NONPARAMETRIC AND SEMIPARAMETRIC PANEL DATA MODELS: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

In this paper, we provide an intensive review of the recent developments for semiparametric and fully nonparametric panel data models that are linearly separable in the innovation and the individual-specific term. We analyze these developments under two alternative model specifications: fixed and random effects panel data models. More precisely, in the random effects setting, we focus our attention in the analysis of some efficiency issues that have to do with the so-called working independence condition. This assumption is introduced when estimating the asymptotic variance–covariance matrix of nonparametric estimators. In the fixed effects setting, to cope with the so-called incidental parameters problem, we consider two different estimation approaches: profiling techniques and differencing methods. Furthermore, we are also interested in the endogeneity problem and how instrumental variables are used in this context. In addition, for practitioners, we also show different ways of avoiding the so-called curse of dimensionality problem in pure nonparametric models. In this way, semiparametric and additive models appear as a solution when the number of explanatory variables is large.     

A Bayesian approach to excess volatility,short-term underreaction and long-term overreaction during financial crises

In this paper, we introduce a new Bayesian approach to explain some market anomalies during financial crises and subsequent recovery. We assume that the earnings shock of an asset follows a random walk model with and without drift to incorporate the impact of financial crises. We further assume the earning shock follows an exponential family distribution to accommodate symmetric as well as asymmetric information. By using this model setting, we develop some properties on the expected earnings shock and its volatility, and establish properties of investor behavior on the stock price and its volatility during financial crises and the subsequent recovery. Thereafter, we develop properties to explain excess volatility, short-term underreaction, long-term overreaction, and their magnitude effects during financial crises and the subsequent recovery. We also explain why behavioral finance theory could be used to explain many of the asset pricing anomalies, but traditional asset pricing models cannot achieve this aim.     

The Role of Financial Ratios in the Variance of Stock Trading Volume in Emerging Stock Markets

The study used quarterly panel data of 6 years from 2010 to 2015 of all companies listed on both Vietnamese stock markets including the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange and Ha Noi Stock Exchange, and on three leading industries consisting of insurance-banking, foodstuff, and real estate to explore the relationship among four key financial ratios and stock trading volume. Two models, fixed effects model (FEM) and random effects model (REM), with robust standard errors, were applied for this study. The key findings showed that earnings before tax on sales, debt on owner’s equity, and owner’s equity on total assets significantly influenced trading volume.     

国库现金转存商业银行的货币效应分析及管理建议

近年来,我国国库现金余额因国家财力增长及预算收支进度不均衡等因素出现大幅上升,闲置国库现金运用对货币供应的影响日益显著。该文根据商业银行资产运用特点,通过模型构建简单分析了国库现金转存商业银行的年度货币效应,以揭示其货币效应的影响因素,并从建立健全法规规章、提高国库收支预测水平等方面,提出进一步完善国库现金业务管理的相关建议。     

Same as it ever was? Europe's national borders and the market for corporate control

National borders continue to be strong barriers for mergers and acquisitions in Europe. Using regional data, we construct a gravity model and find that the restraining impact of national borders decreased by more than 17 percent between 1991 and 2007. However, no significant change has occurred since the mid-1990s (i.e., four years before the introduction of the euro). In comparison, we run a corresponding analysis in the United States using the 10 federal regions as country equivalents. The resulting ‘quasi-border’ effect in the United States is weaker than that in the European Union. Yet its decline by 43 percent is much stronger in the same period. We conclude that European integration policy has had little effect on fostering M&A cross-border transactions.     

Time heals many wounds – explaining the immediate and delayed effects of message sidedness

This study investigates the immediate and delayed effects of advertising messages including both positive and negative information. A two-sided message has a negative effect on message attitudes due to two mediating variables with trade-off effects: valence and balance. These two variables are also responsible for the alignment of the effect of sidedness on message attitudes and purchase intentions over time: the negative effects of two-sided messages are neutralized over time because negative information is reevaluated, improving the valence of the message. The results explain the negative effects of message sidedness that have been found in prior research and they show that a two-sided message in advertising is not necessarily inferior to a one-sided message despite unfavorable short-term effects.     

FIRE SALES FORENSICS: MEASURING ENDOGENOUS RISK

We propose a tractable framework for quantifying the impact of loss‐triggered fire sales on portfolio risk, in a multi‐asset setting. We derive analytical expressions for the impact of fire sales on the realized volatility and correlations of asset returns in a fire sales scenario and show that our results provide a quantitative explanation for the spikes in volatility and correlations observed during such deleveraging episodes. These results are then used to develop an econometric framework for the forensic analysis of fire sales episodes, using observations of market prices. We give conditions for the identifiability of model parameters from time series of asset prices, propose a statistical test for the presence of fire sales, and an estimator for the magnitude of fire sales in each asset class. Pathwise consistency and large sample properties of the estimator are studied in the high‐frequency asymptotic regime. We illustrate our methodology by applying it to the forensic analysis of two recent deleveraging episodes: the Quant Crash of August 2007 and the Great Deleveraging following the default of Lehman Brothers in Fall 2008.     

Price promotion with reference price effects in supply chain

We consider the price promotion in a supply chain comprising one manufacturer and one retailer, who take into account the reference price effects of consumers. The problem is analyzed as a manufacturer-lead Stackelberg game. The results indicate that reference price effects could mitigate “double marginalization” effects, and improve the channel efficiency. We also show that the optimal price promotion benefits the manufacturer, retailer and consumers in consumer promotion model. Furthermore, we provide the conditions under which the retailer has an interest in offering price promotion to consumers. Finally, we employ numerical analysis to demonstrate more managerial insights.     

Sentiment,mood and outbound tourism demand

We investigate spillover effects from sentiment and mood shocks on US outbound tourism demand from 1996 until 2013. We use the Index of Consumer Sentiment and Economic Policy Uncertainty Index as proxies for sentiment and the S&P500 as a proxy for mood. We find a moderate to high interrelationship among sentiment, mood and outbound tourism demand. More importantly, sentiment and mood indicators are net transmitters of spillover shocks to outbound tourism demand. The magnitude of spillover effects sourced by sentiment and mood is time-varying and depends on certain socio-economic and environmental events. Our results have important implications for policymakers and travel agents in their efforts to predict tourism arrivals from key origin countries and to plan their tourism strategy.     

Mobile technology & resident attitude research

This research note highlights the novelty of integrating location-based services (LBS) available on Smart Phones and Tablets into traditional resident attitude survey methodologies such as door-to-door data collection. It specifically reviews how the LBS technology available on mobile devices can be used to systematically capture GPS coordinates of one's residence and integrate this captured spatial information into software such as ArcGIS and SPSS for further analysis. By having GPS coordinates associated with respondents' answers, researchers have an additional layer of information available for conducting a multitude of tests previously not possible with subjective categorical spatial data. Two research applications using the spatial location of residences are provided as examples of how LBS available on mobile devices can be integrated within resident attitude projects. The use of LBS technology can help researchers better understand how the distance residents live from major tourist attractions influences their attitudes towards tourism.