云南省能源消费与经济增长动态关系——基于向量误差修正模型的实证研究

基于云南1980—2019年时间序列数据,在能源、资本和劳动三要素C-D生产函数框架下,利用Johansen协整检验、向量误差修正模型、Granger因果检验等定量分析工具,对能源消费与经济增长的短期和长期关系进行实证检验。结果表明:二者存在相互促进的长期均衡关系,而短期不存在因果关系,说明云南经济结构优化向好,能源依赖度低;此外存在纠偏机制,误差修正项对能源消费的调整速度显著快于对实际GDP的调整速度,说明云南能源产业具有良好的自我调节功能。最后指出云南能源产业今后的发展重点是加快建立系统整合的能源-经济决策架构,同时政府应着力营造稳定的宏观经济环境。     

排污收费政策的成效分析——基于浙江省的实证分析

排污收费是我国政府为环保治污所采取的一项主要环境政策。本文依据浙江省1994-2010年相关环境数据,对排污收费在降低能耗、抑制工业废水及废气排放等方面的政策效应进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,浙江省排污收费与单位GDP能耗、单位GDP废水排放量之间存在长期负相关性,与单位GDP废气排放量不存在长期均衡关系。为使排污收费政策充分发挥作用,指出应着重对其征收标准、范围、及监管等方面进行改进和完善。     

Dynamic Relationships between Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: Empirical Evidence from Korea

This paper examines the short‐run and long‐run dynamic relationships between exchange rates and foreign direct investment (FDI) in Korea. Monthly data retrieved from the Bank of Korea from January 1999 to March 2012 are examined. A cointegration test, a vector error correction model, the Wald test and impulse responses techniques are applied to analyze the data. The present study finds that, first, long‐run causation between exchange rates and FDI flows exists, which implies that a change in exchange rates negatively affects FDI flows in the long run. Second, short‐run causation between exchange rates and FDI flows exists, which confirms that there is reciprocal feedback between the two variables. Finally, the study finds evidence of a structural break from the global financial crisis of 2007–2009 shock to FDI flows in Korea. An external shock affects changes in the endogenous variables and, thus, causes instability in the cointegrating vector in the system.     

农村固定资产投资对农民收入的影响研究

农村基础性、生产性固定资产投资对农民经营性、工资性、财产性收入的变动具有积极的正面效应。文章采用1981—2011年的数据检验农村固定资产投资对农民收入的影响,结果认为农村固定资产投资与农民收入之间存在均衡关系,农村固定资产投资可以持久显著地增加农村居民人均纯收入,缩小城乡发展差距。     

EXPLAINING THE GROWTH OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN SOUTH AFRICA

What determines government spending in South Africa? The paper estimates the determinants of real per capita government spending in the Republic of South Africa using annual data for the period 1960‐2007, a tumultuous period during which South Africa experienced a variety of internally imposed changes (e.g. the abolition of apartheid, changes in political institutions) and externally generated shocks (e.g. war, oil shocks). Using multivariate cointegration techniques, we find that per capita government spending, per capita income, the tax share and the wage rate are cointegrated, a result that supports the notion that government spending is associated not only with per capita income and the true cost of government service provision as given by the wage rate but also with the fiscal illusion caused by budget deficits. We also find evidence that per capita government spending was positively affected by external shocks. These external shocks seem to play a significant role in explaining the dynamics of government spending growth.     

试证新疆金融发展与经济增长的关系

新疆金融行业的目前发展状况很大程度上也牵制了新疆的发展,分析新疆区域金融发展与经济增长问题具有十分重要的理论与现实意义。本文运用数量经济方法,在单整和协整检验的基础上,利用误差修正模型(ECM)及Granger因果检验对新疆地区金融发展与经济增长的内在联系进行实证分析,认为新疆的金融发展与经济增长不仅存在正向促进关系,而且存在Granger意义上的因果关系。在此基础上本文结合新疆实际,对新疆金融业发展提出了相应的政策建议。     

广东经济增长协整分析

本文通过对广东省1978～2007年的GDP、全社会固定资产投资和税收三个时间序列进行数量分析,发现它们之间存在协整关系,基于这个协整关系建立误差修正模型(ECM),在对模型进行分析后,对广东的经济发展提出一些建议。     

Knowledge spill-over from new to old industries: The case of German synthetic dyes and textiles (1878-1913)

We construct a data set of long-lived German patents of patent classes dyes (22) and dyeing (8) to measure the accumulation path of technological knowledge with respect to dyeing textiles. Using these data we show with a vector error correction model that in the German Empire inter-industry knowledge spill-over between the new chemical industry and the old textile industry created an upward circle of “endogenous growth.” The increasing demand for synthetic dyes of the prospering textile firms initiated further research and development projects of the chemical firms that led to new patents and via customer consulting and customer training to additional economic benefits of the textile industry.     

How firm communication affects the impact of layoff announcements on brand strength over time

Firms usually undertake layoffs to improve financial performance. However, layoffs often have negative effects on various stakeholders, including consumers. In this paper, we examine the magnitude and duration of the potential negative effect of layoff announcements on brand strength. We also examine how a firm's communication accompanying a layoff can potentially counteract the observed negative effect of layoff announcements on brand strength. We compare how advertising communication intensity, social media communication (i.e., brand-initiated tweets), public relation (PR) communication, and communication of CSR initiatives moderate the main effect of layoff announcements on brand strength. Using an error correction model and drawing on 366 announcements of layoff events in Germany, this study identifies the magnitude and duration of the main effect. An examination of five years of weekly consumer brand perception data across multiple industries and domestic and foreign firms shows that advertising communication intensity and social media communication amplify the negative impact of layoff announcements on brand strength. Conversely, PR communication and communication of CSR initiatives help mitigate the negative effect. These findings provide guidance on the best way for firms to design firm communication in the context of layoff announcements.     

基于村域综合修正的宅基地价值测算及空间分布 特征分析 ——以天津市静海区17余万宗宅基地为例

研究目的：基于精细化尺度视角测度静海区17余万宗宅基地综合价值，为科学放活宅基地使用权、推进宅基地制度改革提供参考。研究方法：以天津市静海区为例，构建宅基地价值总体测算模型，并运用空间自相关、冷热点分析方法分析其空间分布。研究结果：（1）静海区宅基地价值整体以低值区和中值区为主，低值区占比50%，中值区占比44%，高值区占比6%;(2)静海区各乡镇区位修正系数为0.450 7～1.132 8，自然修正系数为0.000 3～1.024 6，社会经济修正系数为0.244 8～1.132 8，宅基地修正系数为0.158 7～1.132 8，综合修正系数为0.494 5～1.912 4;(3)静海区宅基地综合价值整体以低值区和中值区为主，高值区主要分布在唐官屯镇，中值区主要分布在静海区西南部，低值区分散分布；（4）静海区宅基地综合价值在空间关系上表现为正相关性和高度集聚性，高—高集聚地区主要分布在唐官屯镇和台头镇，低—低集聚地区分散分布于杨成庄乡、蔡公庄镇和双塘镇等地。研究结论：宅基地价值逐级修正测算模型对测算大量宅基地价值数据具有可行性，能够为明晰宅基地价值、宏观掌握宅基地利用状态提供重要参...