Processing consistency in non-Bayesian inference

We propose a coherent inference model that is obtained by distorting the prior density in Bayes’ rule and replacing the likelihood with a so-called pseudo-likelihood. This model includes the existing non-Bayesian inference models as special cases and implies new models of base-rate neglect and conservatism. We prove a sufficient and necessary condition under which the coherent inference model is processing consistent, i.e., implies the same posterior density however the samples are grouped and processed retrospectively. We further show that processing consistency does not imply Bayes’ rule by proving a sufficient and necessary condition under which the coherent inference model can be obtained by applying Bayes’ rule to a false stochastic model.     

Intertemporal choice with different short-term and long-term discount factors

This paper proposes a new axiomatic model of intertemporal choice that allows for dynamic inconsistency. We weaken the classical assumption of stationarity into two related axioms: stationarity in the short-term and stationarity in the long-term. We obtain a model with two independent discount factors, which is flexible enough to capture different time preferences, including a greater impatience for more immediate outcomes (when a long-term discount factor exceeds a compounded short-term discount factor). Our proposed model can accommodate some experimental results that cannot be rationalized by other existing models of dynamic inconsistency (such as quasi-hyperbolic discounting and generalized hyperbolic discounting).     

Equal or equitable pay? Individual differences in pay fairness perceptions

This study examined how social comparison (i.e., comparing one's pay to similar others' pay) and deserved comparison (i.e., comparing one's pay to one's deserved pay) affect pay fairness perceptions, and the individual differences in the comparison processes. Results based on a field study with a sample of 167 employees showed pay fairness was low when employees received lower pay than a similar other (or what they deserved), increased as their pay exceeded that of a similar other (or deserved pay) to some extent, and then decreased when overpayment was considerable. Second, pay fairness increased as one's actual and similar others' pay levels both increased while pay fairness remained the same as one's actual and the deserved pay levels both increased. In addition, the “threshold” that people start to perceive overpayment as less fair occurred more quickly for those with higher preference for consistency in social comparison and for those with higher preference for the merit principle in deserved comparison. We also conducted experiments, and the results generally replicated the findings in the field study. These findings offer theoretical implications regarding organizational justice, as well as practical implications for designing and executing a compensation system.     

Further insights on endogenous money and the liquidity preference theory of interest

Abstract

We present a simple stock-flow consistent (SFC) model to discuss some recent claims made by Angel Asensio in a paper published in this journal regarding the relationship between endogenous money theory and the liquidity preference theory of the rate of interest. We incorporate Asensio’s assumptions as far as possible and use simulation experiments to investigate his arguments regarding the presence of a crowding-out effect, the relationship between interest rates and credit demand, and the ability of the central bank to steer interest rates through varying the stock of money. We show that in a fully-specified SFC model, some of Asensio’s conclusions are not generally valid (most importantly, the presence of a crowding-out effect is ambiguous), and that in any case, his use of a non-SFC framework leads him to leave aside important mechanisms which can contribute to a better understanding of the behavior of interest rates. More generally, this paper once more demonstrates the utility of the SFC approach in research on monetary economics.     

欧债危机背景下中国对欧盟直接投资问题研究

近年来,中国对欧盟的直接投资出现了爆发式增长。欧洲主权债务危机的爆发及持续蔓延,引发了对全球经济"二次探底"的担忧,也给中国对欧盟直接投资带来了新的问题。本文在实证分析的基础上,认为中国对欧投资的超常增长并不是金融危机以来才发生的;欧债危机虽给中国企业对欧投资提供了机遇,但也带来了更多的障碍和风险。因此,要继续扩大对欧直接投资,就必须正确认识中国对欧盟直接投资的战略意义,厘清存在的障碍和风险,从而有针对性地对欧盟内部不同的区域市场和行业进行直接投资。     

What reduces product uncertainty in live streaming e-commerce? From a signal consistency perspective

