中国保险理赔制度变迁的经济学分析

中国保险理赔制度安排由传统保险人自行理赔制度 (非中介理赔方式 )向保险公估制度 (中介理赔方式 )转化的制度变迁已长达 12年 ,但既未取得预期的经济绩效 ,又没有获得长足的发展 ,而是陷入了非绩效的理赔制度的“闭锁状态”。为此 ,本文结合中国本土实际创造性地运用了有关制度变迁理论文献的重要思想方法 ,从经济学角度提供了合乎逻辑的理论解释。长期、动态地看 ,中国保险理赔制度变迁退出“锁定”状态的演进过程和趋势 ,应是社会成员和政府组织基于利益冲突和利益协调 ,通过内部规则和外部规则的平等、动态的市场博弈而自发型构的制度市场演进。     

On the Prediction of Corporate Financial Distress in the Light of the Financial Crisis: Empirical Evidence from Greek Listed Firms

This paper evaluates the impact of accounting and market-driven information on the prediction of bankruptcy for Greek firms using the discrete hazard approach. The findings show that a hazard model that incorporates three accounting ratio components of Z-score and three market-driven variables is the most appropriate model for the prediction of corporate financial distress in Greece. This model outperforms a univariate model that uses the expected default frequency (EDF) derived from the Merton distance to default model, a multivariate model that is exclusively based on accounting variables, a model that combines the EDF and accounting variables, and a multivariate model that uses only market-driven variables. Classification accuracy and bankruptcy forecast tests confirm the main results. The model is also able to sustain high long-term performance when augmenting the forecast horizon from one to two and three years.     

智能天线射频前端频率合成器的设计与实现

文章介绍了智能天线射频前端的工作原理，并对射频前端的第一本振使用直接数字频率合成器（DDS）结合锁相环（PLL）的设计方案进行了讨论，分析了频率合成器的相噪特点和对寄生杂散电平的抑制措施，对智能天线射频部分的性能提高有一定参考意义。     

MC1648两种改进型VCO的压控特性和频率稳定性研究

本文对2种改进型VCO的压控特性和频率稳定性进行了分析，并给出实际测量结果。结果表明,两VCO在变容管允许承受的整个反偏压范围内，压控特性具有较好的线性，频稳度达10^-4-10^-5级，大大优于一般频率固定的LC振荡器，所以适合于性能要求较高的场合使用。     

A guide to a more effective World Wide Web presence

By focusing on the construct called consumer scepticism towards advertisements, this study identified four dimensions of scepticism towards advertising claims: scepticism about the believability (disbelief), credibility (mistrust), desirability (undesirable) and informational value (misinform) of advertising claims. Using an experimental design setting, this study found that the type of claim and claim extremity solicit differential responses from consumers on different dimensions of the scepticism construct. The differential responses are more pronounced for a product than a service advertisement. Implications arising from the findings are discussed and suggestions for future research advanced.     

有源滤波器设计中运算放大器的设计考虑

本文分析了对含有强高频信号分量、选出小低频信号的有源滤波器设计中，运算放大器的设计考虑。     

跳频信号的仿真模拟

本文介绍了跳频信号及跳频信号仿真模拟的原理，提出了具体的实施方案，分析了实施中存在的问题，并给出了相应的解决方法及仿真结果。     

Imitation,performance feedback,and outward foreign direct investments by emerging market firms

Extending the rational-based perspective of imitation, this study investigates how emerging market firms (EMFs) selectively imitate the frequency of outward foreign direct investment from two theoretically connected role models, i.e., large firms in an industry and board-interlocked firms. We posit that large and board-interlocked firms have differential values in endowing legitimacy and providing information because of their differences in terms of visibility to outsiders and value of acquired information. Using performance feedback as a moderator, we also indicate that EMFs performing above aspiration level decrease their imitation of large firms and board-interlocked firms. We also find that EMFs performing below aspiration level are more likely to imitate interlocked firms but less likely to imitate large firms.     

The risk spillover between China’s economic policy uncertainty and commodity markets: Evidence from frequency spillover and quantile connectedness approaches

Based on the frequency spillover method extended by Baruník and Křehlík (2018), we explore the risk spillover relationship between China’s economic policy uncertainty (CNEPU) and commodity futures in different frequency domains with daily settlement price data of 14 commodity futures in China. The results show that the risk spillover relationship between CNEPU and the commodity market mainly occurs in the short term. Quantile connectedness results show that economic policy uncertainty, which mainly plays the role of risk transmitter, is more closely related to the commodity market during the market boom and recession. Soybeans, soybean meal, and corn have shown high investment value in the process of market recovery, which is exposed to less risk spillover from policy uncertainty. Finally, the economic crisis with different characteristics will have specific impacts on asymmetric risk spillovers based on certain impact mechanisms.     

混频数据信息下的时变货币政策传导行为研究——基于混频TVP-FAVAR模型

现实经济环境中,货币政策操作受到金融市场及宏观经济信息的共同影响.如何基于混频大数据信息分析货币政策行为机制是需解决的现实问题.为此,本文提出一种混频时变参数因子增广向量自回归(MF-TVP-FAVAR)模型.基于宏观经济及金融市场等多维度混频数据信息的实证结果表明:首先,MF-TVP-FAVAR模型在宏观金融混频数据中提取的金融形势指数(FCI)能较好地表征宏观经济先行趋势,为货币政策的制定提供前瞻性信息.其次,混频TVP-FAVAR模型可以捕捉价格型和数量型货币政策传导的高频时变特征.与货币供应量相比,利率传导对产出的影响具有滞后性.利率传导随着利率市场化改革愈发畅通,而信贷传导机制因财政政策搭配等问题日渐受阻.再次,货币政策传导效果受到经济周期影响,无论产出效应还是价格效应,经济上行时期,货币政策传导机制都比经济衰退时期更加通畅.价格型和数量型传导机制在经济下行时的作用效果均会减弱,但数量型货币政策更易受到经济周期的影响.最后,货币政策对FCI的冲击响应具有时变性,说明金融市场信息冲击对我国货币政策调控具有结构性的动态影响.货币当局制定尤其是微调货币政策时应及时评估金融市场信息冲击的影响.