外汇储备对我国物价水平的影响——基于协整检验与误差修正模型的分析

协整和格兰杰因果检验结果表明,我国外汇储备与物价水平存在协整关系,且外汇储备是物价水平的格兰杰原因,表明外汇储备增加将对通货膨胀形成压力。但从误差修正模型的检验结果看,我国外汇储备对物价水平的影响在短期内较为有限,其主要原因是我国央行短期内进行大量的外汇冲销操作。因此,我国需要采取有效的措施来缓解通胀压力,如加大央行公开市场业务操作、改革外汇管理体制、适当放宽汇率浮动幅度以及合理使用我国现有外汇储备等。     

Using Forecasting Criteria to Identify Value Relevance in the Relationship Between Accounting Numbers and Market Value

We explain and demonstrate a disciplined and systematic approach to repeatable modelling using forecast criteria, in addition to the usual statistical estimation criteria, to identify value relevance in regressions of the market‐accounting relation. The method was used in Cooke et al. ( 2009 ). It is illustrated here in the case of a single firm over a 59‐year period. Market and accounting data for the U.S. firm Abbott Laboratories Inc. from 1955 are modelled using a testing‐down, error correction approach. Hold‐out samples of 10 to 15 years are used to assess forecasting performance relative to a random walk. Emphasis is placed upon the use of simple, directly observable and theory‐independent model variables that can be replicated with other sample data. In this case, logarithmic transformations of all variables have to be computed in order to achieve correct statistical specification, implying a multiplicative relationship in the raw data. The strongest cointegrating accounting variable with forecasting ability for Abbott's market value is earnings. The model parameters exhibit long‐run stability and the accounting regressor marginally improves forecasts of market value compared to a random walk, demonstrating ‘value relevance’.     

江苏自主创新能力与经济增长关系的实证研究

在分析江苏自主创新现状的基础上,运用协整检验、误差修正模型和Granger因果检验等计量方法,对江苏自主创新能力与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明:二者之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,自主创新能力是江苏经济增长的Granger原因。江苏应采取相关对策,促进自主创新能力的提升。     

开放经济条件下我国货币需求研究

文章引入股票流通市值、汇率等变量对开放经济条件下我国货币需求函数进行全面研究。协整和误差修正模型结果表明：汇率是除社会消费品零售总额外影响我国长短期货币需求稳定的最重要的变量,并且对我国货币需求的影响很大;股票市场发展对我国长期和短期货币需求的影响很小。这一发现可为我国当前反通货膨胀的货币政策的制订提供重要的参考。为控制货币供应量,我们应该重点关注汇率波动。     

关于大量程超声波料位计的算法修正讨论

随着现代科学技术的不断提升,煤矿、铁矿、造纸、稀土等行业的自动化水平取得飞速发展,能否稳定、准确、智能地测量料位决定着这些行业是否能够向现代化、智能化发展。测量料位的方法有很多,其中超声波料位计采用非接触方式,能够有效避免光线、粉尘、烟雾和电磁干扰的影响。研究和设计精度高、稳定性好、性价比高的超声波料位计是充满挑战性和具有现实意义的课题。考虑到超声波的传播速度受温度的影响较大,推导出带有温度补偿的速度修正计算公式,并应用在软件算法中;为了进一步提高测量精度,本文还详细分析了超声波传播的实际路径并给出了计算公式。     

一种嵌入式软件无线电频谱监测系统

为了降低研发成本，提高频谱系统的灵活性和缩短研制周期，提出了一种基于软件无线电的嵌入式频谱监测系统。首先研究了系统硬件平台组成和特点，在此基础上设计了一种灵活的软件定义系统架构；然后考虑到硬件平台自身性能的限制，重点研究了频率偏移校正、频谱扫描策略等关键技术，分别提出了基于GSM信号和温度传感器的频偏校正方法和基于相关性的扫频策略；最后通过具体实验，对系统性能进行验证与评估，结果表明所提出的频偏校正方法能够将绝对平均频偏控制在1.749×10-6以内，所设计的基于相关性的扫频策略对时变信号的频谱监测效果最好。     

相关信噪比对天线组阵相位估计性能的影响

传统天线组阵理论为了简化分析，均假设反正切相位鉴别器是一种最大似然估计器，其估计方差能够达到克拉美-罗下界。然而当相关信噪比在中等值以下时，这一假设条件不再适用。为此，分析了相关信噪比对相位估计性能的影响。针对传统天线组阵合成性能分析方法在描述低相关信噪比条件下相位估计性能方面存在的问题，通过引入修正因子，得到了相位估计方差的理论公式，实现了对低相关信噪比条件下相位估计性能的准确描述。     

冻结造孔防斜保直实践与应用

冻结造孔施工过程中,控制井斜靶域半径问题是冻结造孔的关键点。以陕西麟北煤业开发有限责任公司园子沟煤矿冻结造孔施工为例,本文着重分析冻结造孔施工中靶域半径控制及钻孔防斜保直、测斜、定向技术实践应用。     

Automatic leading indicators versus macroeconometric structural models: A comparison of inflation and GDP growth forecasting

This paper compares the forecast performance of automatic leading indicators (ALIs) and macroeconometric structural models (MESMs) commonly used by non-academic macroeconomists. Inflation and GDP growth form the forecast objects for comparison, using data from China, Indonesia and the Philippines. ALIs are found to outperform MESMs for one-period-ahead forecasts, but this superiority disappears as the forecast horizon increases. It is also found that ALIs involve greater uncertainty in choosing indicators, mixing data frequencies and utilizing unrestricted VARs. Two ways of reducing the uncertainty are explored: (i) give theory priority in choosing indicators, and include theory-based disequilibrium shocks in the indicator sets; and (ii) reduce the VARs by means of the general-to-specific modeling procedure.