Spillovers among CDS indexes in the US financial sector

By employing the robust cross-correlation function approach proposed by Hong (2001), and conducting pre-tests for structural breaks in the variances as well as removing the causality-in-mean effects in the causality-in-variance tests, we investigate volatility and mean transmissions between the credit default swaps (CDS) indexes of three US financial sectors. We use daily series on five-year banking, insurance, and financial services sector CDS indexes at the sector level from January 2004 to December 2011. We find evidence of significant causality-in-mean effects running from the banking sector to the insurance and financial services sector CDS indexes and from the financial services to the insurance sector CDS indexes, suggesting the leading role of the banking and financial services sectors in terms of price discovery. Moreover, we find significant causality-in-variance effects from the financial services sector CDS index to that of the banking sector, implying the existence of information transmission and contagion from the former, the least regulated of the three. The implications of these findings on traders and policymakers are also provided.     

Euro area sovereign yield spreads as determinants of private sector borrowing costs

We regress long-term private-sector borrowing rates on a money market rate, a term premium and credit risk. As a contribution to the current debate about European safe assets, our interest is in quantifying the impact of euro area sovereign bond spreads on private-sector lending by employing it as a proxy for private-sector credit risk. Panel estimates show significant, albeit rather small long-run effects. Another finding is large cross-country heterogeneity. Using linear country-specific estimates, we find the effect to be significant in only some countries, but the size of the maximum effect in these countries exceeds the average one more than three-fold. Furthermore, for one country, we find an asymmetrical effect with positive spread changes having greater impact on private-sector borrowing costs than negative ones. Substantial heterogeneity of the spillover effect between euro area countries indicates the presence of financial valuation effects based not only on economic fundamentals. This, in turn, implies that spillovers may entail contagion costs. Overall, our results suggest that these costs are considerable in the euro area and will remain so until an effective form of European safe assets is created.     

Modeling the dependence structure between default risk premium,equity return volatility and the jump risk: Evidence from a financial crisis

This paper investigates the dependence structure between default risk premium, equity return volatility and jump risk in the equity market before and during the subprime crisis. Using iTraxx CDS index spreads from Japanese and Australian markets, the paper models the different relationships that can exist in different ranges of behavior. We consider several Archimedean copula models with different tail dependence structures, namely, Gumbel, Clayton, Frank, AMH and Joe copulas. Although the dramatic change in the levels of the iTraxx CDS index, we find strong evidence that the dependence structure between CDS and stock market conditions is asymmetric and orienting toward the upper side. In addition, we find that the Japanese CDS market is more sensitive to the stock return volatility than the jump risk and the magnitude of this sensitivity is related to the market circumstances. However, Australian CDS market is more sensitive to the jump risk than stock return volatility before and during the financial crisis. This result has important implications for both global financial stability and default risk management. Specifically, the heterogeneity of markets, coupled with the diversity in the risk exposures cause the default risk premium and equity markets to exhibit different levels of sensitivity.     

Do investors in Green Bond market pay a premium? Global evidence

We examine the pricing difference of Green Bonds (GB) and conventional bonds (CBs) in capital markets worldwide. Credit spread is used to observe whether investors would like to pay a premium for GBs over CBs. This study uses panel data regression with hybrid model to analyse daily observations over the period 2016 to 2017. We employ Option-Adjusted spread (OAS) to measure the credit spreads of bonds while controlling for bond specific, macroeconomic and global factors that influence the spread. With the hybrid model used in the panel data analysis, we were able to capture the fixed-effects of variables in a random effect model. We find that GBs are traded at a premium of 63 basis points (BPS), compared with a comparable corporate bond issue. We find that the green label provides issuers an incentive to raise funds through issuing GBs while providing investors an opportunity to diversify their investments returns. Our findings provide several implications to the major stakeholders driving the GB market to scale up the market to finance the required level of global green investment needs. We stress an urgent need to support the growth of the GB market to achieve sustainable development through mitigating climate change challenges.

Abbreviation GB: Green Bond; CB: Conventional Bond; YS: Yield Spread; BPS: Basis Points; OAS: Option-Adjusted Spread; PCSE: Panels Corrected Standard Errors; CPI: Consumer Price Index; GBPs: Green Bond Principles; CBS: Climate Bond Standard     

A Polarization Index for Overlapping Groups

The well‐known index of income bipolarization proposed by Wolfson (1994) requires two groups to be split according to the median income and, therefore, to be non‐overlapping. The aim of this paper is to propose a new polarization index in the spirit of the Wolfson index. It allows for any possible partition of the population in two or more (also overlapping) groups. The new index maintains the simplicity and immediate comprehension of the Wolfson index, though being much more flexible. An application is then provided for German and Italian income data.     

建党前毛泽东推动马克思主义在湖南传播及其特点初探

建党前毛泽东推动马克思主义在湖南传播的努力有：创办《湘江评论》和文化书社;成立俄罗斯、马克思研究会;批判改良主义和无政府主义等,并形成了鲜明的特点。     

住房抵押贷款支持证券的利率风险度量——基于"建元2005-1 MBS"A证券的实证

住房抵押贷款支持证券中隐含期权的存在导致未来现金流不确定,久期和凸度等利率风险管理工具不再适用。本文基于OAS理念建立了住房抵押贷款支持证券的利率风险度量过程:采用多项式样条函数法构建零息票收益率曲线,采用Vasicek模型描述动态利率期限结构,通过蒙特卡罗方法模拟利率路径并确定未来现金流,采用ARMA模型描述和预测提前偿付率,进而计算出OAS、有效久期和有效凸度的值。最后以建元2005-1MBSA证券为对象进行了实证研究。     

论美国国际集团CDS交易中存在的三大风险

关于国际保险业巨头美国国际集团AIG被接管这一事件,学者的分析大多集中在市场监管和AIG的宏观操作失误层面。本文从保险集AIG的角度,详细分析了金融子公司AIGFP在信用违约互换CDS交易中存在的三大风险,即提前终止风险、估值风险和追加抵押额风险。结合分析,本文对保险公司今后的发展给出了几点建议。     

基于买卖价差的我国股票市场流动性调整的风险价值研究

由于我国股票市场是一个典型的订单驱动型市场,存在报价深度不充分的问题,传统的买卖价差不能真正反映流动性风险,针对这一情形,文章以个股日最高价与最低价之间的价差为度量指标,结合经流动性调整的风险价值模型（BDSS）,考察了沪市25个行业的25只样本股票面临的流动性风险值。实证表明,我国股市存在较大的流动性风险,个股之间的流动性层次区分度不高,呈现出较大的趋同性,流通股本数与流动性风险值呈显著的负相关,而流通市值与流动性风险值呈显著的正相关关系。     

Dynamics of CDS spread indexes of US financial sectors

This article examines the Credit Default Swap (CDS) spread index for three sectors, banking, financial services and insurance, in the short and long run. In the long run, the results show that the index of the insurance sector which sells the long term CDS contracts has the highest adjustment, while the banking sector is not error correcting. In the short run, although the insurance sector CDS spread index has general predictive power of all sector CDS spreads, the evidence suggests that the banking sector particularly leads the financial services and this in turn leads the insurance sector, implying a leading sector CDS pricing role for the banking spreads in the short run. The short run sensitivity Generalized Impulse Response Function (GIRF) and Generalized Variance Decomposition (GVDC) analyses also demonstrate that the sectors’ credit risk responds more to credit events in the banking sector than in the other two sectors other than their own over a 50 day horizon. However, the lowest cross sector CDS shock impacts in the short run come from the insurance sector. These results are useful for regulators wishing to embark on new regulations of these financial institutions such as Basel III.