Regulating the Anticommons: Insights from Public‐Expenditure Theory

This article offers a new interpretation of the traditional Cournot complements problem, or anticommons, by using the theory of public goods to gain a perspective on the problem. Specifically, I examine the pricing strategies and regulation of multiple monopolies that produce products which consumers view as perfect complements. I show that collusion by the firms increases total social welfare and that the collusion problem can be reinterpreted as a problem of provision of public goods from the point of view of the firms. I take this insight further and derive the familiar concepts of the Samuelson marginal condition and the ratio equilibrium for the firms. I compare these outcomes to the first best solution and then apply incentive‐compatible mechanisms to strategically implement the Pareto superior ratio‐equilibrium outcome and the optimal marginal‐cost pricing outcome. Finally, I show how this methodology can be applied to the more familiar Cournot model of oligopoly.     

Towards a Measure of Core Inflation using Singular Spectrum Analysis

This paper constructs a number of possible core measures of inflation using singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Annual changes in monthly inflation are decomposed into its trend, oscillatory and noise components in order to develop an understanding of the trend and cyclicality in South African headline inflation. Three cyclical components with differing amplitude and frequency are identified. The trend and cyclical components of inflation are found to be a good approximation of core inflation, the inertial part of inflation. These core measures are compared with other candidate core measures based on the properties of a good core inflation measure. Generally, the SSA measures outperform commonly used measures of core inflation based on both in‐ and out‐of‐sample performance.     

RECURRENT BUBBLES*

We study rational bubbles in a standard linear asset price model. We first consider a class of bubble processes driven by multiplicative i.i.d. shocks. We show that a bubble process in this class either diverges to infinity with probability one, converges to zero with probability one, or keeps fluctuating forever with probability one, depending on investors' “confidence” in expected bubble growth. We call a bubble process having the last property “recurrent.” We develop sufficient conditions for a bubble process to be recurrent when it is driven by non‐i.i.d. shocks, when the risk‐free interest rate is not constant, and when the process is driven by non‐i.i.d. shocks and the risk‐free interest rate is not constant. In the last case we demonstrate via simulation that there can be a prolonged period in which both the bubble and the interest rate stay close to zero.     

Trust Promoting Seals in Electronic Markets

Abstract

In order to promote web sales, companies conducting electronic commerce are constantly seeking viable and efficient ways to increase web traffic. One approach is to build consumers' trust, and ultimately to increase web sales. Many business-to-consumer online merchants follow this approach and display trust-promoting seals on their websites. However, whether these seals really fulfill the tasks they have promised has remained unexplored. This study empirically examines the influence of trust-promoting seals on consumers' online purchasing decisions. The results show that the trust-promoting seals are generally effective in promoting web sales, and some seals enhance promotion better than others.     

行业品牌向消费者品牌延伸的架构选择

目前我国IT、通讯、电子商务、照明、墙纸、食品等众多行业中的部分企业，在成功奠定行业品牌基础之后，力图带着良好的行业品牌形象走向消费者，实现从行业品牌向消费者品牌的顺利延伸。在从行业品牌（B2B）向消费者品牌（B2C）延伸过程中，企业需要认清B2B品牌建设与B2C品牌建设的区别，选择和确定品牌延伸的架构模式，分析和评估其可能的利益与风险。     

Local persistence and the PPP hypothesis

This paper examines the statistical properties of the bilateral real exchange rates of the U.S. vs. France, Germany, and the U.K. during the Post-Bretton-Woods period, and draws implications on the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis. Contrary to traditional studies that consider only unit root and stationary processes to describe the real exchange rate behavior, this paper considers an in-between process, the locally persistent process. The empirical results demonstrate the following two findings: (1) Locally persistent processes describe the real exchange rate movements better than unit root and stationary processes, which implies that PPP reversion occurs and PPP holds in the long-run. (2) The confidence intervals for half-life deviations from PPP under local persistence tend to be narrower than those obtained by assuming the ADF and the local-to-unity models.     

Derivative pricing using multivariate affine generalized hyperbolic distributions

In this paper we use multivariate affine generalized hyperbolic (MAGH) distributions, introduced by Schmidt et al. (2006), to show how to price multidimensional derivatives when the underlying asset follows a MAGH distribution. We also illustrate the approach using market data from the BOVESPA (São Paulo Stock Exchange) and the exchange rate of the Brazilian Real vs. US Dollar to price some multidimensional derivatives.     

A STATE‐LEVEL ANALYSIS OF BUSINESS CYCLE ASYMMETRY

This paper provides a comprehensive examination of asymmetry in US state‐level business cycles. We consider two different types of asymmetry in the adjustment process of a stationary time series: deepness and steepness. The data used in the study are a comparable set of state‐level coincident indexes (SCIs) developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Specifically, results from using the momentum‐threshold autoregressive model provide evidence of asymmetry in the growth rate of 23 SCIs as well as the equivalent national coincident index.     

C＋＋虚函数实现多态之案例驱动教学方法探讨

多态性是面向对象程序设计方法学的重要特征之一,其中,运行时多态的语法规则对初学者难以掌握。利用反汇编手段,设计虚函数实现运行时多态的教学驱动案例,对加深学生理解虚函数实现运行时多态的基本原理和运行机制,具有良好的效果。     

Inter-industry Technology Spillover Effects in China： Evidence from 35 Industrial Sectors

The present paper calculates 35 industrial sectors’ similarity matrices for the period of 1997-2008 using China’s input-output tables for 1997,2002 and 2007,and uses these to measure inter-industry technology spillover to analyze the spillover effects on industrial sectors’ labor productivity.The empirical analysis shows that inter-industry technology spillover has a significant positive effect on the labor productivity of each industry.The elasticity of productivity effects of inter-industry technology spillover is not only larger than that of direct R&D input,but also increases over time.We group the industries into four major categories and find that the inter-industry technology spillover effect within the categories is,on average,greater than that between the four categories,indicating that technology spillover occurs more easily between similar industries.This research shows that the interindustry technology spillover effect in China has begun to increase,and the government should take advantage of this effect.