Long-Term Contracts and Asset Specificity Revisited: An Empirical Analysis of Producer–Importer Relations in the Natural Gas Industry

This paper discusses long-term contracts as a particular organizational form situated somewhere between full vertical integration and short-term, market-based trading in the natural gas industry. We focus on the determinants of the duration of contracts under changing technical, economic, and institutional conditions. Using 311 long-term contracts we find that duration decreases as international market structures grow more competitive, and that contracts linked to an asset-specific investment extend, on average, three years longer.     

优化房地产上市资本结构质量之管见

房地产业是高风险的资本密集型行业,房地产企业的资金来源和资本结构直接影响和制约着房地产企业的稳健经营以及房地产业健康发展。本文以房地产上市公司为侧重,分析我国房地产企业资本结构现状及特征,并对改善房地产企业资本结构提出相关建议。     

浅析保险公司资金运用

保险资金运用是我国现代保险业得以生存和发展的重要支柱。如何加强保险资金运用已成为一个重要课题。本文分析了保险资金运用的方式、原则,并提出了完善保险资金运用的建议。     

实物资产附加值(RAVE~(TM)):经济增加值(EVA)的价值整合管理

EVA在美国已有20余年的历史,国内也有许多公司引入了EVA进行价值管理和薪酬管理。但其主要侧重于资本,不能很好地解释、管理新经济条件下的价值创造。文中讨论了一种新的价值管理的思想:RAVETM,这是一种以价值为导向的、定量化的EVA价值管理的拓展,整合企业的人力资本、顾客资本、供应商资本和资金资本。     

Dynamic asset allocation and consumption under inflation inequality: The impacts of inflation experiences and expectations

Differences in spending patterns and in price increases across goods and services lead to the unequal inflation experiences of households (called inflation inequality). These differences then cause disagreements in inflation expectations and eventually have a significant effect on households’ asset allocation and consumption decisions. The asset allocation model in this paper explains how inflation experiences affect household investment and consumption through corresponding inflation expectations, which are characterized by long-term expected inflation, the impact coefficient of the expected inflation and the correlation between expected inflation and the risky return. Using China's economic data, the empirical results show that significant differences in inflation expectation arise from income gap, regional inequality, different inflation measures and economic sector spending differences. Using the estimated coefficients, the calibration results have policy implications that households need more financing channels to resist inflation, especially in rural areas and in the raw material sector.     

The cross section of international government bond returns

Volatility risk, credit risk, value effect, and momentum are major return drivers in the fixed-income universe. This study offers a four-factor pricing model for international government bonds. The model thoroughly explains the variation of government bond returns and covers a range of more than 60 cross-sectional return patterns in government bond markets, verifying its usefulness for asset pricing. The research was conducted within a sample of bonds from 25 developed and emerging markets for the years 1992 to 2016.     

Distance and beyond: What drives financial flows to emerging economies?

A major theme in the empirical literature is whether country-specific ‘pull’ or external ‘push’ factors drive international capital flows. In this paper we show that pull-push interactions matter: the response of international investors to country-specific developments depends on global volatility/liquidity stress conditions. We model asset-trade behaviour of investors: with limited information, strong institutional quality ‘pulls’ asset demand; mounting tensions in global markets amplify portfolio adjustments. We derive an empirically testable equation for cross-border bank flows to emerging economies (EMEs) and focus on pull-push interactions that trigger financial vulnerabilities. We find that global volatility amplifies demand for institutional quality, prior to the recent crisis, implying that EMEs with weak institutional settings are exposed to sharp capital retrenchments. In the aftermath of the crisis, the liquidity easing in advanced economies drives down concerns for EMEs' developments, boosting flows and challenging EMEs' ability to use capital controls to mitigate unbridled flows.     

Forecasting stock market returns: New technical indicators and two-step economic constraint method

The goal of our paper is to improve the accuracy of stock return forecasts by combining new technical indicators and a new two-step economic constraint forecasting model. Empirical results indicate the stock return forecasts generated by new technical indicators and new economic constraint forecasting model is statistically and economically significant both in-sample and out-of-sample prediction performance. In addition, the prediction performance of new technical indicators and new economic constraint forecasting model is robust for some extension and robustness analysis.     

Disagreement with procyclical beliefs and asset pricing

We consider a pure exchange economy with incomplete information in which the expected growth rate of endowment is unobservable. The economy is populated by two investors, one is rational, but the other irrationally believes that the dynamics of endowment exhibit procyclical feature. Such different opinions about the dynamics of endowment process produce persistent disagreement between the investors. We show that model-implied riskfree rate is procyclical. Further, the procyclical beliefs not only explain the excess volatility puzzle, but also help to explain the mixed results about the relationship between the investors’ belief dispersions and stock return. Moreover, we uncover that the rational investor prefers to short stock positions in good times as the degree of the other investor’s irrationality increasing.