我国高速公路建设融资问题初探

高速公路建设的迅速发展 ,使得项目融资矛盾日益突出。一方面是以财政拨款方式为主的融资渠道无法满足高速公路建设的需要 ;一方面是大量民间资本和国际资本无法顺畅地进入国内高速公路建设市场。文章提出并论证了运用BOT融资和资产证券化 (ABS)方式 ,通过有效地引入国际资本和拓宽民间资本的投资渠道 ,来解决高速公路的资金供需矛盾 ,同时提出加强和完善相应的法律法规是保证BOT融资和资产证券化顺利实施的关键所在。     

利率变动周期与商业银行绩效的实证研究

利率风险的计量、评估、监控是银行市场风险管理的重要内容。科学分析利率波动与银行收益之间关系,进而了解银行资产负债期限特征及利率风险管理水平,对实现我国商业银行资产负债管理科学决策,提升利率风险管理水平意义重大。本文采用Flannery的部分调整模型对我国上市银行的利率风险管理进行长时间窗口实证分析,结果表明:样本银行呈“借短贷长”的资产负债期限特征,利率变动期内其资产负债管理并未为银行带来实质收益,利率风险管理水平有待提高。     

New imported inputs,new domestic products

We study the relationship between new imported inputs and the introduction of new domestic products. To this purpose, we assemble a novel data set covering 25 European countries over 1995–2007 and containing information on domestic production and bilateral trade for the universe of goods. We develop a procedure to identify new imported inputs and new domestic products, while dealing with the complications raised by the yearly changes in the commodity classifications. We augment these data with information on prices and novel estimates of quality. We organize the empirical analysis around a version of the endogenous growth model with expanding variety, in which inputs are allowed to be heterogeneous in terms of quality. In line with this framework, we find three main results. First, new imported inputs have a strong positive effect on product creation in Europe. Second, they work through a combination of mechanisms, allowing countries to benefit from both wider and better sets of intermediate products. Finally, new imported inputs give a substantial boost to output growth in manufacturing.     

Socially responsible investing and stock performance: New empirical evidence for the US and European stock markets

This paper empirically examines the theoretically ambivalent relationship between socially responsible investing (SRI) and stock performance. It contributes to the existing literature by considering both the US and the entire European stock markets and by using consistent world-wide corporate sustainability performance data. Our portfolio analysis from 1998 to 2009 is based on the common four-factor model according to Carhart (1997), which comprises market return, size, value, and momentum factors. We show for the US and the European stock markets that SRI is associated with large-sized firms. The insignificant abnormal stock returns for SRI in both regions are the main result of our paper. Therefore, our study supports the view that SRI stocks are correctly priced by market participants, although we cannot rule out that a corresponding mispricing has existed before the beginning of our observation period in 1998.     

Pricing assets with stochastic cash-flow growth

We model the time series behavior of dividend growth rates, as well as the profitability rate, with a variety of autoregressive moving-average processes, and use the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to derive the appropriate discount rate. One of the most important implications of this research is that the rate of return beta changes with the time to maturity of the expected cash flow, and the degree of mean reversion displayed by the growth rate. We explore the consequences of this observation for three different strands of the literature. The first is for the value premium anomaly, the second for stock valuation and learning about long-run profitability, and the third is for the St. Petersburg paradox. One of the most surprising results is that the CAPM implies a higher rate of return beta for value stocks than growth stocks. Therefore, value stocks must have higher expected returns, and this is what is required theoretically in order to explain the well-known value premium anomaly.     

Bubble into reallocation: How bubbles improve capital allocation in China

This paper develops a theoretical framework to shed lights on the relations between the segmented financial market and the housing bubble in China. In our framework, capital misallocation across firms plays a central role. The segmented financial market causes discrimination against private enterprises and favoritism to state-owned firms. This biased financial system not only gives rise to capital misallocation across firms but also significantly pushes down the equilibrium interest rate in the formal financial market. The overly low interest rate in the formal financial market causes a rational bubble in a dynamically efficient economy. More importantly, the bubble improves capital allocation across firms by crowding out inefficient investment in the state-owned sector. Despite the role of improving capital allocation, bubbles may still reduce welfare by crowding out aggregate capital.     

Cross-sectional quantile regression for estimating conditional VaR of returns during periods of high volatility

Evaluating value at risk (VaR) for a firm’s returns during periods of financial turmoil is a challenging task because of the high volatility in the market. We propose estimating conditional VaR and expected shortfall (ES) for a given firm’s returns using quantile regression with cross-sectional (CSQR) data about other firms operating in the same market. An evaluation using US market data between 2000 and 2020 shows that our approach has certain advantages over a CAViaR model. Identification of low-risk firms and a reduction in computing times are additional advantages of the new method described.     

人民币汇率变动对广西出口商品价格影响研究--基于广西与东盟国家贸易数据

论文选取2005年1月-2013年10月的月度数据实证分析了人民币名义汇率变动对广西出口到东盟国家商品价格的传递效应。结果表明：人民币名义汇率对出口商品价格的传递不完全,广西出口商的市场竞争力较弱,省内企业生产成本对出口价格的影响较小,而东盟国家竞争价格对出口价格的影响非常大。     

农村土地承包经营权融资方式创新——基于镇江市土地流转信托实践

十八届三中全会提出要加快构建新型农业经营体系,赋予农民更多财产权利.在此背景下农村土地流转信托迅速受到各方关注.相比于农村土地承包经营权抵押贷款等融资方式,土地流转信托在坚持农村土地所有权和承包权不变的前提下,发挥了农村土地承包经营权的融资功能,找到了一种既让农民流出土地后获得稳定收益,又帮助各类主体流入土地后获得足够金融支持实现土地高效利用的模式.农民、农业经营者以及信托公司三方以土地流转信托项目为平台,产融结合,实现了农地集约化、专业化、规模化的经营,推动了农地增值、农业增效、农民增收.     

Stability and bifurcation in a simple heterogeneous asset pricing model

Stability and bifurcation analysis of deterministic systems has been widely used in modeling financial markets. We develop a simple pricing model with two types of rational traders, fundamentalists and chartists, in order to study well price behavior in financial markets, we use student t distribution to replace traditional normal distribution to describe fundamental price process. We study the stability and bifurcation of the underling deterministic system and use numerical simulation to study the dynamic of the stochastic system, including autocorrelations structures and high kurtosis of the returns. It is found that the fundamental price becomes stable (unstable) when the activities from both types of traders are balanced (unbalanced).