基于金融形势指数的货币政策操作风险研究

在货币政策操作过程中,中央银行对宏观经济形势的认识偏差,货币政策工具及政策调控时机的选择不当,以及政策信息的披露不及时等,都有可能误导公众预期和增加市场不确定性,从而引致货币政策操作风险。通过建立金融形势指数并考察其实际值与均衡值之间的离差状况,结果表明金融形势指数及其偏差可用于间接测度政策操作风险的大小,所得到的风险指数可作为宏观调控中的参考指标。     

中部六省生态现代化水平评价研究

随着经济的发展,资源的约束越来越突出,在这种情况下,为了保证经济＂又好又快＂的发展,我国经济结构面临转型,即从过去那种＂高投入、高能耗、高污染、低产出＂的模式向＂低投入、低能耗、低污染、高产出＂转变。中部地区作为国家重要的能源产出地区,资源消耗和环境污染问题在全国来说显得更加突出,在这种情况下,国家在中部的改革试验区提出＂两型＂社会建设目标,是一种具有全局意义的战略考虑,也是我国实施生态现代化的路径选择之一。本文构建了生态现代化发展的评价指标体系,并以中部六省2008年统计数据进行了实证分析,结果显示湖南生态现代化水平有快速提高的趋势,也说明湖南＂两型＂社会建设初有成效。而其中,社会生态现代化较低表明,湖南仍需加大民生建设,让民众切实分享现代化的益处。最后本文在对实证结果分析的基础上提出了湖南省生态现代化发展的建议与对策。     

Determinants of smallholder farmers' participation in banana markets in Central Africa: the role of transaction costs

A bivariate probit model was employed to jointly and separately estimate banana market participation decisions of buying and selling households in Rwanda and Burundi using household survey data. Selectivity bias was corrected for estimating the transacted volumes using Heckman's procedure. The results showed that transaction cost‐related factors such as geographical location of households, market information sources, and travel time to the nearest urban center influence market participation. Non‐price‐related factors such as security of land tenure, labor availability, off‐farm income, gender of the household head, and years of farming experience had a significant influence on the transacted volumes. Output prices had a significant correlation with sales volume, indicating price incentives increased supply by sellers. Generally, the findings suggest that policies aimed at investments in rural road infrastructure, market information systems, collective marketing, and value addition of banana products may provide a potential avenue for mitigating transaction costs and enhancing market participation and production of marketed surplus by rural households.     

次贷危机以来中央银行的作为——对中美两国央行资产负债表的考察和分析

随着次贷危机及之后蔓延全球的金融危机不断发展,对危机的研究也从不同角度展开。由于中央银行是负责一国货币政策的政府部门,也是危机中能够做出迅速有力反应的机构,因此对中央银行的研究非常重要。本文以中、美两国的中央银行作为观察对象,以它们的资产负债表作为切入点,研究中央银行在危机以来的行为。本文首先对2007年以来两国中央银行资产负债表的基本情况进行观察;然后对两个央行的资产负债表中所表现出的一些特征进行分析;进而对形成这些特征的原因及相关问题进行深入的探讨;最后对全文进行总结。     

货币政策透明度指数:理论方法与实证检验

文章通过建立货币政策透明度指数,并利用我国金融市场的利率数据进行检验,认为我国中央银行在基准利率调整和准备金率改变等重大政策决策上,货币当局更倾向于采用模糊的政策操作方式,由此可能会导致市场预期的混乱,并最终对政策实施效果产生负面影响。因此,我国有必要借鉴西方国家的政策操作经验,进一步有选择地增加货币政策操作的透明度,并借以最终建立一个简单透明、效率更高的政策调控框架。     

新疆农产品面向中亚市场“走出去”的动因、制约因素及其对策建议

在上海合作组织和中亚区域合作机制下,中国新疆与中亚国家的农业合作日趋紧密。无论从近期还是从长远来看,要实现中国农业的可持续发展,不断增加农民收入,不仅要开拓农产品市场空间,更要充分利用国际国内两种资源。对中国而言,中亚一方面是中国一个巨大的农产品需求市场,另一方面其农业资源条件可以共同开发和利用。开展与中亚国家农业合作、开发资源、销售产品,可以为新疆农业发展和农民增收探索新的空间。     

Agro-food trade competitiveness of Central European and Balkan countries

This paper investigates the level, composition, and differences in agro-food relative trade advantages/disadvantages for eight Central European and Balkan countries on the European Union (EU) markets and their implications for food policy. Higher and more stable relative trade advantages are found for bulk primary raw agricultural commodities and less for consumer-ready foods, implying competitiveness shortcomings in food processing and in international food marketing. Duration analysis shows that the EU enlargement has a negative impact on agro-food relative trade advantages for all eight analyzed countries. Estimations imply that the duration of agro-food relative trade advantages are the highest for Hungary and Poland, and for Bulgaria in differentiated products, indicating their agro-food trade potentials in the EU-15 markets.     

Are price strategies effective in managing demand of high residential water users?

Encouraging water use efficiency and water conservation is one of the primary goals of water utility companies nationwide. This study estimates price elasticity of residential water demand to measure the responsiveness of water use to price changes, particularly for high water users. Household-level water use data for high residential water users from Central Florida were analysed using 3-stage least square (3SLS). Estimated price elasticity ranges between ?0.07 and ?0.14. This price elasticity estimate is below most of the estimates reported in the literature (in absolute value). The results imply that for price strategies to be effective in managing water demand of high residential water users, a significant price increase would be needed. Overall, this study highlights the importance of designing water conservation policies tailored to specific groups of customers, and the importance of using these strategies effectively and fairly for different customer groups.     

Finance and income inequality in Kazakhstan: evidence since transition with policy suggestions

Kazakhstan gained independence in 1990 and has undergone significant changes in economic, social and trade conditions since then. We analyse the effects of financial development on income inequality in Kazakhstan, incorporating economic growth, foreign investment, education and the role of democracy as the drivers. We establish that income inequality in Kazakhstan is impaired by financial development. In summary, we send three messages for policy purposes. First, strengthening financial sector is necessary to close the gap between ‘haves and have-nots’. Second, attracting FDI beyond the hydrocarbon sector is necessary to alleviate inequality. Finally, adaptation of education system to the new social and economic environment would help in improving income distribution.