中国大中城市商业地产开发环境评价——基于时序全局主成分分析

2007年爆发的金融危机不但改变了全球经济格局,也增加了中国房地产市场的不确定性因素。随着住宅开发的竞争越来越激烈,其利润率呈现走低趋势。越来越多的房地产开发商从住宅地产转向商业地产领域,以期获得更加丰厚的回报。选取中国35个大中城市的42个变量共计近6000个数据,利用时序全局主成分分析法对后金融危机时期的这些城市商业地产开发环境进行了系统研究,建立了比较科学的评价指标体系。     

政府保障房供求补贴的不同效果

解决中低收入人群的基本住房问题是实现社会公平的基本国策之一。为了有效地实施保障性安居工程,通过构建数学模型研究在财政补贴率相同的条件下,住房消费补贴与住房供给补贴的成交价格、成交量与社会福利情况,可以发现这两者之间存在较大的差别,前者的成交价格、成交量和社会福利都高于后者,但前者比后者的财政补贴额更多。如果提高财政补贴率,那么前者成交价格会不断提高,而后者成交价格会不断降低,成交量都会呈现扩大趋势。成交价格、成交量和社会福利不但与财政补贴率及其补贴方式有关,也与住房的需求弹性和供给弹性有关。研究结论的政策意义在于,如果在政府财力有限、住房价格上涨压力较大的条件下,应当采用住房供给补贴;如果在政府财力相对宽松、住房价格上涨压力相对较小、依靠住房拉动经济增长的压力较大的条件下,则应当采用住房消费补贴,同时它还能实现公平与效率兼顾的目的。无论是采用住房消费补贴还是住房供给补贴,都应当增大供给弹性,减小需求弹性。     

轨道交通对城市住房发展的影响综述

从轨道交通对城市住房价格和空间分布、居住用地开发强度的影响及影响的时效性等各方面综述了国内外研究进展,得出以下结论:除个别区域和时段外,轨道交通将引起沿线住房价格上涨,位于郊区、开发成熟度低的地区和中等价值的住房价格上涨最为明显;轨道交通将引起沿线居住用地开发强度的提高,提高的幅度与站点的功能关系密切;轨道交通吸引住房需求向轨道线路和站点附近集聚,并使市中心的居住需求向郊区转移,加快郊区化进程,同时改变中心区住房的类型结构,最终改变城市的空间结构;轨道交通对住房价格的影响具有时效性,影响程度随规划、施工、运营等不同时期而不同。     

欧美城市贫困集中研究述评及对我国的启示

从城市地理学、城市规划学和城市社会学的视角,综合评述了欧美国家城市贫困集中的现象,分析了贫困集中所造成的居民收入和就业机会下降、社会隔离及歧视加剧、社会治安环境恶劣、孩子遭受不良影响和公共配套设施短缺等问题,探究了市场、政府、特殊人文因素和产业结构转型等因素对贫困集中的影响。欧美城市经验为我国城市发展提供了有价值的启示,为了减少贫困集中以及由此引发的社会问题,政府应主动进行调控,缩小居民过大的收入差距,避免经济适用房和廉租房住区的集中布局,建设多样化混合社区,以及使公共住房政策由供给导向向需求导向转变。     

How do services of owner-occupied housing affect income inequality and redistribution?

This paper aims at analyzing the redistributive impact that the inclusion of the imputed rental market value of owner-occupied housing would have if used for quantifying the ability to pay rather than imputation based on cadastral values. We consider the Spanish personal income tax as reference, due to the differential treatment that it provides for imputed income from owner-occupied housing, together with the exceptionally high percentages of home ownership in Spain. By means of micro-simulation we explore the consequences of alternative possibilities for dealing with implicit income from owner-occupied housing.     

