基于博弈论视角的新型农村合作医疗中供给诱导需求和供需合谋问题探析

利用贝叶斯博弈模型分析在新型农村合作医疗制度中医疗机构和农民之间的博弈,分析引发医疗服务供给诱导需求的原因,以及由于道德风险引发的医疗机构和农民之间的合谋,并且提出建立第三方购买机制等若干建议,以控制医疗费用不合理地快速增长.     

Leaving EMU: a real options perspective

The real option implicit in a country's decision of whether to leave an existing monetary union when there is uncertainty over the future benefits of this move is examined. The theoretical model used is calibrated for the current Euro-12 area by proxying policymakers’ inflation preferences with unemployment rates and debt-to-GDP ratios. A robust group of countries is observed that would choose to remain within EMU consisting of Belgium, Finland, Greece and Italy; France and Spain loosely also belong to this core. Only Luxembourg would robustly want to leave EMU; Ireland and The Netherlands, however, complement that core closely.     

Bayesian forecasting of electoral outcomes with new parties’ competition

We propose a new methodology for predicting electoral results that combines a fundamental model and national polls within an evidence synthesis framework. Although novel, the methodology builds upon basic statistical structures, largely modern analysis of variance type models, and it is carried out in open-source software. The methodology is motivated by the specific challenges of forecasting elections with the participation of new political parties, which is becoming increasingly common in the post-2008 European panorama. Our methodology is also particularly useful for the allocation of parliamentary seats, since the vast majority of available opinion polls predict at national level whereas seats are allocated at local level. We illustrate the advantages of our approach relative to recent competing approaches using the 2015 Spanish Congressional Election. In general, the predictions of our model outperform the alternative specifications, including hybrid models that combine fundamental and polls models. Our forecasts are, in relative terms, particularly accurate in predicting the seats obtained by each political party.