E-commerce live streaming has become a popular emerging trend worldwide. However, as an obstacle to consumer decision-making, product uncertainty is still a concern in e-commerce live streaming contexts. Based on signaling theory and uncertainty literature, we propose that signal consistency can reduce product uncertainty and further facilitate consumers’ purchase intention. Moreover, using a sample of 338 live shoppers, we find that anchor-product fit and live content-product fit negatively affect product quality uncertainty but not product fit uncertainty. Danmaku content-product fit and self-product fit negatively influence product quality uncertainty and product fit uncertainty. Product quality uncertainty positively affects product fit uncertainty, and product quality uncertainty and product fit uncertainty have significant negative effects on purchase intention. Additional analyses suggest that four signal consistency cues and two product uncertainty can be combined in three causal configurations to induce high purchase intention. This study extends relevant theory and literature and guides management decisions for e-commerce live streaming sellers and platforms.     

Dynamically consistent alpha‐maxmin expected utility

The alpha‐maxmin model is a prominent example of preferences under Knightian uncertainty as it allows to distinguish ambiguity and ambiguity attitude. These preferences are dynamically inconsistent for nontrivial versions of alpha. In this paper, we derive a recursive, dynamically consistent version of the alpha‐maxmin model. In the continuous‐time limit, the resulting dynamic utility function can be represented as a convex mixture between worst and best case, but now at the local, infinitesimal level. We study the properties of the utility function and provide an Arrow–Pratt approximation of the static and dynamic certainty equivalent. We then derive a consumption‐based capital asset pricing formula and study the implications for derivative valuation under indifference pricing.     

Amazon Mechanical Turk workers can provide consistent and economically meaningful data

Amazon Mechanical Turk (AMT) is an online labor market that is being used increasingly often in the social sciences. This occurs despite significant questions regarding efficacy of the platform. In this article, we attempt to address some of these questions by exploring the consistency of the characteristics of individuals who participate in studies posted on AMT. The primary individuals analyzed in this study are subjects who participated in at least two of eleven experiments that were run on AMT between September of 2012 and January of 2018. We demonstrate subjects consistently report their age, gender, subjective willingness to take risk, and impulsiveness. Further, subjective willingness to take risk is found to be significantly correlated with decisions made in a simple lottery experiment with real stakes—even when the subjective risk measure is reported months, sometimes years, in the past. This suggests the quality of data obtained via AMT is not terribly harmed by the lack of control and low stakes.     

The Financial Effects of Uniform and Mixed Corporate Social Performance

Firms typically present a mixed picture of corporate social performance (CSP), with positive and negative indicators exhibited by the same firm. Thus, stakeholders' judgments of corporate social responsibility (CSR) typically evaluate positives in the context of negatives, and vice versa. Building on social judgment theory, we present two alternative accounts of how stakeholders respond to such complexity, which provide differing implications for the financial effects of CSP: reciprocal dampening and rewarding uniformity. Echoing notable findings on strategic consistency, our US panel study finds that firms that exhibit uniformly positive or uniformly negative indicators in particular dimensions of CSP outperform firms that exhibit a mixed picture of positives and negatives, which supports the notion that stakeholders' judgments of CSR reward uniformity.     

The new IMF approach to capital account management and its blind spots: lessons from Brazil and South Korea

As emerging economies experience a boom in capital inflows, governments are increasingly concerned about their downsides. Even the IMF (International Monetary Fund), long a stalwart proponent of financial liberalization, has engaged in a new debate on capital flow management. Drawing lessons from empirical case studies on Brazil and South Korea, this paper finds that the new IMF framework remains insufficient in two main aspects. First, by defining ‘capital flow management measures’ (CFMs) as a temporary instrument embedded in an overall strategy of financial opening, the organization insists on the general advantages of financial liberalization, which poses serious limits to emerging economies’ policy space. Second, the Fund keeps on stressing a separation of prudential financial regulation, which should be permanent, and temporary CFMs. Yet, the case studies presented here show that, especially for emerging markets with rather open and sophisticated domestic financial markets, both types of measures are interdependent and overlapping. Additionally, we demonstrate the relevance of a third type of regulation, lying on foreign exchange (FX) derivatives instruments, which may also be required to effectively manage foreign investors’ portfolio reallocations and their impact.