浅议我国商业银行中间业务的法律风险与防范对策

商业银行中间业务的开展对促进商业银行提高经营效益、降低银行风险，以及实现可持续发展等方面发挥了重要作用。然而现阶段我国商业银行发展中间业务时面临诸多法律风险，如立法上的缺陷、法律的滞后性等。因而，应积极制定有关法律、法规，适度监管，为商业银行中间业务的开展营造良好的法律环境。     

The multi-market analysis of a housing price transmission model

In this article, we examine dynamic relationships among housing prices from four first-tier cities in China from December 2000 to May 2010 and present an equilibrium model of housing price in multi-markets. By explicitly incorporating and modelling endogenous price series in competing housing markets, our empirical model is able to capture the existence of long-run equilibrium relationships and important short-run dynamics and price structures such as price leadership, price transmission lag and asymmetric price responses. Such multi-market analysis has generalized implications and can easily be applied to analyse the pricing dynamics among other real estate markets in the world. Our major contribution lies in two aspects. First, we employ an Error-Correction Model (ECM) with Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG) to study the price dynamics in the four largest and key housing markets in China. Second, we uncover a price transmission among these housing markets in China and provide an insightful understanding of price adjustment across markets. The revealed effective price transmission and high correlation among these different markets actually is not a good thing for a stable financial system and for the defence against price bubbles in the housing market.     

决算式住房反抵押贷款的产品设计与运行

快速和高度的人口老龄化给我国社会养老带来沉重的压力。以房养老是一种很好补充手段,但相关工作多年没有实质性进展。开发切合实际的金融产品品种,增强可操作性,才能突破尴尬局面。在充分权衡各方利益、考虑各种风险的基础上,提出了一种新的以房养老金融产品——决算式住房反抵押贷款,并对其年金计算、决算与结算等具体操作和运行进行了设计和探讨。     

中国城镇家庭住房来源与产权的省际差异——基于2000年人口普查资料的分析

根据中国2000年人口普查资料,分析了中国城镇家庭住房来源与产权的省际差异。住房来源与产权选择省际差异不明显;基本是沿海经济发达地区住房来源中商品房来源与产权选择中租赁商品房比重高。相关分析表明:地区市场化指数与市场型住房正相关,收入和产权关系不明显,国有经济比重与行政型住房正相关,城市化率与购商品房比正相关,价格和住房产权负相关。这说明了制度变迁和地区经济差异对住房选择的影响。     

基于地理加权回归的上海市房价空间分异及其影响因子研究

利用上海市外环以内2010年12月1014个小区的平均房价数据,通过构建地理加权回归模型,并与基于全局最小二乘法(OLS)进行比较,揭示上海小区房价的空间分异和不同影响因子的影响。研究发现,每增加或减少一个单位各影响因子对房价的影响大小依次为:建成时间,到CBD距离,绿化率,到公园距离,距地铁站距离,距超市距离和距学校距离。同时,地理加权回归分解成局部参数估计优于OLS提供的全局参数估计,它可以深刻的揭示出房价和空间影响因子之间复杂的关系,而且可视化的工具可以用地图的形式更详细的呈现出城市房价的整体景观,这些都是传统OLS无法比拟的。     

商业银行相对风险比较研究——来自中国14家商业银行2001-2004年的经验证据

为寻找中国商业银行整体运行中的薄弱环节,本文基于所构建的风险评价指标体系及风险比较模型,对中国14家主要商业银行2001～2004年的相对风险水平进行了对比分析.研究发现,依照相对风险程度的高低,14家商业银行可以划分为三个层次,第一层次,由华夏银行、招商银行、民生银行及中国银行所构成,安全性较高;而中国农业银行、中国工商银行和广东发展银行则隶属于风险最高的第三层次,是中国银行业安全的薄弱环节.由于不良贷款率、盈利能力和资产的流动性比率是影响商业银行风险状况的主要因素,因此从这三个方面入手,改善位于第三层次商业银行的风险状况,是提高中国银行业整体安全性的关键,应该成为当前银行业改革的重点.     

房地产正向财富效应形成的条件分析

房地产对居民消费的财富效应一直是关注的焦点。产生房地产财富正效应的条件为:城市居民二套住房拥有率要大于有潜在住房购买力的家庭占比率。我国应加大调控力度,降低房价,增加公共住房保障供给,大力发展适合中低收入阶层家庭的商品房项目。     

国有银行与股份制银行资产组合配置的差异研究

商业银行国有产权与银行业绩表现的关系,近来成为一个热点话题。但是,很少有文章讨论银行国有产权与银行谨慎经营行为的关系。本文依据银行资产组合配置比率指标,研究了中国国有商业银行与股份制银行在谨慎行为方面的差异。实证结论表明:股份制银行比国有银行经营更为谨慎;国有银行由于管理与经营机制的改革正变得越来越谨慎。     

The out-of-sample forecasting performance of nonlinear models of regional housing prices in the US

This article provides out-of-sample forecasts of linear and nonlinear models of US and four Census subregions’ housing prices. The forecasts include the traditional point forecasts, but also include interval and density forecasts, of the housing price distributions. The nonlinear smooth-transition autoregressive model outperforms the linear autoregressive model in point forecasts at longer horizons, but the linear autoregressive and nonlinear smooth-transition autoregressive models perform equally at short horizons. In addition, we generally do not find major differences in performance for the interval and density forecasts between the linear and nonlinear models. Finally, in a dynamic 25-step ex-ante and interval forecasting design, we, once again, do not find major differences between the linear and nonlinear models. In sum, we conclude that when forecasting regional housing prices in the United States, generally the additional costs associated with nonlinear forecasts outweigh the benefits for forecasts only a few months into the future.