Diagnosing housing fever with an econometric thermometer

Housing fever is a popular term to describe an overheated housing market or housing price bubble. Like other financial asset bubbles, housing fever can inflict harm on the real economy, as indeed the U.S. housing bubble did in the period following 2006 leading up to the general financial crisis and great recession. One contribution that econometricians can make to minimize the harm created by a housing bubble is to provide a quantitative “thermometer” for diagnosing ongoing housing fever. Early diagnosis can enable prompt and effective policy action that reduces long-term damage to the real economy. This paper provides a selective review of the relevant literature on econometric methods for identifying housing bubbles together with some new methods of research and an empirical application. We first present a technical definition of a housing bubble that facilitates empirical work and discuss significant difficulties encountered in practical work and the solutions that have been proposed in the past literature. A major challenge in all econometric identification procedures is to assess prices in relation to fundamentals, which requires measurement of fundamentals. One solution to address this challenge is to estimate the fundamental component from an underlying structural relationship involving measurable variables. A second aim of the paper is to improve the estimation accuracy of fundamentals by means of an easy-to-implement reduced-form approach. Since many of the relevant variables that determine fundamentals are nonstationary and interdependent we use the endogenous instrumental variable based method (IVX) to estimate the reduced-form model to reduce the finite sample bias which arises from highly persistent regressors and endogeneity. The recursive evolving test proposed by Phillips, Shi, and Yu (PSY) is applied to the estimated nonfundamental component for the identification of speculative bubbles. The new bubble test developed here is referred to as PSY-IVX. An empirical application to the eight Australian capital city housing markets over the period 1999–2017 shows that bubble testing results are sensitive to different ways of controlling for fundamentals and highlights the importance of accurate estimation of these housing market fundamentals.     

Forecasting electricity prices with expert,linear, and nonlinear models

This paper compares several models for forecasting regional hourly day-ahead electricity prices, while accounting for fundamental drivers. Forecasts of demand, in-feed from renewable energy sources, fossil fuel prices, and physical flows are all included in linear and nonlinear specifications, ranging in the class of ARFIMA-GARCH models—hence including parsimonious autoregressive specifications (known as expert-type models). The results support the adoption of a simple structure that is able to adapt to market conditions. Indeed, we include forecasted demand, wind and solar power, actual generation from hydro, biomass, and waste, weighted imports, and traditional fossil fuels. The inclusion of these exogenous regressors, in both the conditional mean and variance equations, outperforms in point and, especially, in density forecasting when the superior set of models is considered. Indeed, using the model confidence set and considering northern Italian prices, predictions indicate the strong predictive power of regressors, in particular in an expert model augmented for GARCH-type time-varying volatility. Finally, we find that using professional and more timely predictions of consumption and renewable energy sources improves the forecast accuracy of electricity prices more than using predictions publicly available to researchers.     

基于主成分分析法对保障房的商业设施配置研究——以武汉市为例

保障房性住房政策极大改善了中低收入阶层住房难问题,其商业设施配置对保障对象生活有重要影响。为了研究武汉市保障性住房商业设施配置,本文选择武汉市五处保障房商业设施,调查了影响保障对象生活的商业设施业种,通过主成分分析法,将保障房商业设施配置中的多类业种综合成为三个主成分。并提出了在保障性住房商业设施规划及管理中的一些建议,这将为保障房公共设施配置提供更具合理性和科学性的决策依据。     

房建工程中屋面渗漏水防治技术

西安烟草公司办公楼屋面多处渗水,处理方案是变上人屋面为不上人屋面,在已铺地砖屋面上再做了一层4mm厚sbs防水层,才保证屋面不再渗水。为避免再出现类似问题,本文从中学习并总结了渗漏的原因分析及预防措施。     

试论商业银行成本核算及其管理系统变革

现代商业银行经营竞争日趋激烈,产品品种层出不穷,盈利模式日新月异,迫切需要精确的成本信息来确定产品的真实盈利情况.然而,我国商业银行大都还采用传统的成本核算方法,核算出的银行产品成本是不完全的.为给银行管理决策提供更完全的相关信息,我国商业银行应使用作业成本法.就我国商业银行作业成本法的应用及须注意的问题作初浅探讨,希望对商业银行应用作业成本法有一定的参考.