谈电气制动技术在岩滩电厂发电机组上的应用

针对岩滩电厂混流式水轮发电机组机械制动存在的安全隐患,岩滩电厂对水轮发电机组的制动方式进行了改造,采用国内比较成熟的电气制动技术。文章就该电厂机械制动存在的不足及引用电气制动系统的必要性进行了阐述,并对电气制动系统的可靠性设计、制动方式设计、电气制动主接线系统方案的选择、电制动控制系统方案设计等方面的内容作了阐述。     

集成化物流资源整合的协同框架分析

本文以系统理论、协同理论为理论依据,采用粗糙集属性简约算法筛选出集成化物流资源系统的序参量——核心竞争力和协同度,在此基础上构建了集成化物流资源系统自组织模型。通过求解分析自组织模型,概念性地描述了集成化物流资源整合的协同过程,并揭示了集成化物流资源整合协同演化的本质,为指导集成化物流资源整合提供了理论依据。     

基于粗糙集的团购网站销售额影响因素分析

运用粗糙集算法,对所搜集的不确定甚至不完整的有关团购网站的信息进行推理,结论是：相对平均原价和团购种类,团购活动期数、购买人次、平均折扣率和热门城市数量对团购网站销售额的影响更重要;团购活动期数和购买人次越多,销售额越高;但平均折扣率和热门城市数量的多少对团购网站销售额的影响不大。可见,相对于价格,诚信在团购网站发展中起到更重要的决定作用;团购网站应通过团购导航网吸引更多的顾客,并实施差异化发展策略,进而以优质服务提高顾客的忠诚度。     

The differences in hotel selection among various types of travellers: A comparative analysis with a useful bounded rationality behavioural decision support model

This study aims to investigate the hotel selection differences among different types of travellers through online hotel reviews. Specifically, the study performs a detailed examination of the differences in hotel key factors, criterion importance and selection results among five types of travellers, namely, business, couples, families, friends and solo. Using a sample of 194,885 online reviews on TripAdvisor.com, this study identifies the hotel key factors and criterion importance by employing the term frequency-inverse document frequency algorithm and Word2Vec algorithm. Additionally, a bounded rationality behavioural decision support model with picture fuzzy information is proposed to address hotel selection problems for different traveller types. Our results suggest that different types of travellers present differences in hotel key factors, criterion importance and selection results. However, families and friends have similar hotel selection results. This study can serve as a reference for hotel managers in understanding traveller preferences and for tourism website optimisation.     

Forecasting value at risk and expected shortfall with mixed data sampling

I propose applying the Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) framework to forecast Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected shortfall (ES). The new methods exploit the serial dependence on short-horizon returns to directly forecast the tail dynamics of the desired horizon. I perform a comprehensive comparison of out-of-sample VaR and ES forecasts with established models for a wide range of financial assets and backtests. The MIDAS-based models significantly outperform traditional GARCH-based forecasts and alternative conditional quantile specifications, especially in terms of multi-day forecast horizons. My analysis advocates models that feature asymmetric conditional quantiles and the use of the Asymmetric Laplace density to jointly estimate VaR and ES.     

A supplier evaluation model based on customer demand in blockchain tracing anti-counterfeiting platform project management

This study assesses supplier selection at the beginning of project management to establish an evaluation system corresponding to blockchain tracing anti-counterfeiting platforms (BTAP). First, this paper determines 20 evaluation criteria from the four dimensions of platform overview, core technology, application support, and operations management. On this basis, multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) based on customer needs is proposed, which consists of three main steps. First, quality function deployment (QFD) and the best and worst method (BWM) are used to evaluate the four dimensions of the BTAP and specific evaluation criteria from the perspective of customers to obtain the criteria weight. Then, this method uses the extended Vlse Kriterjumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) approach to sort the alternatives. Finally, the improved decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method is used to analyse the relationships between the 20 criteria in the four dimensions. The feasibility and effectiveness of this method are verified by an example. According to the sensitivity analysis and comparative analysis, the results show that this method can evaluate blockchain anti-counterfeiting enterprises. The main conclusions are as follows: the core technology is the most important factor influencing the choice of a BTAP project, and the role of application support in evaluation cannot be ignored.     

基于可变模糊方法的乡村土地旅游化流转风险评价的集对分析

为解决乡村土地旅游化流转风险评价问题,构建了包含粮食安全受威胁程度、收益分配不公平程度、土地利用结构失衡程度、乡村生态破坏程度以及乡村特色消失程度的乡村土地旅游化流转风险评价指标体系,提出乡村土地旅游化流转风险评价的集对分析—可变模糊模型与方法。首先,基于集对模糊联系度构造可变模糊集理论的相对差异度,进而建立集对分析—可变模糊综合评价模型;然后,结合风险分级特征值运用二元语义方法确定乡村土地旅游化流转风险级别;最后,以泉州市乡村旅游目的地为例进行了实例计算。研究结果表明,所建立的集对分析—可变模糊评价模型与方法不但能够定量辨别乡村旅游地土地旅游化流转的风险等级,而且能够区分同一风险等级下的不同风险大小。     

西方社会土地产权的构成、演化与启示

西方社会将土地产权分为权能和客体两方面,并进行科学精准地界定、重组,以实现土地产权在政府管理层面与个人使用层面的均衡分配。人工不透水层作为承载社会经济发展用地类型的覆被类型,随着西方社会生态保护意识的增强而处于规划和管制当中,具体反映在土地产权主体占有地块内的建筑密度、容积率等控制指标。而土地用途分类和土地覆被分类作为土地产权的实体化反映,则构成以经济价值为维度的土地发展权的尺度性特征,实现了政府宏观管理与个体微观利用的兼容性。对我国土地产权管理的建议：土地管理应由强调土地所有制向构建土地利用管制制度转变;科学界定土地产权,转变政府职能,推动我国土地管理向民生化、微观化、精准化方向发展。     

基于ANP-PP-SPA的区域洪灾风险评价模型研究

针对现有洪灾风险评价模型的缺陷与不足,从致灾因子、孕灾因子、承灾因子和减灾因子4个方面,通过对14项评价指标的分析与计算,构建洪灾风险评价体系。洪灾风险评价体系以网络层次分析法(ANP)求解主观权重,投影寻踪法(PP)求解客观权重,主客观综合权重与集对分析理论(SPA)耦合,构建基于ANP-PP-SPA的洪灾风险评价模型。以广东省英德市为例,验证洪灾风险评价模型的适用性。计算结果表明,英德市2016年的洪灾风险属于中等级别,符合英德市2016年的实际情况。洪灾风险评价模型不仅综合考虑了评价指标间的相互关系,还较好地体现了洪灾风险的模糊性和随机性,能够为区域洪灾风险决策和洪水管理提供科学依据。     

中国上市公司股权分置改革中的利益分配研究

本文通过模型推导和实证分析探讨非流通股东和流通股东在股权分置改革中的利益分配状况,结果发现,在完成股改的公司中,大部分样本公司的两类股东在股改中获得增量收益、实现“双赢”;在流通股东和非流通股东均获得增量收益的公司中,股改的增量收益未能在两类股东间均分;非流通股比重、公司业绩、公司成长性、非流通股转成流通股份额是影响上市公司股改实际对价水平的重要因素,而流通性溢价、流通股东认可程度和非流通股转成流通股期限等因素未能在实际对价水平的确定上起到关键性作用。