploration of idiosyncratic risk. Journal of Monetary Economics 52 (5) 951-969] fails to distinguish between the single unique marginal rate of substitution (MRS) process and the class of valid pricing kernels, of which the MRS is but a particular member. Thus, at best, this methodology explores the properties of some arbitrary pricing kernel, which may differ radically from the true MRS. Furthermore, the estimates of the expected MRS proposed by Flood and Rose [2005. Estimating the expected marginal rate of substitution: a systematic exploration of idiosyncratic risk. Journal of Monetary Economics 52 (5) 951-969] are highly correlated with ex post shocks, implying that these estimates are not conditional expectations at all. The cure for this misspecification introduces additional econometric problems, suggesting that the model may, in practice, be poorly identified.