Forecasting macroeconomic variables in emerging economies

Forecasting macroeconomic variables in rapidly changing emerging economies presents a number of challenges. In addition to structural changes, the time-series data are usually available only for a short number of periods, and predictors are available in different lengths and frequencies. Dynamic model averaging (DMA), by allowing the forecasting model to change dynamically over time, permits the use of predictors with different lengths and frequencies for the purpose of forecasting in a rapidly changing economy. This study uses DMA to forecast inflation and growth in Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Ghana. We compare its forecasting performance with a wide range of other time-series methods. We find that the size and composition of the optimal predictor set changed, indicating changes in the economic relationships over time. We also find that DMA frequently produces more accurate forecasts than other forecasting methods for both inflation and economic growth in the countries studied.     

Performance assessment of ensemble learning systems in financial data classification

Financial data classification plays an important role in investment and banking industry with the purpose to control default risk, improve cash and select the best customers. Ensemble learning and classification systems are becoming gradually more applied to classify financial data where outputs from different classification systems are combined. The objective of this research is to assess the relative performance of existing state‐of‐the‐art ensemble learning and classification systems with applications to corporate bankruptcy prediction and credit scoring. The considered ensemble systems include AdaBoost, LogitBoost, RUSBoost, subspace, and bagging ensemble system. The experimental results from three datasets: one is composed of quantitative attributes, one encompasses qualitative data, and another one combines both quantitative and qualitative attributes. By using ten‐fold cross‐validation method, the experimental results show that AdaBoost is effective in terms of low classification error, limited complexity, and short time processing of the data. In addition, the experimental results show that ensemble classification systems outperform existing models that were recently validated on the same databases. Therefore, ensemble classification system can be employed to increase the reliability and consistency of financial data classification task.     

关于对高职学生现用教材使用情况问卷调查的分析报告

本文分别从问卷调查的基本情况论述了高职学生现用教材使用情况问卷调查的分析报告。     

探究数字化时代对师范生信息素养的要求

本文从数字化时代发展的角度出发,指出数字化学习不仅是数字时代学习的重要方式,更是课程整合的核心,同时提高教师的信息素养是数字化学习的关键。随着信息社会的发展和中小学信息技术课的开展,对师范生的信息素养提出了更高的要求。目前师范生就业形式,信息素养状况怎样,存在哪些问题,怎样去解决这些问题提高自身的竞争力?这都是我们师范院校的学生所思考的问题。针对上述问题,本文提出了自己的观点和看法。     

终身学习视角下公共图书馆的转型与发展思考

公共图书馆作为公共文化服务体系的重要组成部分,在构建学习型社会的大背景下,为促进终身学习的理念,借鉴国外图书馆的前沿探索,提升人文素质和知识内涵,实现公共图书馆在新的历史形势下自身的转型与发展。     

Redefining rural prosperity through social learning in the cooperative sector: 25 years of experience from organic agriculture in Spain

In the political system and in public perception, the well-functioning of economy is frequently equalled to the output of the national economic system. However, during the last decades, this narrow conception of economic prosperity started to erode. This paper is based on a rural prosperity conceptual framework that takes into account the systemic nature and dynamics of interactions and impacts within rural systems through the analysis of an organic agriculture cooperative called Camposeven in the south east of Spain. The focus is on rural prosperity, differences in understanding, related parameters and strategies used by the cooperativés farming partners to success without following the traditional conventions of economic growth and farm-efficiency. Experience lessons in this paper demonstrate that the “technical-economic” approach of rural prosperity is not sufficient and results emphasize the important role of individuals’ behaviour as well as the contexts in which they are involved. The findings point to the increasing relevance of expanding both the theory and practice of rural prosperity approaches in sustainable rural development. This is important in order to enrich the connections between rural prosperity and other concepts such as social capital, innovation, social learning and resilience.     

Real exchange rates: are they dominated by fundamental factors?

Using Bayesian model averaging, we determine which fundamental pair-wise differences suggested by the literature on optimum currency areas give the best explanation of medium-term variability of bilateral real exchange rates. The intercept in the best specification is statistically insignificant, implying that for a hypothetical pair of economies for which the differences were zero, the bilateral real exchange rate would not move. Thus, the ‘non-fundamental’ element of the medium-term real exchange rate variability is, in our sample at least, negligible on average. In other words, floating exchange rate does not in itself imply, on average, more real exchange rate variability in the medium term than an exchange rate peg.     

Enhancing the study abroad experience: A longitudinal analysis of hospitality-oriented,study abroad program evaluations

Research suggests numerous benefits associated with studying abroad. Given the increasingly global nature of the world, it would seem that there is a significant need for international exposure; however, only 1.4% of U.S. students have studied abroad. This study examined program evaluations from 11 short-term undergraduate study abroad programs encompassing a span of 9 years. A total of 185 participants completed the survey using evaluations designed for program improvement, which were collected at the conclusion of each experience. Data were examined using a mixed-methods approach with the goal of identifying programmatic characteristics that contributed to increased student satisfaction. Results indicated that students' preferences were prioritized in terms of logistics, culture, and pleasure. In addition, the engagement and source of experience significantly influenced students' satisfaction with their study abroad experience, implying that students prefer programs with active components and local guides. Findings were examined in light of Mezirow's Transformative Learning Theory.     

基于工作过程的课程开发与实践--以高职《数据库技术与应用》课程为例

基于工作过程导向的课程开发是当前高等职业教育改革的方向，文章结合实际教学经验总结了基于工作过程导向的高职《数据库技术与应用》课程开发与实践的方案。     

技术学习成本的分担方式与企业创新绩效关系的实证研究

本文选取2009～2013年中国医药行业上市公司作为研究样本，分别对技术学习的企业内部投入成本与社会外部投入成本对企业创新绩效的影响进行了实证分析，同时探讨了技术学习的两种承担方式之间的关系。研究结果表明，技术学习过程中的企业投入与社会投入均对企业创新绩效产生显著正向影响，技术学习的投入越大，企业创新绩效越好。但政府以税收优惠与财政补贴等政策方式分担企业技术学习成本的效果并不显著。