组织内员工关系与知识共享——基于工作关系与私人关系区分视角的实证分析

较正式的工作关系和非正式的私人关系是组织内员工间的两类基本关系,然而现有研究在探讨员工关系与知识共享间关系时,很少对这两类关系加以区分,对它们与员工知识共享间的作用机制缺乏足够的解释,文章对这一问题进行了初步探讨。在理论分析基础上,构建了员工工作关系、私人关系与知识共享间关系的概念模型,并讨论了作为情境变量的组织知识管理战略对上述关系的影响。基于问卷调查数据,对上述理论模型进行了实证检验,研究发现:工作关系和私人关系对员工知识共享都有显著的正面影响;工作关系在私人关系和员工知识共享间发挥中介作用;"人"导向的知识管理战略在私人关系和工作关系间发挥正向调节作用,并通过工作关系的中介作用对员工知识共享产生影响。最后,探讨了实证分析结果的理论意义和实践启示,并指出了进一步研究的方向。     

大学生社会创业动机结构研究

随着全球性社会创业的蓬勃兴起和我国构建和谐社会理念与实践的深入发展,在大学生就业形势日益严峻的形势下,大学生开展社会创业,对于缓解就业压力、解决社会民生问题、构建和谐社会都具有重要的现实意义。文章基于全国466名大学生社会创业者调查数据,对大学生社会创业动机的结构进行了实证分析。探索性因子分析结果表明:大学生社会创业动机有利他动机和利己动机。利他动机包括公共利益承诺、公平正义、奉献精神三个维度,利己动机包括成就导向和控制导向两个维度。验证性因子分析结果表明:进一步证实了大学生社会创业动机五因素结构模型。研究结果可用于我国大学生社会创业动机的测量,并为今后大学生社会创业动机与各种前因后果变量的相关研究提供定量分析基础。     

Forecasting UK house prices: A time varying coefficient approach

Previous studies of UK house prices, developed from the demand and supply ofhousing or from the asset market approach have been poor in terms of robustness and ex-post forecasting ability. The UK housing market has suffered a number of structural changes, particularly since the early 1980s with substantial house price increases, financial market deregulation and the removal of mortgage market constraints through competition. Consequently, models which assume that the underlying data-generating process is stable and apply constant parameter techniques tend to suffer in terms of parameter instability. This article uses the Time Varying Coefficient (TVC) methodology where the underlying data-generating process in the UK housing market is treated as unstable. The estimation results of the TVC regression of UK house prices is compared with those obtained from three alternative constant parameter regressions. Comparisons of forecasting performance suggest the TVC regression out-performs forecasts from an Error Correction Mechanism (ECM), Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and an Autoregressive Time Series regression.     

对发展个人跨境人民币业务的思考

随着对外开放程度的提高和对外经济交往的日益紧密,将跨境人民币结算业务扩展到个人领域的呼声渐高。本文从个人跨境人民币业务的现实需求入手,分析了开展个人跨境人民币业务的可行性,并对发展个人跨境人民币业务的管理框架和模式安排进行了探讨,以期为推进个人跨境人民币业务发展及实施有效管理提供参考。     

Return enhancement trading strategies for size based portfolios

Recent theoretical work suggests that definitions of market efficiency that allow for the possibility of time-varying risk-premia will generally lead to return sign predictability. Consistent with this theory, we show that a logit model based on the lagged value of the market risk premium is useful for successfully predicting the return sign for CRSP small decile portfolio returns, but not large ones. We additionally employ this model in market timing simulations of micro-cap mutual funds in which investment can actually be made. The results indicate that a market-timing strategy based on our return-sign forecasting model outperforms a buy-and-hold strategy for 13 of 14 micro-cap funds studied. On average, the buy-and-hold strategy produces an average compound return of 11.98% per annum versus an average of 16.60% for the market-timing strategy. Nevertheless, trading restrictions make the return-sign forecasting model more practical to employ by the micro-cap fund portfolio manager rather than the individual fund investor.

The effects of public spending externalities

We conduct a positive analysis on the effects of ‘externalities’ produced by government spending. To this effect, we estimate, using U.S. data, an RBC model with two salient features. First, we allow government consumption to directly affect the marginal utility of consumption. Second, we allow public capital to shift the productivity of private factors. We provide an identification analysis that supports the strategy adopted for estimating the parameters governing these two channels. On one hand, private and government consumption are robustly estimated to be substitute goods. Because of substitutability, labor supply reacts little to a government consumption shock, so the estimated output multiplier is much lower than in models with separabilities. On the other hand, our results point towards public investment being ‘unproductive’.     

创新视阈下专利许可公司商业模式解构研究

专利投机行为是专利运用的异化,其实施主体是被称为专利许可公司（NPEs）的非专利实施企业。从实施主体、专利类型、专利质量、许可关系及行为方式等要素系统解构专利许可公司的商业模式。在对专利投机行为盛行缘由和负面效应进行分析的基础上,运用NTP V. RIM和诺转型基亚两个经典案例,结合创新理论深刻揭示了专利许可公司的运营之道。     

The economic costs of biological predation

This paper developes a bioeconomic model to analyse the economic losses from the reduced harvesting of prey species resulting from an increase in the stock of a natural predator. Examples of large mammals creating economic damage are whales and African elephants. The economic losses depend critically on the actual management of the prey stock, although the three measures we develop are equal when the stock is managed so as to maximize the sustained economic rent from the prey species. Predation losses are illustrated by the case of the Northeastern Atlantic Minke whale, where the estimate of the average predation cost per whale in 1991–1992 is between $US 1780 and $US 2370, using Norwegian cost and earnings data. A ten percent stock increase is estimated to cause a loss of almost $US 19 million to the fishers of the prey species. If half of this cost were assigned to Norway it would be equivalent to 2.8 and 6.7 percent of the gross profits of the Norwegian cod and herring fisheries, respectively.     

The Significance of Credit Rationing on Real Investment Activity – A Test for the Significance of Capital-Market Imperfection in Japan

Does bank credit matter to the real investment finance of firms? If so, to what kind of firms does it matter, and why? Despite the progress of research in this field, there is still little empirical consensus on these problems. This paper contributes to the understanding of capital-market imperfection in Japan by answering these questions. I introduce new methods to test the significance of credit rationing and show that bank credit is indeed a very important determinant of real investment activity of small firms. The availability of long-term loans has particularly significant effects on the investment opportunities of small firms, although large firms with capital of more than 1 billion yen are free from credit rationing. JEL Classification Numbers: C51, E44, G21.     

An Agenda for Reforming Economic Theory

In this article, Nobel Prize Laureate Joseph Stiglitz argues that the standard macro-economic paradigm has failed not only to predict the crisis but also to provide insights into the design of a regulatory framework that would make a recurrence less likely. He points out that many of the underlying assumptions of the standard paradigm always seemed implausible and many of its predictions, such as those concerning the micro-economic behavior of the constituents (firms and households), are inconsistent with the empirical evidence. He then identifies a number of key modeling challenges, what he views as key ingredients that have to be incorporated in any model that is going to describe economic fluctuations or be the basis of a well-designed regulatory or monetary framework.