股权分置改革后股票市场与宏观经济关系分析

运用邹氏参数稳定性检验,发现股权分置改革前后股票市场指数与宏观经济变量发生了明显的结构性的变化。参数是非稳定的。要实现股票市场发展与经济基本面、股市波动与宏观经济运行状况相关联,真正实现股票市场“晴雨表”的功能,积极引导资源的优化配置,须进一步完善股票市场的运行机制。     

Another Look at Chow's Test for the Equality of Two Heteroscedastic Regression Models

This paper reviews tests of equality between the sets of coefficients in thetwo linear regression models, and examines the effect of heteroscedasticityin each model on the behaviour of one such test. A Monte Carlo evaluation,of the size in particular, shows that the usual Chow's F-ratio is wellbehaved as long as the sample sizes in the two models are equal and the twomodels exhibit the same form of heteroscedasticity which is moderate in thecontext of the values used. In such situations it is recommended that thetest be used directly to avoid the extra efforts involved in transformingthe original data in order to attain homoscedasticity.     

The Asian Financial Crisis and Investors’ Risk Aversion

This paper investigates whether changes in U.S. and Japanese banks’ risk aversion, measured by changes in the relative risk aversion (RRA) coefficient, are associated with the 1997 Asian financial crisis. It finds that an increase in U.S. banks’ risk aversion is unambiguously associated with the Asian crisis, while an increase in Japanese banks’ risk aversion is only weakly associated. The results suggest that, in addition to deteriorating fundamentals of the affected countries, investors’ (banks’) increased risk aversion appears to have reinforced observed capital outflows.     

改进后的邹至庄检验的应用研究——以美国个人可支配收入和个人储蓄数据为例

面对模型形式设定不合适导致邹至庄检验灵敏度下降的问题,提出改进方法,以提高邹至庄检验的灵敏度。并使用改进后的邹至庄检验来分析经济政策效果的作用时间以及经济系统之间的协动性。实证结果显示：运用改进后的检验方法可以有效地对经济波动周期作出阶段性描述和划分,也能对政策效果的作用时间进行有效估计。同时,经济系统之间变化的协动性也得到有效度量。     

Is sustainable tourism an obstacle to the economic performance of the tourism industry? Evidence from an international empirical study

Sustainability has become an important strategic objective for tourism destinations worldwide. All analytical tourism competitiveness models make direct or indirect positive references to sustainability. It is accepted that sustainable tourism can reduce resource costs and help create market differentiation. Nevertheless, it has traditionally been considered that, short term, sustainability measures can reduce profitability and compromise competitiveness. Debates on the progress, implications, and practicality of sustainable tourism remain open. The relationship between economic sustainability, and environmental and sociocultural sustainability, is a central but largely unresearched area for tourism scholars, especially at the macro level. This study explores that difficult but essential area, using the World Economic Forum's empirical evidence from 128 countries, backed by the economic data search tool of the World Travel & Tourism Council. It demonstrates that progress in tourism sustainability does not affect a country's main economic tourism indicators in the short term, and does not constrain profitability and competitiveness. It also finds that sustainable tourism is not a luxury that only rich countries can afford, nor should it prevent development and perpetuate poverty in developing countries. An effective marketing and communication program about sustainable tourism is, however, found to be essential for economic success.     

新型农村金融机构与农村经济增长

新型农村金融机构经过四年的发展,是否达到设立初期银监会、人民银行所要实现的目标吸引各界广泛关注。从我国新型农村金融机构"服务三农"的视角出发建立计量经济学模型,本文运用邹氏检验,发现新型农村金融机构的发展对我国农村经济的发展起到了较好的促进作用,不仅完善了我国金融体系,也更好地支持了"三农"服务,所以还应加大业务建设、明确市场定位和增强政策支持。     

上证市场β系数稳定性的实证研究

β系数是测度投资对象系统风险的重要指标 ,但其有效前提是β系数必须具有时序稳定性和预测稳定性。我们利用邹至庄间断点检验和邹至庄预测失败检验对上海证券市场中的样本股票及构造的证券组合的β系数稳定性进行分析 ,结果表明 :多数个股的 β系数具有时序稳定性 ,大多数个股和证券组合的 β系数具有预测稳定性 ,但与个股相比 ,证券组合的β系数稳定性并没有显著提高 ;随着规模的扩大 ,证券组合的β系数稳定性没有显著提高 ,反而有所下降。     

西部大开发战略政策实施效果实证研究——以新疆维吾尔自治区为例

西部大开发战略实施以来,学术界对其政策实施效果的评价观点不一。本文以新疆维吾尔自治区为例,通过建立考虑技术进步因素的生产函数及应用邹至庄断点检验得到新疆经济在2000年后加速发展的结论。以此,从一个侧面证明西部大开发战略对于西部地区经济发展收到了一定的成效。     

浙江农村居民收入与生活消费支出的动态关系研究

文章在凯恩斯消费函数的基础上,利用协整理论,采用1978—2007年的年度统计数据,深入探讨了浙江农村居民收入与生活消费支出的动态相关性。基于邹至庄检验结果,分别对1978—1989年和1990—2007年两个时期收入一消费关系进行协整检验,得出两者之间存在着长期稳定均衡关系的结论,由此对收入与消费建立误差修正模型。实证分析的结果表明浙江农村居民收入和生活消费支出之间存在动态均衡机制。     

中国投资、储蓄与消费之间关系的实证研究

中国经济要保持持续的高速发展,必须平衡好投资、储蓄与消费之间的关系。本文通过Solow黄金储蓄率的测算,发现1995年后中国的储蓄率居高不下。通过Chow Test对消费和GDP之间关系的检验,可以把1981～2008年中国经济分为两个阶段。通过对比发现1995年后,不论是消费倾向,或者是消费的GDP弹性都有较大降幅,而且消费开始不能拉动GDP增长。此外,本文分析了居民储蓄、企业储蓄和政府投资对于经济增长的作用变化,发现住房储蓄促进经济的作用有限,而通过减税提高企业储蓄能够提升经济发展潜力。