For which countries did PPP hold? A multiple testing approach

We employ a multiple testing technique to identify the countries for which purchasing power parity (PPP) held over the last century. The approach controls the multiplicity problem inherent in simultaneously testing for PPP on several time series, thereby avoiding spurious rejections. It has higher power than traditional multiple testing techniques by exploiting the dependence structure between the countries with a bootstrap approach. Our results show that, plausibly, thus controlling for multiplicity leads to a number of rejections of the null that is intermediate between that of traditional multiple testing techniques and that which results if one tests the null on each single time series at some level α. Research supported by Ruhr Graduate School in Economics and DFG under Sonderforschungsbereich 475.     

区块链技术背景下对审计行业的影响研究

区块链技术自2009年第一个创世区块诞生以来,以其作为核心技术的比特币从16年开始风靡全球,区块链也随之被大众逐渐了解,它凭借其独有的非对称加密、分布共识、点对点通信等技术,在金融领域、物联网、数字版权领域等方面都有其广泛应用前景.同样的,区块链技术也能应用于会计、审计方面,意味着审计流程的大幅度简化、审计信息的真实保...     

Can We Bootstrap DEA Scores?

This paper discusses the feasibility of bootstrapping DEA scores in the context of the earlier paper by Ferrier and Hirschberg (1997). A simple experiment is devised to demonstrate that in the one-input, one-output case the bootstrap of the non-modified DEA scores is not a failure of the bootstrap.     

Is it efficient to analyse efficiency rankings?

When production functions are estimated as frontier functions, the deviations from the frontier can be interpreted as individual inefficiency estimates. Unfortunately, it has recently been shown that efficiency differences across individuals are very often statistically insignificant. In this paper, we will analyse the consequences of the consideration of confidence statements for the reliability of efficiency rankings. The stochastic frontier and confidence intervals derived by Horrace and Schmidt are compared to the COLS approach and bootstrap confidence intervals. The membership function is proposed as a simple Monte-Carlo approximation for the probability for an individual to be the most efficient in the sample. First version received: May 1998/final version accepted: July 1999     

广西铁路多式联运发展对策研究

广西作为我国唯一与东盟国家陆海相邻的省区,发展铁路多式联运具有广阔前景和独特优势。基于联运发展环境和班列开行组织2个方面,深入阐述广西铁路多式联运发展现状,分析得出目前存在的联运基础设施亟待完善、各运输方式间协同水平较低、各运输方式分工不够合理、市场综合竞争力有待提高4个方面问题。据此,提出广西铁路多式联运发展对策,即:完善联运设备设施、加强各种交通方式融合、推进运输结构调整、优化联运产品供给、加强技术装备应用,以进一步完善广西铁路多式联运体系,提升社会物流服务整体水平。     

中国通货膨胀与通货膨胀不确定性的非线性关系

本文利用1983年1月~2007年1月CPI月度数据,应用Hamilton提出的能同时发现数据线性和非线性关系的随机场回归模型,对中国通货膨胀与通货膨胀不确定性的非线性关系进行实证研究。实证的结论支持了Friedman-Ball假设和Cukierman-Meltzer假设。前者呈现U型的非线性关系,这意味高的通货膨胀和通货紧缩都将导致高的不确定性,这一发现补充了Friedman-Ball假设;而对于后者,呈现出更为复杂的N型非线性关系。本文的结论对中央银行控制通货膨胀不确定性具有一定的借鉴意义。     

Bank productivity in China 1997–2007: Measurement and convergence

This study examines the productivity growth of the nationwide banks of China and a sample of city commercial, banks for the ten years to 2007. Using a bootstrap method for the Malmquist index, estimates of the total factor productivity growth are constructed. Five different models of inputs and outputs based on variants of the Intermediation and Production approaches and non-performing loans are treated as a bad output, are examined for the purpose of arriving at a robust measure. The productivity growth of the state-owned commercial banks (SOCBs) is compared with the joint-stock banks (JSCBs) and city commercial banks (CCBs). In general, average TFP growth has been neutral over the period for the SOCBs and JSCBs but positive for the CCBs in the second part of the period. Efficiency gains (catch-up) were obtained through cost reduction and technical innovation was associated with greater diversification of revenue away from interest earnings. The opening up of the banking market has not led to a discernible improvement in bank productivity growth.     

Bootstrap prediction intervals for SETAR models

This paper considers four methods for obtaining bootstrap prediction intervals (BPIs) for the self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model. Method 1 ignores the sampling variability of the threshold parameter estimator. Method 2 corrects the finite sample biases of the autoregressive coefficient estimators before constructing BPIs. Method 3 takes into account the sampling variability of both the autoregressive coefficient estimators and the threshold parameter estimator. Method 4 resamples the residuals in each regime separately. A Monte Carlo experiment shows that (1) accounting for the sampling variability of the threshold parameter estimator is necessary, despite its super-consistency; (2) correcting the small-sample biases of the autoregressive parameter estimators improves the small-sample properties of bootstrap prediction intervals under certain circumstances; and (3) the two-sample bootstrap can improve the long-term forecasts when the error terms are regime-dependent.     

大宗交易对股票价格的影响因素分析

笔者以深圳证券交易所2012年大宗流通股交易记录为基础,从中选取日交易量在1000万股以上的股票,并以占总盘比不限、1％以下、1％以上为条件将大宗交易数据做统计分析,运用Eviews软件通过构建模型,对股票涨跌幅度的影响因素进行多元线性回归分析,结果表明折／溢价率及占总盘比对股票涨跌幅度有明显的正相关关系,以期这一结果为我国金融市场的发展提供有价值的参考,同时也为大宗交易的发展道路提供一定的借鉴。