Dissecting models' forecasting performance

The fact that the predictive performance of models used in forecasting stock returns, exchange rates, and macroeconomic variables is not stable and varies over time has been widely documented in the forecasting literature. Under these circumstances excessive reliance on forecast evaluation metrics that ignores this instability in forecasting accuracy, like squared errors averaged over the whole forecast evaluation sample, masks important information regarding the temporal evolution of relative forecasting performance of competing models. In this paper we suggest an approach based on the combination of the Cumulated Sum of Squared Forecast Error Differential (CSSFED) of Welch and Goyal (2008) and the Bayesian change point analysis of Barry and Hartigan (1993) that tracks the contribution of forecast errors to the aggregate measures of forecast accuracy observation by observation. In doing so, it allows one to track the evolution of the relative forecasting performance over time. We illustrate the suggested approach by using forecasts of the GDP growth rate in Switzerland.     

THE NORMALIZED CES PRODUCTION FUNCTION: THEORY AND EMPIRICS

Abstract The elasticity of substitution between capital and labor and, in turn, the direction of technical change are critical parameters in many fields of economics. Until recently, though, the application of production functions with specifically non‐unitary substitution elasticities (i.e., non‐Cobb–Douglas) was hampered by empirical and theoretical uncertainties. As recently revealed, ‘normalization’ of production‐technology systems holds out the promise of resolving many of those uncertainties. We survey and assess the intrinsic links between production (as conceptualized in a production function), factor substitution (as made most explicit in Constant Elasticity of Substitution functions) and normalization (defined by the fixing of baseline values for relevant variables). First, we recall how the normalized Constant Elasticity of Substitution function came into existence and what normalization implies for its formal properties. Then we deal with the key role of normalization in recent advances in the theory of business cycles and of economic growth. Next, we discuss the benefits normalization brings for empirical estimation and empirical growth research. Finally, we identify promising areas of future research.     

Variability of User-Based Evaluative Standards for Backcountry Encounters

Backcountry visitors are often surveyed regarding their personal evaluative standards (or norms) for acceptable levels of encounters with other groups. In this study, backpackers at Grand Canyon National Park were asked about the acceptability of encounters at several times: at home prior to their trip, once each day during their trip, and at-home after their trip. Thus it was possible to assess spatial and temporal variability within individuals, as well as variation among individuals, in both the ability to provide a personal evaluative standard about number of encounters and the standard provided. Results suggest that backcountry visitors differentiate between zones in the Grand Canyon backcountry managed to provide diverse settings, including visitor density. However, there was substantial variation in the standards provided both among individuals and over time within individuals.     

Greening the balanced scorecard

Environmental management issues have received an increased amount of attention in recent years, as have various performance measurement systems (PMS) such as the balanced scorecard (BSC). However, implementation of these systems is challenging due to the differences found amongst the companies and users of PMS. This study investigates how the presence of particular supporting factors served to facilitate a PMS change that incorporated environmental measures. Utilization of extant change models enables us to investigate different change factors like advancing and hindering forces, momentum, and the leaders of change. We found two models appropriate for investigating environmental management accounting change, even though the change factors can be either dynamic or static. The study also proposes that company culture should be carefully taken into account when companies are changing their PMS. Technical changes to PMS are far easier to accomplish than are changes to a dominant culture. Finally, we suggest that utilizing the BSC for the purposes of environmental management is a worthwhile pursuit.     

变化环境中的中国共产党调适性——海外中国研究的视角

在最近的十余年中,西方学界出现了对中国共产党调适性的研究,它以共产党国家体制持久性为研究问题,以中国共产党的能动行为为研究对象,探讨中国共产党在变化环境中的调适现象。文章认为,这一研究有着西方式的问题意识,对中国共产党在变化环境中的能动做出了多层面的分析,带动了以党为中心的研究范式的复兴。但是,这一研究仍受限于西方政治理论与政治文化场景的影响,有其内在的问题。     

Consumption and the retail change process: a comparative analysis of toy retailing in Italy and France

Set in the context of a review and critique of the retail change literature, this study conceptualizes the importance of cultural diversity in consumption practices, and their dialectical interplay with retail structures. Underpinned theoretically by concepts located in Critical Theory and Bourdieu's studies of 'Distinctions', a grounded approach at a macro-level of analysis is applied to the comparison of the French and Italian toy retail sectors, which serves as an empirical illustration of the conceptual categories and relationships posited. In the comparative analysis of the French and Italian toy retail industry, the links between market structures and macro-economic and demographic factors, on the one hand, and localized consumption habits, on the other, are discussed, highlighting the interplay of the properties of the emergent retail activity and consumption categories of analysis. The impact of global sourcing and market entry of international retailers is assessed. Conclusions point to the importance of the forcefield between localized meaning and the dynamics of toy retail capital. It is argued that the commodity form of toys, together with the values attached to them and the role they play in childhood, is influencing the structures of national toy retail sectors which are also dependent on the overall retail system and broader environmental factors. In this, retail change processes take place as a result of the interactions between the different spheres and their particular expressions cannot be generalized across borders as they depend on the specific dynamics within each system.     

从“腾笼换鸟”分析东莞市经济产业转型

本文从东莞过去30年中经济产业发展历程出发,分析了东莞经济发展特点以及所面临的资源、市场等方面的挑战。分析了东莞经济产业转型的必然性和紧迫性。进而提出东莞市在未来经济产业转型过程中应当采取的措施。最后通过总体分析和思考,总结了政府作为、区域环境、企业自身三者的相互作用关系,提出三方力量相互配合的科学运作模式。     

The Methodological and Ethical Issues of Conducting Management Research in the Voluntary Sector

This article discusses the methodological and ethical issues involved in conducting research in the voluntary sector. By outlining a proposed research strategy the authors highlight the challenges and issues that voluntary sector researchers face. The article concludes that the nature of the voluntary sector and the unique characteristics of voluntary organizations not only impact on the development of voluntary sector management theory but also on the research design, ethics and practices adopted for empirical studies into voluntary organizations.     

The Pursuit of Significance

The results of a large scale research project among top public managers in The Netherlands are presented. On the basis of Likert-scaling the degree of Change Orientation is measured. Change Orientation consists of five components: commitment to values; serving the public; empowerment and shared leadership; pragmatic incremen-talism and dedication to public service.