The role of (non-)transparency in a currency crisis model

This paper extends the work by Morris and Shin (Am. Econom. Rev. 88 (1998) 587-597) where multiple equilibria in the self-fulfilling currency attack models can be reduced to a unique equilibrium when agents observe fundamentals privately with small errors. We find that under a more general specification with realistic parameters, noisy private observations are generally insufficient to prevent the multiplicity of equilibria. The pivotal role played by the transparency of fundamentals/policies in currency crisis is also examined. Surprisingly, transparency may trigger rather than eliminate currency crises when fundamentals are relatively healthy. Our results may be relevant to research in other coordination problems.     

Income distribution and inequality measurement: The problem of extreme values

We examine the statistical performance of inequality indices in the presence of extreme values in the data and show that these indices are very sensitive to the properties of the income distribution. Estimation and inference can be dramatically affected, especially when the tail of the income distribution is heavy, even when standard bootstrap methods are employed. However, use of appropriate semiparametric methods for modelling the upper tail can greatly improve the performance of even those inequality indices that are normally considered particularly sensitive to extreme values.     

Properties and estimation of asymmetric exponential power distribution

The new distribution class, Asymmetric Exponential Power Distribution (AEPD), proposed in this paper generalizes the class of Skewed Exponential Power Distributions (SEPD) in a way that in addition to skewness introduces different decay rates of density in the left and right tails. Our parametrization provides an interpretable role for each parameter. We derive moments and moment-based measures: skewness, kurtosis, expected shortfall. It is demonstrated that a maximum entropy property holds for the AEPD distributions. We establish consistency, asymptotic normality and efficiency of the maximum likelihood estimators over a large part of the parameter space by dealing with the problems created by non-smooth likelihood function and derive explicit analytical expressions of the asymptotic covariance matrix; where the results apply to the SEPD class they enlarge on the current literature. Also we give a convenient stochastic representation of the distribution; our Monte Carlo study illustrates the theoretical results. We also provide some empirical evidence for the usefulness of employing AEPD errors in GARCH type models for predicting downside market risk of financial assets.     

C8051Fxxx单片机与GPS-OEM板数据通信的实现

讨论了读取GPS-OEM板定位数据的方法,以Itrax02为例讨论了GPS-OEM板的组成和特点,分析了NMEA-0183语句的数据格式及信息组成,并结合硬件特点研究了C8051Fxxx单片机实现GPS定位信息提取问题,并给出了单片机提取GPS定位信息有关的程序源代码.     

C8051F020单片机及其在双频激电仪中的应用

文章通过分析双频激电仪中存在的缺陷,引入了美国Cygnal公司推出的C8051F020单片机,并对该单片机的功能和特点进行了应用性探讨,给出了在双频激电仪中采用C8051F020单片机的系统设计构成。     

Sources of the great moderation: A time-series analysis of GDP subsectors

Recent work finds evidence that the volatility of the U.S. economy fell dramatically around the first quarter of 1984. We trace the timing of this so-called “Great Moderation” across many subsectors of the economy in order to better understand its root cause. We find that the interest rate sensitive sectors generally experience a much earlier volatility decline than other large sectors of the economy. The changes in Federal Reserve stabilization policies that occurred during the early 1980s support the view that an improved monetary policy played an important role in stabilizing real economic activity. We find only mild evidence that “good luck” was important and little evidence to support the claim that improved inventory management was important.     

Some evidence on factor intensity and price rigidity

This paper establishes a new empirical finding: the degree of labor intensity and the degree of price flexibility are negatively correlated across industrial sectors in the U.S. economy. This finding suggests that varying factor intensity can potentially generate different degrees of price stickiness across sectors and remove the need to exogenously impose the latter. Of course, labor intensity is just one more feature—in addition to others like the durability of goods produced and the degree of competition—that can explain some of the heterogeneity in price durations across sectors.     

A semiparametric panel model for unbalanced data with application to climate change in the United Kingdom

This paper is concerned with developing a semiparametric panel model to explain the trend in UK temperatures and other weather outcomes over the last century. We work with the monthly averaged maximum and minimum temperatures observed at the twenty six Meteorological Office stations. The data is an unbalanced panel. We allow the trend to evolve in a nonparametric way so that we obtain a fuller picture of the evolution of common temperature in the medium timescale. Profile likelihood estimators (PLE) are proposed and their statistical properties are studied. The proposed PLE has improved asymptotic property comparing the sequential two-step estimators. Finally, forecasting based on the proposed model is studied.     

Likelihood-based scoring rules for comparing density forecasts in tails

We propose new scoring rules based on conditional and censored likelihood for assessing the predictive accuracy of competing density forecasts over a specific region of interest, such as the left tail in financial risk management. These scoring rules can be interpreted in terms of Kullback-Leibler divergence between weighted versions of the density forecast and the true density. Existing scoring rules based on weighted likelihood favor density forecasts with more probability mass in the given region, rendering predictive accuracy tests biased toward such densities. Using our novel likelihood-based scoring rules avoids this problem.     

旅游服务供应链形成动因及其模式演进

首先从旅游产品和服务及其需求两个角度归纳出旅游服务供应链的特点,从客户、经济和环境价值三方面剖析了旅游服务供应链的形成动因,探究了电子商务对其深远影响。在此基础上,探讨了传统旅游服务供应链模式和基于B2C电子商务旅游服务供应链多元化结构模式的构建,对旅游服务供应链的演进过程进行了全面总结,完善了旅游服务供应链的架构。