EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE ON ENGLISH AUCTIONS: ORAL OUTCRY VERSUS CLOCK

This paper tests experimentally, in a common value setting, the equivalence between the Japanese English auction (or clock auction) and an oral outcry auction where bidders are allowed to call their own bids. We find that (i) bidding behaviour is different in each type of auction, but also that (ii) this difference in bidding behaviour does not affect significantly the auction prices. This lends some support to the equivalence between these two types of auction. The winner's curse is present: overbidding led to higher than expected prices (under Nash bidding strategies) in both types of auction. Although interesting and encouraging, the results clearly indicate that further research is necessary, particularly with a modified experimental design.     

基于C#.NET的中小零售企业销售系统设计

系统采用C#语言,基于微软公司的.NET平台,开发适用于中小型商业零售批发企业的销售系统。整个系统以商品为主线,围绕着商品进行进销存的集中管理,实现企业基本的销售,统计,核算的功能。     

硝酸异丙酯对火工品密封性能影响研究

以电雷管为试验对象,对不同浓度的C3H7NO3气体对电雷管密封性能的影响进行了试验研究。建立了C3H7NO3-密封胶扩散模型,对C3H7NO3气体在密封胶中的扩散进行了分析,结果表明:密封胶的腐蚀速度与C3H7NO3气体的浓度成正比。     

The effect of IMF lending on the probability of sovereign debt crises

This paper explores empirically how the adoption of IMF programs affects sovereign risk over the medium term. We find that IMF programs significantly increase the probability of subsequent sovereign defaults by approximately 1.5–2 percentage points. These results cannot be attributed to endogeneity bias as they are supported by specifications that explain sovereign defaults and program participation simultaneously. Furthermore, IMF programs turn out to be especially detrimental to fiscal solvency when the Fund distributes its resources to countries whose economic fundamentals are already weak. Our evidence is therefore consistent with the hypothesis that debtor moral hazard is most likely to occur in these circumstances. Other explanations that point to the effects of debt dilution and the possibility of IMF triggered debt runs, however, are also possible.     

General equilibrium with heterogeneous participants and discrete consumption times

The paper investigates the term structure of interest rates imposed by equilibrium in a production economy consisting of participants with heterogeneous preferences. Consumption is restricted to an arbitrary number of discrete times. The paper contains an exact solution to market equilibrium and provides an explicit constructive algorithm for determining the state price density process. The convergence of the algorithm is proven. Interest rates and their behavior are given as a function of economic variables.     

The Risk Microstructure of Corporate Bonds: A Case Study from the German Corporate Bond Market

This article presents joint econometric analysis of interest rate risk, issuer‐specific risk (credit risk) and bond‐specific risk (liquidity risk) in a reduced‐form framework. We estimate issuer‐specific and bond‐specific risk from corporate bond data in the German market. We find that bond‐specific risk plays a crucial role in the pricing of corporate bonds. We observe substantial differences between different bonds with respect to the relative influence of issuer‐specific vs. bond‐specific spread on the level and the volatility of the total spread. Issuer‐specific risk exhibits strong autocorrelation and a strong impact of weekday effects, the level of the risk‐free term structure and the debt to value ratio. Moreover, we can observe some impact of the stock market volatility, the respective stock's return and the distance to default. For the bond‐specific risk we find strong autocorrelation, some impact of the stock market index, the stock market volatility, weekday effects and monthly effects as well as a very weak impact of the risk‐free term structure and the specific stock's return. Altogether, the determinants of the spread components vary strongly between different bonds/issuers.     

Bankruptcy dynamics in Japan

This paper attempts to enhance our understanding of macro aspects of bankruptcies in Japan. For this purpose, we estimate a vector autoregression comprised of three macroeconomic variables, two financial variables from the corporate sector and the bankruptcy rate, and construct its impulse responses. The estimation results generally show expected and consistent relationships between economic shocks and aggregate bankruptcies: in particular, a positive shock in the call rate clearly raises the bankruptcy rate. We also estimate industry-level models for manufacturing, construction, and wholesale and retail trade, the results of which show fundamental similarities, but differences as well, in the details by industry. We try to apply a standard framework for analysis aimed at establishing a clear benchmark for the study.     

基于单片机远程I2C温度控制系统

采用P89LPC922单片机为主控MCU，使用模拟I^2C方式，利用远程控制芯片P82896实现了基于I^2C的远程I／O扩展，同时该系统采用LM75A采集终端温度并在前端显示，前端通过控制PCA9554的I／O口来实现对终端温度的控制。温度过高则控制风扇转动来降温，温度过低则控制加热设备加热。     

Moving average stochastic volatility models with application to inflation forecast

We introduce a new class of models that has both stochastic volatility and moving average errors, where the conditional mean has a state space representation. Having a moving average component, however, means that the errors in the measurement equation are no longer serially independent, and estimation becomes more difficult. We develop a posterior simulator that builds upon recent advances in precision-based algorithms for estimating these new models. In an empirical application involving US inflation we find that these moving average stochastic volatility models provide better in-sample fitness and out-of-sample forecast performance than the standard variants with only stochastic volatility.     

基于C2C电子商务信用评价体系的探讨

C2C电子商务在中国的电子商务体系中占有很重要的地位,但是信用问题越来越为人们所关注,信用的评价也就成了电子商务网站的一项很重要的工作。结合实例对几个代表网站的信用评价体系进行分析,找出其优缺点。提出改进的意见,对不足之处加以完善,利用初始静态信用评价、加权平均、构建信用度函数图等方法,来更加科学合理的计算信用度,使之呈现的更加直观。