浅谈危险与可操作分析(HAZOP)在长输管道中的应用

长输管道是一个复杂的系统工程,具有点多、线长、输送压力高等特点,输送介质多为易燃、易爆、有毒、腐蚀的液体,一旦发生事故,将造成严重的环境污染和经济损失。因此,降低长输管道事故发生率是管道运营单位的首要任务。事实证明,危险与可操作性(HAZOP)分析是一种科学的、行之有效的方法,通过分析可能出现的工艺偏差和对危险源的辨识,将潜在危害消灭在萌芽状态,由事故调查与统计转变为事前预防,很大程度上提高了输油管道系统的安全性。本文论述了HAZOP的方法研究、结合实例探讨了HAZOP在输油管道行业中的应用以及HAZOP的发展前景。     

中国吸引外资与对外投资：面临的问题及因应策略

为对我国对外投资和招商引资的现状进行全面的分析和把握,作者对比分析了我国对外投资流入和流出的规模及相关指数,并借助邓宁投资阶段理论分析了我国对外直接投资所处阶段。结果认为：我国的对外直接投资流出,无论是绝对规模还是相对规模都与FDI流入相差甚远,更与我国当前的经济发展水平不相符。因此,促进FDI流入和流出相互协调势在必行,为此需要切实把握我国FDI流入和流出现状,并以此为基础找到切实可行的措施。     

受限的弱相互作用费米气体化学势的研究

根据平均场近似——Hartee—Fock理论导出了弱相互作用费米气体所满足的薛定谔方程,并通过分离变量法求解得到能量本征值。在此基础上,采用数值求解研究受限的弱相互费米气体的化学势性质,探讨了粒子间相互作用对化学势的影响。     

Technology ladders and R&D in dynamic Cournot markets

Motivated by dramatic and unpredictable technological advances in energy production (for instance drilling and extraction of shale oil), we extend Cournot models of competition to incorporate research and development (R&D) that can lead to (stochastic) drops in production costs. Our model combines features of patent racing with dynamic market structure, capturing the interplay between the immediate competition in terms of production rates and the long-term competition in R&D. The resulting Markov Nash equilibrium is found from a sequence of one-step static games arising between R&D successes, and several numerical examples and extensive analysis of the emerging comparative statics are presented. Analyzing the relationship between current market dominance and the level of R&D investments, we find that market leaders tend to invest more, which in some sense makes oligopoly dynamically unstable. We show that anticipated market transitions have long-term impact; for example the potential of future monopoly can spur R&D investment now, even if the firm is presently uncompetitive and not actively producing. We also show that, surprisingly, random innovations have an ambiguous effect on R&D. This feature, which is driven by the Cournot framework, contrasts with the common situation whereby uncertainty lowers innovation and delays R&D investments. Finally, we demonstrate that increased competition may actually increase efforts to innovate through higher desire to achieve dominance. This would match the anecdotal evidence that the threat of market entrants forces incumbents to maintain high R&D.     

Technological evolution and economic instability: Theoretical simulations

This paper aims to study those firms which have similar characteristics at the beginning of time. The objective is to observe the relation that exists between technological evolution, firms' performances and economic instability. This is done using an adaptation of the Nelson and Winter model, in order to show the possibility of various growth trajectories, and also to underline the heterogeneity of the firms. This heterogeneity corresponds to a period of economic instability, and itself only exists as a result of the specific nature of the technological trend. The theoretical interest lies in using the structures/performances relation, by according a central place to innovation.     

珠三角非用地扩张型总体规划编制初步研究——以广佛都市圈中的南海区大沥镇为例

非用地扩张型总体规划是在紧缺资源束缚条件下,特殊地区的特殊规划,也将是未来我国绝大多数城镇发展或迟或早都会面对的问题,是一个相对前沿的规划编制方式。本文以处于广佛都市圈中南海区大沥镇为例,对非用地扩张型总体规划的编制进行初步研究,主要从城乡统筹、发展转型、产业升级、空间挖潜、制度创新等角度,阐述非用地扩张性总体规划编制所应当关注的问题与对策。     

Effect of credible quality investment with Bertrand and Cournot competition

We show how credible revelation and ability to commit to quality choice effect equilibrium qualities and welfare when product market is either Bertrand or Cournot competition. We show that results depend on the type of competition but not generally on the cost of quality function. We show that with Bertrand competition, the equilibrium qualities are lower with credible commitment. Competition is moderated and producer surplus is higher and consumer surplus lower. With Cournot competition, higher quality will be better but lower quality will be worse with credible commitment. Consumer surplus is always greater with credible commitment and if cost does not increase too quickly with quality, producer surplus will also increase. Thus credible commitment is a collusive device with Bertrand competition but it can improve social welfare with Cournot competition. Received: February 8, 2000; revised version: February 14, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" The idea of this paper originated in the weekly workshops of Mordecai Kurz at Stanford. I am forever in debted to Mordecai and fellow students – Luis Cabral, Peter DeMarzo, John Hillas, Michihiro Kandori, Steve Langois, Patrick McAllister, Steve Sharpe, Peter Streufert, Steve Turnbull and Gyu-Ho Wang – for their criticism and encouragement. I also benefited from comments from Yi-Heng Chen, Jin-Li Hu, Kala Krishna, Jinji Naoto, Thomas J. Prusa, and Shyh-Fang Ueng at various later stages of this work. Last but not least, I am grateful for the detailed comments of the referee.     

Regional wages and market potential in the enlarged EU: an empirical investigation

This article empirically analyses the link between market potential and regional wages in the enlarged EU. We contribute to the existing literature in several ways: (1) we analyse the link between market potential and wages for the EU27 and (2) deconstruct total market potential into several geographical components and analyse their respective contributions to explaining the geographical wage structure. We correct for existing spatial autocorrelation and endogeneity by using an instrumental variable generalized spatial two-stage least squares (IV GS2SLS).     

浅议上海以一流国际金融中心为建设目标

过去十年,上海已经初步建成了国内金融中心。并且上海市政府提出在2010年基本建成亚太地区的国际金融中心之一的目标。但是到底上海将最终建设成为什么样的国际金融中心,目前尚无定论。因此,笔者在上海与香港分工协作前提之下,就谁应建设成一流国际金融中心的问题提出一些不同     

价值工程在优势和潜优势项目管理中的应用研究

文章对价值工程在优势和潜优势项目管理中的应用进行研究,介绍了价值工程工作的基本原理,对价值工程在优势和潜优势项目管理中的工作内容及程序进行了详细研究。根据价值工程理论,对优势与潜优势项目功能体系及其成本进行了分析,建立了优势和潜优势项目管理功能评价模型和价值评价方法,提出了价值工程活动组织体制与运行机制。文章最后得出如下结论：价值工程既可应用于优势与潜优势项目的系统管理方案的选择和优化,也可应用于某一子系统实施阶段的方案分析、程序优化,并建议管理者深入学习和深刻理解价值工程理论及其应用,使这门管理技术得到更广泛的应用。