The mediating role of export-oriented Japanese foreign direct investment in China

Since the early 1990s, China has become the largest destination of Japanese foreign direct investment （FDI）. Observing this trend, the authors analyzed whether Japanese FDI did promote exports from China to the rest of the world, and more importantly, whether this is a strategy adopted by Japanese multinationals to penetrate not only the Chinese market but also the global market. This analysis takes into account not only the direct effects of FDI on exports, but also the indirect effects, by examining the mediating role of export oriented Japanese FDI in China from 1998 to 2007 through panel analysis. The study contributes to the conceptual framework of indirect relationship among the macroeconomic variables, FDI and exports provides some insights into the strategy of export oriented Japanese FDI in creating a win-win platform for Japan and China.     

Convenient estimators for the panel probit model: Further results

Bertschek and Lechner (1998) propose several variants of a GMM estimator based on the period specific regression functions for the panel probit model. The analysis is motivated by the complexity of maximum likelihood estimation and the possibly excessive amount of time involved in maximum simulated likelihood estimation. But, for applications of the size considered in their study, full likelihood estimation is actually straightforward, and resort to GMM estimation for convenience is unnecessary. In this note, we reconsider maximum likelihood based estimation of their panel probit model then examine some extensions which can exploit the heterogeneity contained in their panel data set. Empirical results are obtained using the data set employed in the earlier study. Helpful comments and suggestions by Irene Bertschek and Michael Lechner are gratefully acknowledged. This paper has also benefited from comments by two anonymous referees and from seminar participants at the Center for Health Economics at the University of York. Any remaining errors are the responsibility of the author.     

Should we worry about the decline of the public corporation? A brief survey of the economics and external effects of the stock market

In recent years, the number of listed companies has been declining in many countries across the world. This paper provides a selective survey of the literature on the real economic effects of the stock market to assess the potential effects of this decline and determine whether it is likely to continue. The leading economic role of the stock market’s primary market, in which firms raise capital by issuing new shares, is to help growing firms secure financing. We discuss providing and certifying information, coordinating investors, and easing the redeployment of capital as the means through which capital allocation can be efficiently achieved. The main economic roles of the stock market’s secondary market, the trade in existing shares, is to provide liquidity to shareholders, to aid in price discovery and to provide diversification opportunities. Positive external effects from an active stock market may arise for consumers, labor and private firms due to increased corporate investment, more socially responsible business strategies and a more positive business climate. Negative external effects on capital allocation and productivity can arise from short-termism, market mispricing, and increased cross-ownership. Local stock markets can spur innovation and foreign direct investment (FDI) and reduce the risk of early cross-border acquisitions. Given the myriad of useful economic functions the stock market performs, a future entirely absent of public companies is difficult to imagine and the decline is therefore likely at some point to come to an end. Whether we need to worry about the decline depends on the relative importance of the positive and negative external effects, a topic we feel warrants more research.     

中国制造企业服务化转型的同群效应研究

本文基于 2007-2021 年中国A股制造业上市公司样本数据,研究我国制造企业服务化转型同群效应的存在性、产生机制及其影响因素问题.结果表明,企业服务化转型存在地区同群效应,结论经过一系列稳健性检验后仍然成立.学习模仿是企业服务化转型同群效应的产生机制,市场竞争程度是影响服务化转型同群效应的重要因素.进一步研究发现,企业服务化转型的同群效应存在异质性,固定资产比重低或客户集中程度高的企业,开展服务化转型的同群效应更显著.     

货币政策的产业效应分析——基于中国货币政策的实证研究

本文从基于要素密集度不同的两部门例子出发，说明了由于行业自身的异质性，每个行业对同一货币政策冲击的反应各异。接着利用E—G两步法、ADL模型和基于VAR模型的脉冲响应函数分析1995年后中国六个行业对货币政策冲击的反应。结果显示第一、二产业、房地产业对利率政策冲击反应明显，第三产业、餐饮业和批发贸易零售业反应较小。在此基础上简单分析了造成行业反应不同的原因并给出相关的政策建议。     

Unlocking the transformative potential of branchless banking in Indonesia

Branchless banking has the potential to significantly enhance financial inclusion among Indonesia’s large and geographically disparate unbanked population and to connect Indonesia’s micro, small and medium enterprises to the global economy. Why has the branchless-banking revolution not yet materialised? Constrained by regulation, deployments have failed to attract a critical mass of users. Indonesia’s fragmented telecommunications sector has made it difficult for providers to emulate the success stories in other countries, in which dominant providers are competing for the market with a proprietary platform. In Indonesia, it is likely that a considerable degree of interoperability will be required for providers to unleash network effects and attract users. Indonesia’s providers are experimenting in this space. Recognising branchless banking’s potential to accelerate financial inclusion, Bank Indonesia appears committed to improving the regulatory framework. This article identifies the components of an enabling regulatory environment. Success in Indonesia would provide a model for a more widespread uptake of transformative branchless banking.     

Segmentation and time-of-day patterns in foreign exchange markets

This paper sheds light on a puzzling pattern in spot foreign exchange markets: domestic currencies appreciate (depreciate) systematically during foreign (domestic) working hours. This phenomenon spans many years and several exchange rates, and overrides calendar effects. We argue that it is mainly due to liquidity and inventory patterns that emerge from the combination of two factors: domestic agents tend to be net buyers of foreign currency and to trade mostly in their country’s working hours. The prevalence of domestic (foreign) traders demanding the counterpart currency during domestic (foreign) working hours implies sell-price (buy-price) pressure on the domestic currency during domestic (foreign) working hours.     

The Forgotten Risk: Financial Incentives

Summary  The number of risks that are taken into account by risk managers has grown over the years, but they still have a blind spot for the danger that remuneration schemes and financial incentives can lead to more risk taking. Such an effect constitutes a regime change, making standard statistical analyses of previous data obsolete. Common remuneration contracts for hedge fund managers and bank traders provoke risk taking and lead to volatile results. The incentive structure of rating agencies sheds doubts on the quality of their judgment. Risk managers should address the behavioral effects of incentive schemes, both inside and outside their firm. Incentive schemes should be corrected in such a way that only long-term results pay off. CEO, ABN-AMRO Bank and former Minister of Finance. These comments were prepared for the occasion of the Jelle Zijlstra Lecture by Martin Hellwig at the VU University, Amsterdam, May 27, 2008, when Gerrit Zalm was CFO of DSB Bank.