中国碳金融发展:决定于经济还是环境?——基于结构方程模型

气候变化为全球带来严峻考验,碳金融是对气候变化的有效应对,碳金融的发展在我国究竟决定于经济还是环境?采用结构方程模型对碳金融发展的影响因素做出实证分析。结果表明:现阶段我国的经济因素和居民因素对碳金融发展有抑制作用;居民因素在经济因素对碳金融发展影响的路径中起到中介作用,对环境因素产生负效应;环境因素与碳金融发展存在互惠关系,在碳金融发展中起突出作用。最后从科学顶层设计、依法治理,推动低碳经济产业的优化,强化居民、企业环保意识,加强污染防治与生态建设等方面给出建议。     

Not seeing the carbon for the trees? Why area-based targets for establishing new woodlands can limit or underplay their climate change mitigation benefits

Area-based targets for afforestation are a frequent and prominent component of policy discourses on forestry, land use and climate change emissions abatement. Such targets imply an expected contribution of afforestation to the net reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, yet the nature of afforestation undertaken and its geographical distribution means that there is considerable uncertainty over the eventual emission reductions outcomes. This uncertainty is reduced if the net carbon balance is calculated for all potential afforestation sites, considering climate, soil characteristics and the possible types of afforestation (species and management regimes). To quantify the range of possible emissions outcomes for area-based afforestation targets, a new spatial analysis method was implemented. This improved the integration of spatial data on antecedent land use with mapped outputs from forest models defining the suitability and productivity of eleven forestry management alternatives. This above ground carbon data was then integrated with outputs from the ECOSSE (Estimation of Carbon in Organic Soils – Sequestration and Emissions) model which simulates the soil carbon dynamics. The maps and other model output visualisations combining above and below ground carbon highlight where net carbon surpluses and deficits are likely to occur, how long they persist after afforestation and their relationships with antecedent land use, soils, weather conditions and afforestation management strategies. Using more productive land classes delivers more net sequestration per hectare and could mean greater carbon storage than anticipated by emissions reduction plans. Extensive establishment of lower yielding trees on low-quality ground, with organo-mineral soils could, though, result in net emissions that persist for decades. From the spatial analysis, the range of possible outcomes for any target area of planting is substantial, meaning that outcomes are highly sensitive to policy and implementation decisions on the mix of forestry systems preferred and to spatial targeting or exclusions (both at regional and local scales). The paper highlights the importance of retaining the existing presumption against planting of deep peat areas, but also that additional incentives or constraints may be needed to achieve the aggregate rates of emission mitigation implied by policy commitments. Supplementary carbon storage tonnage targets for new forestry would introduce a floor for carbon sequestration outcomes, but would still allow for flexibility in achieving an appropriate balance in the trade-offs between carbon sequestration and the many other objectives that new woodlands are expected to deliver.     

国际碳排放权交易价格决定与最优出口规模研究

本文分析了总量控制和交易、基准排放和信用两种碳排放权交易体系中的价格决定原理,并以边际减排成本等于市场均衡价格为基础,分析《京都议定书》框架下国际碳排放权交易规模和利益分配不公等情况;然后构建两阶段模型,讨论“非附件B国家”碳排放权出口规模的决定因素及其影响效应,并通过估测中国碳排放权出口规模决定因素的函数值或参数值,计算中国第1承诺期的最优出口量;最后提出中国参与国际碳排放权交易的政策建议。     

河南省化石能源利用及工业生产过程碳排放的估算——基于2000～2009年数据的实证

为了探求河南省化石能源消耗及工业生产过程对省域碳循环影响,利用ORNL和EEA提出的区域碳排放和碳吸收定量模型,估算并分析了2000～2009年河南省域碳均衡动态变化.结果表明:2000～2009年河南省碳排放量为119295.76×104t,其中化石燃料排放量占碳排放总规模92.3％,工业生产过程碳排放为7.7％;煤...     

改进的区域旅游业碳足迹测度模型及张家界实证研究

将成分法和生命周期法结合运用,建立起区域旅游业温室气体排放的测算模型,将区域旅游业的碳足迹分为旅游开发过程中的碳足迹,旅游消费过程中的旅游交通碳足迹、旅游餐饮碳足迹、旅游购物碳足迹、旅游住宿碳足迹、旅游游览碳足迹、旅游娱乐碳足迹,旅游废弃物处理过程中的旅游用水碳足迹和旅游固体废弃物碳足迹,并对张家界旅游业碳足迹进行实证分析。结果表明,张家界的旅游业属于低碳旅游业。     

Structural production layer decomposition: a new method to measure differences between MRIO databases for footprint assessments

Recent empirical assessments revealed that footprint indicators calculated with various multi-regional input–output (MRIO) databases deliver deviating results. In this paper, we propose a new method, called structural production layer decomposition (SPLD), which complements existing structural decomposition approaches. SPLD enables differentiating between effects stemming from specific parts in the technology matrix, e.g. trade blocks vs. domestic blocks, while still allowing to link the various effects to the total region footprint. Using the carbon footprint of the EU-28 in 2011 as an example, we analyse the differences between EXIOBASE, Eora, GTAP and WIOD. Identical environmental data are used across all MRIO databases. In all model comparisons, variations in domestic blocks have a more significant impact on the carbon footprint than variations in trade blocks. The results provide a wealth of information for MRIO developers and are relevant for policy makers designing climate policy measures targeted to specific stages along product supply chains.     

碳金融交易金融支持路径选择——建立地方性碳金融政策性银行

低碳经济是当前全世界关注的话题.我国发展低碳经济也十分必要和紧迫,但同时也面临着能源结构以煤为主,技术相对落后的局面.在低碳经济引发碳金融市场迅速发展的过程中,政策性银行的作用应该得到发挥,特别是在上海建设国际金融中心的过程中,可以尝试建立地方性碳金融政策性银行.文章从建立碳金融政策性银行的理论依据入手,即碳减排产品的公共特征和外部特征,政策性银行的政策性和银行性两大特点,分析了建立地方性碳金融政策性银行在理论上有依据,政策层面上有支持,以及技术层面上的可行性.从而得出了应该抓住机遇,尝试性建立地方性碳金融政策性银行,促进我国的碳减排的结论.     

碳税的产业竞争力效应分析

如何在减排的同时更好地促进我国经济发展,已成为一个亟须解决的问题。碳税是减少碳排放的一种重要手段。碳税开征与否的一个主要争论在于:征收碳税是否会影响产业竞争力。在制定碳税政策时,需要考虑碳税实施后对产业竞争力产生影响的可能性及程度,采取相应补偿措施,实现节能减排的目的。     

欧盟碳税政策的经验与启示

随着全球气候变化带来的恶劣影响进一步加剧,减缓和适应气候变化已成为世界各国所关心的重要议题。越来越多的国家采取了各种温室气体减排措施,征收碳税就是其中之一。目前欧盟一些国家已实行碳税,并取得了一定的效果。以芬兰、丹麦、瑞典和英国为例,对这四个国家的碳税情况进行比较分析,以期对中国有所启示。