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61.
Backtesting Value-at-Risk: A Duration-Based Approach 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Financial risk model evaluation or backtesting is a key partof the internal model's approach to market risk management aslaid out by the Basle Committee on Banking Supervision. However,existing backtesting methods have relatively low power in realisticsmall sample settings. Our contribution is the exploration ofnew tools for backtesting based on the duration of days betweenthe violations of the Value-at-Risk. Our Monte Carlo resultsshow that in realistic situations, the new duration-based testshave considerably better power properties than the previouslysuggested tests. 相似文献
62.
Hendrik Jurges 《The Scandinavian journal of economics》2001,103(3):391-414
I investigate whether a bequest motive for savings influences the post-retirement wealth trajectories of German households. Two measures of the bequest motive are studied: the existence of children as the main group of potential heirs and the respondents' declared intention to bequeath. While having children has no significant impact on households' wealth trajectories, stated bequest intentions are associated with considerable heterogeneity in wealth holdings. The main conclusion from this study is that both the pure life-cycle model and the life-cycle model with bequest motives provide a valid basis for a theory of household wealth accumulation once the heterogeneity of preferences is acknowledged.
JEL classification : D 91; J 14 相似文献
JEL classification : D 91; J 14 相似文献
63.
在特定的经济条件下,全社会货币需求量以及这个量的变动规律,是一国政府制定并执行货币政策和财政政策时所要考虑的重要参数。战后以来,西方国家政府一般是通过货币政策和财政政策的执行,最终影响产出量和就业水平。分析影响货币需求变动的因素及其变量之间的数量关系,是正确地预测货币需求变动的关键。加拿大的货币需求与其相关的经济因素之间的关系;加拿大货币供求与经济增长之间的关系。 相似文献
64.
Previous studies on international marketing have typically asked the question: “how is the demand characterized across countries?” Such analysis is then used to provide guidelines for firms to enter new markets and/or to allocate marketing resources across countries. To provide such normative guidelines, however, one also needs to analyze the supply-side of the problem, i.e., ask: “what is the likely market power that firms will be able to command in different countries?” Building on the New Empirical Industrial Organization (NEIO) framework, recent research in marketing provides marketers with a variety of models to explore competitive interactions among firms in the context of a single market. The goal of this paper is to extend this literature to a multimarket/multinational context to help international marketers assess the likely market power they face when entering new countries. We illustrate the proposed method on the mobile telecommunications industry, using price and quantity data from 10 countries around the world, estimating firms' market power as a function of a number of country characteristics.The results indicate that, while the simple presence of competition diminishes firms' market power, it does not lead to perfect competition. Interestingly, a higher number of competitors in a country does not seem to have significant incremental effect on market power. In contrast, the country's commitment to a severe antitrust policy has a significant negative effect, while the monopolist's lead-time before competition is allowed has a significant positive effect on market power. These findings, together with a change in price elasticities as a result of competition, suggest that market power in different countries may originate from two sources: (i) collusive pricing among cellular operators and (ii) consumers' switching costs across service providers. For international marketers, the findings imply that the attractiveness of wealthier countries (with usually faster diffusion rates and larger market potential) may be mitigated by higher levels of competition (as a result of developed antitrust regulation and more consumer exposure to competitive marketing practices). From a policy point of view, it suggests that (in contrast to the conventional wisdom) simple deregulation may not be enough to reduce prices to competitive levels. In addition, a severe antitrust policy is crucial to achieve this goal. 相似文献
65.
文章对四种汇率波动模型进行简要介绍与说明,指出中国渐进式的改革和开放决定了入世后人民币汇率的制度调整也应是渐进式的,现阶段人民币汇率制度的选择应实行目标区汇率制。 相似文献
66.
67.
本文针时我国企业在反倾销共同应诉中的不合作或者“搭使车”问题,试图探讨行业协会作为一种治理机制,如何提供或设计一种有效的制度安排(如俱乐部规范),把一群相互依存的企业组织起来,并通过自主性努力克服不合作或“搭便车”,以取得长期的共同利益的实现。 相似文献
68.
以油藏监测工作中的油藏压力监测为例,介绍了标准化工作在压力资料录取及解释分析中的作用。并用实例说明了标准化作业在油田开发方案的制定及油藏压力监测中的应用。 相似文献
69.
Predicting the geo-temporal variations of crime and disorder 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Traditional police boundaries—precincts, patrol districts, etc.—often fail to reflect the true distribution of criminal activity and thus do little to assist in the optimal allocation of police resources. This paper introduces methods for crime incident forecasting by focusing upon geographical areas of concern that transcend traditional policing boundaries. The computerised procedure utilises a geographical crime incidence-scanning algorithm to identify clusters with relatively high levels of crime (hot spots). These clusters provide sufficient data for training artificial neural networks (ANNs) capable of modelling trends within them. The approach to ANN specification and estimation is enhanced by application of a novel and noteworthy approach, the Gamma test (GT). 相似文献
70.
电子商务的风险管理与审计研究 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
电子商务尽管现在处于低潮期,但是作为重要的变革力量,它仍然是2l世纪的一个必然趋势。另外,电子商务发展受阻的一个重要原因就是电子商务的安全问题,这一问题影响了消费的决策,也极大地改变了企业的整个风险结构。本从外部审计与内部审计两个角度分析了审计可以在应对电子商务风险中发挥的重要作用。从外部审计来看,数据完整性与机密性是网站审计与认证的重要方面,从内部审计来看,审计应该在包括了电子商务风险的全面风险管理框架内发挥重要的作用。 相似文献