Generalized least squares inference in panel and multilevel models with serial correlation and fixed effects

In this paper, I consider generalized least squares (GLS) estimation in fixed effects panel and multilevel models with autocorrelation. The presence of fixed effects complicates implementation of GLS as estimating the fixed effects will typically render standard estimators of the covariance parameters necessary for obtaining feasible GLS estimates inconsistent. I focus on the case where the disturbances follow an AR(p) process and offer a simple to implement bias-correction for the AR coefficients. The usefulness of GLS and the derived bias-correction for the parameters of the autoregressive process is illustrated through a simulation study which uses data from the Current Population Survey.     

Management disclosure bias and audit services

This paper considers the level of bias observed in management disclosures of earnings forecasts and historic earnings data in Australian prospectuses. Management forecasts and naïve forecasts derived from managements’ normalised historic data are analysed. A key focus is upon the possible association between such forecast bias and differential audit services performed upon the data. Audit firm size and level of engagement are modelled against bias. The full sample revealed no overestimation bias for any of the forecast models, but underestimation was observed for elements of the management and random walk naïve forecasts. Cross-sectionally, a significant association was observed between forecast bias and audit firm size across all three forecast models. Specifically, the audit firm size variable (Non Big-5/Big-5) was inversely associated with the extent to which forecasted and normalised historic earnings data were upwardly biased. On the other hand, the level of engagement was not a significant discriminator for forecast bias. These outcomes are contrasted against others reported elsewhere in the literature and suggest a risk in generalising across contexts. The findings imply a level of ‘disclosure management’ regarding company IPO forecasts and normalised historic accounting data, with forecast overestimation and error size more extreme when the monitoring expertise and/or reputation of auditors is lower (JEL D80, G14, M41, N27).     

经济评价中风险分析方法研究

辨析了投资项目经济评价中的风险分析方法，在此基础上全面介绍了五种常用的风险评价方法。最后，应用蒙特卡洛模拟法进行了实例风险分析与评价，从而使这一方法更具可操作性。     

税收代位权初探

我国新《税收征管法》是在《合同法》的基础上，规定了税收代位权制度。法律规定税收代位权的目的是为了保障税务机关的税款不致流失、确保国家税收收入。鉴于新《税收征管法》中未规定税收代位权的具体法律制度，故笔拟对税收代位权的行使条件、方式、限制及效力进行探讨，以利完善该法律制度。     

质量流量计在交接计量使用中应注意的几个问题

对液体质量流量计测量值含义进行了论证，并结合我国油品计量的实际，提出了使用过程中对测量值的修正方法，与此同时，还提出其他技术要求。     

投资者教育发挥作用了吗?——来自公募基金个人投资者调查数据的证据

投资者教育是保障资本市场平稳运行、良性发展的重要举措,也是我国资本市场重要的基础性制度建设。本文利用20000多份全国公募基金个人投资者调查数据,分析了投资者教育对基金投资收益的影响,并基于行为金融学框架探究了其背后的作用机制。以往文献研究表明,金融知识水平对投资收益会产生显著影响,本文研究发现,获取金融知识的渠道也会影响投资收益。相对于自己学习金融知识、相关工作经验累积金融知识、向亲戚朋友学习金融知识,投资者教育(如参加金融机构的投资教育活动、接受金融经济类课程或培训)更有助于投资者缓解趋势追逐、频繁交易、处置效应等交易行为偏差,从而获得更高的投资收益。进一步分析表明,投资者教育通过提高“理性程度”来提升基金投资盈利概率、投资总收益率和年均收益率的中介效应分别为19.41%、17.09%和12.75%。此外,不同群体参与投资者教育的积极性和受教育效果存在显著差异,投资者教育要更多采取“分类教育”的形式。本文研究对进一步加强投资者教育、更好地推动资本市场发展具有一定的参考意义。     

属性论在供应链牛鞭效应防范中的应用

提高预测的准确性是缓解供应链牛鞭效应的关键。运用属性论方法,就制造商-零售商-客户三级供应链,建立了零售商的下游产品订购量的基本预测模型,同时提出两个拓展模型来预测零售商向上游的订货点,以及制造商的生产量。在三个模型信息整合的基础上提高了预测的准确性,由此可防范牛鞭效应的发生。     

基于DEA的人力资本系统评价方法

本文基于数据包络分析(DEA)方法、结合定量和定性分析,给出了一种较为有效的人力资本评价方法。在建立人力资本评价模型的基础上,本文以一个案例研究了企业间人力资本使用的相对有效性。     

Willingness to Pay for Environmental Improvements in a Large City Evidence from The Spike Model and From a Non-Parametric Approach

In this paper, the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) is applied in order toestimate the social benefits of a set of environmental and urbanimprovements planned for the waterfront of the City of Valencia (Spain) asa consequence of the expansion and restructuring of its trading port. Asthe data show a high rate of zero responses, we applied the Spike model,one of the most recent models in CVM literature, since traditional models(Logit and Probit) are not suitable, given the characteristics of our data.The non-parametric approach is also applied in order to test the validity ofthe Spike model. The results show certain similarities between the Spikemodel and the non-parametric approach.     

姜是老的辣吗?——中国民营企业竞争力和企业经验的半参数分析

本文利用半参数模型对企业竞争力和企业经验之间的关系进行了实证研究。首先采用16个不同的企业竞争力评价指标分别考察了企业规模、社会效益、经营能力、经营安全、盈利能力、技术实力、人力资本价值、出口创汇能力、发展潜力和企业经验之间的关系,发现流动资产周转率、劳动生产率和发展潜力随着企业经验的积累基本呈下降趋势,而其盈利能力和所提供的就业人数基本维持稳定,其余指标和企业经验之间大致呈倒U型关系。我们还采用主成份分析法综合这16个指标,构造了企业竞争力综合指标,并发现它和企业经验之间的关系并不是简单的"倒U型",而是"M型"。