Fisher Ideal Indexes in the National Income and Product Accounts

The mastery of the spreadsheet technique has become almost universal in economics departments. The authors explain, step-by-step, how the spreadsheet can be used as an instructional aid to teach basic microeconomic concepts.     

云南乌蒙山片区所属县旅游扶贫效应分析

在分析云南乌蒙山片区所属县贫困及旅游发展现状的基础上,运用灰色关联分析和问卷调查法分析了旅游业对区域经济和当地社区居民的效应。结果表明:旅游业对区域经济增长贡献大,但其与区域GDP及三次产业关联度低,存在较严重的旅游漏损;当地社区居民参与旅游的意愿非常高,但参与比例非常低;旅游发展具有增加收入、改善交通条件及环境卫生、扩大与外地人交流、提高环境保护意识等方面的正面效应,但是也存在房地产和物价上涨、仅有少数人受益、传统文化受到冲击等方面的负面效应。要实施旅游扶贫政府主导战略,加强旅游产业与其他产业的整合,加快旅游产业链本地化,增强贫困人口参与能力。     

Separating what we eat from where: Measuring the effect of food away from home on diet quality

Many argue that food away from home (FAFH) is a contributing factor to the obesity epidemic, showing that body mass index and consumption of FAFH are positively correlated. However, correlation analyses using a simple regression approach, such as the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), do not prove that FAFH causes weight gain. We use a first-difference estimator to establish a causal relationship between FAFH and dietary intakes. Using dietary recall data from the 2003–2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the 1994–1996 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals, we find that FAFH does indeed increase caloric intake and reduce diet quality, but that the effect is smaller than if estimated using OLS. Thus, models based on associations are likely biased upward, as much as 25% by our estimates.     

Industry risk transmission channels and the spillover effects of specific determinants in China’s stock market: A spatial econometrics approach

This paper uses a spatial econometrics approach to study the industry risks in China’s stock market. We comprehensively consider the real linkage and information risk transmission channels and analyze the risk spillovers of specific determinants. Our empirical results show the following: 1) The real linkage channel and information channel are both effective transmission channels for driving spillover effects, and the information channel is of the utmost importance. 2) The spillover effects of specific determinants exist and are persistent. The superposition of spillover effects may lead to extreme risk. 3) The transmission channels and spillover effects are asymmetric in different regimes.     

Testing for Vertical Fiscal Externalities

The purpose of this paper is to design a test of whether the vertical external effects associated with tax base sharing among local and regional governments have become internalized via the intergovernmental transfer system. Such tests are important in the sense that the income tax rates chosen by different levels of government will generally be correlated, even if the resource allocation is optimal from society's point of view. By using panel data for the Swedish local and regional public sectors, the results imply that an increase in the regional income tax rate induces the municipalities in the region to decrease their income tax rates. In addition, we are able to reject the null hypothesis that the vertical external effects have become internalized.     

Estimating the link between trade uncertainty,pandemic uncertainty and food price stability in Togo: New evidence for an asymmetric analysis

Globally, the outbreak of COVID-19 and the associated containment measures adopted by governments are causing disruptions that sow uncertainty in several sectors of the economy. In this study, we explore the asymmetric impact of pandemic uncertainty and global trade policy on food prices in Togo. The study uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag (NARDL) framework and causality tests for the period 2000 M1–2021 M5. The results show that the different types of uncertainty affect food price stability in the short and long run, but the shock is more pronounced in the case of pandemic uncertainty, as they are sudden and disrupt food price stability. The main findings remain significant when we use various alternative methods and estimation techniques. However, our results suggest that the Togolese food market is facing pandemic uncertainty and trade policy, which should lead policymakers and stakeholders to take corrective measures to control losses.     

The Coverage Properties of Confidence Regions After Model Selection

It is very common in applied frequentist (classical) statistics to carry out a preliminary statistical (i.e. data-based) model selection by, for example, using preliminary hypothesis tests or minimizing AIC. This is usually followed by the inference of interest, using the same data, based on the assumption that the selected model had been given to us  a priori . This assumption is false and it can lead to an inaccurate and misleading inference. We consider the important case that the inference of interest is a confidence region. We review the literature that shows that the resulting confidence regions typically have very poor coverage properties. We also briefly review the closely related literature that describes the coverage properties of prediction intervals after preliminary statistical model selection. A possible motivation for preliminary statistical model selection is a wish to utilize uncertain prior information in the inference of interest. We review the literature in which the aim is to utilize uncertain prior information directly in the construction of confidence regions, without requiring the intermediate step of a preliminary statistical model selection. We also point out this aim as a future direction for research.     

Teacher qualifications and student achievement in urban elementary schools

Teacher quality is a key element of student academic success, but few specific teacher characteristics influence classroom outcomes. This research examines whether teacher licensure test scores and other teacher attributes affect elementary student achievement. The results are based on longitudinal student-level data from Los Angeles. California requires three types of teacher licensure tests as part of the teacher certification process; a general knowledge test, a subject area test (single subject for secondary teachers and multiple subject for elementary teachers), and a reading pedagogy test for elementary school teachers. The student achievement analysis uses a value-added approach that adjusts for both student and teacher fixed effects. The results show large differences in teacher quality across the school district, but measured teacher characteristics explain little of the difference. Teacher licensure test scores are unrelated to teacher success in the classroom. Similarly, student achievement is unaffected by whether classroom teachers have advanced degrees. Student achievement increases with teacher experience, but the linkage is weak and largely reflects poor outcomes for teachers during their first year or two in the classroom.     

垄断行业的效率、改革与规制重构——转型经济中的经验与教训研讨会观点综述

行政垄断的判定与垄断程度的测度需要一个完善的标准。实证表明,行政垄断造成了巨大的经济效率损失,而消除行政垄断只能分步骤有序进行。竞争政策的设计应结合本国国情,竞争政策的目标也应该是多元的,同时需要构建完善的反垄断体系。垄断行业的改革应根据行业自身特点与市场空间来确定其市场化的程度和规制的程度,需要系统设计改革时序,重构并建立科学的规制体系。     

The impact of country risk ratings on U.S. firms in large cross-border acquisitions

This study investigates the impact of country risk ratings on the wealth gains to large U.S. bidders involved in cross-border acquisitions. The findings indicate that U.S. bidders experience positive wealth gains during the merger announcements, though this is concentrated in transactions involving European targets. There are also differences in wealth gains to bidders with respect to industry classification and location of foreign targets. The country risk factors including economic, political, and financial risk ratings all play a significant role in explaining the wealth gains to bidders. Furthermore, the wealth gains are higher for the firms with acquisitions in developed countries and are significantly related to GNP growth rate.