RECOVERING PORTFOLIO DEFAULT INTENSITIES IMPLIED BY CDO QUOTES

We propose a stable nonparametric algorithm for the calibration of “top‐down” pricing models for portfolio credit derivatives: given a set of observations of market spreads for collateralized debt obligation (CDO) tranches, we construct a risk‐neutral default intensity process for the portfolio underlying the CDO which matches these observations, by looking for the risk‐neutral loss process “closest” to a prior loss process, verifying the calibration constraints. We formalize the problem in terms of minimization of relative entropy with respect to the prior under calibration constraints and use convex duality methods to solve the problem: the dual problem is shown to be an intensity control problem, characterized in terms of a Hamilton–Jacobi system of differential equations, for which we present an analytical solution. Given a set of observed CDO tranche spreads, our method allows to construct a default intensity process which leads to tranche spreads consistent with the observations. We illustrate our method on ITRAXX index data: our results reveal strong evidence for the dependence of loss transitions rates on the previous number of defaults, and offer quantitative evidence for contagion effects in the (risk‐neutral) loss process.     

省际亲贫式支出对国民幸福 水平影响的差异化研究

本文以公共财政学、新经济地理学、空间计量经济学为理论基础，引入地理空间因素，分析了2000-2010年亲贫式支出对国民幸福水平的省际影响。研究发现：空间溢出效应明显存在；本地区每增加1%亲贫式支出会带动国民幸福指数提升范围大致在02%~1%之间，邻近地区国民幸福指数提高1%会带动本地区国民幸福指数提升07%左右；空间计量模型估计效果优于最小二乘估计效果，空间滞后模型优于空间误差模型。新经济地理学理论能够提供我国各省市亲贫式支出与国民幸福指数集聚、差异及其形成原因的部分解释。     

语言交际图式对目标管理的启示

著名逻辑学家周礼全先生曾概括陈述了语言交际图式的基本思想,表达了人们在交际过程中意图传递的基本图式。借鉴这个基本图式,可以构建目标管理中目标传达与执行的逻辑图式,这个图式为目标管理中各种保障目标实现的策略提供了基本的逻辑学依据,并为管理策略创新与组织目标的成功实施提供了基本思维图式。     

担保债权凭证之评价——多因子模型和KMV模型之探讨

探讨担保债权凭证商品之评价，包含缩减式模型及结构式模型两种研究方法；前者以多因子相关性模型，而後者以KMV模型为方法探讨之主轴。多因子相关性模型中资产的违约分配函数分别假设为指数、韦伯及Burr分配；再分别结合Gauss Copula或t5 Copula函数，估计商品的信用价差。实证分析以台湾“玉山银行债券资产证券化特殊目的信托2005—1受益证券”为例。实证研究结果发现，指数分配之信用价差估计值偏大，Burr分配估计值最小；t5 Copula函数之信用价差估计值都较Gauss Copula函数之估计值大。此外，将数据作适当调整後应用KMV模型之信用价差估计值比多因子相关性模型之估计值大。     

FDI对我国中部地区技术进步影响的实证研究

梳理了中部地区吸收利用FDI的现状和特征,计算出了中部的TFP(全要素生产率),并以此作为技术进步的衡量指标,构建VAR模型对FDI和TFP的相关性进行实证分析.结果表明,短期内FDI对中部地区的技术进步有一定的促进作用,但长期来看促进作用并不十分显著.中部地区在吸收利用FDI过程中要引导技术引进,加强自主创新；创造公平环境,扶持本土企业；鼓励中外合资,强化技术合作.     

Is participation in agri-environmental programs affected by liquidity and solvency?

Financial constraints, both in the short and long run, have an impact on economic well-being of farm families. Additionally, financial constraints have an impact on production efficiency and technology adoption. This study investigates factors affecting farmers’ participation in the agri-environmental programs like Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) and the Environmental Quality Incentives Programs (EQIPs) in the U.S. particular attention is given to the roles of liquidity and solvency on participation in CRP and EQIP. Results show that both liquidity and solvency have a negative impact on participation in such programs. Additionally, we found that access to the Internet plays an important role in the farmer's decision to participate in CRP and EQIP. Our results also suggested that beginning farmers are more likely to participate in EQIP program.     

关注社会责任标准(体系) 提升企业竞争力

"中国制造"的增加,SA 8000,ISO 26000等社会责任标准(体系)越来越受到关注,这些都直接或间接的对中国企业尤其是劳动密集型企业带来影响。本文正是基于这样的背景下,介绍了社会责任的概念,并阐述了企业关注社会责任标准的现实意义     

Identifying the global transmission of the 2007–2009 financial crisis in a GVAR model

The paper analyses and compares the role that the tightening in liquidity conditions and the collapse in risk appetite played for the global transmission of the financial crisis. Dealing with identification and the large dimensionality of the empirical exercise with a Global VAR approach, the findings highlight the diversity of the transmission process. While liquidity shocks have had a more severe impact on advanced economies, it was mainly the decline in risk appetite that affected emerging market economies. The tightening of financial conditions was a key transmission channel for advanced economies, whereas for emerging markets it was mainly the real side of the economy that suffered. Moreover, there are some striking differences also within types of economies, with Europe being more adversely affected by the fall in risk appetite than other advanced economies.     

宽严相济刑事政策在刑法修正案(八)中的体现

《中华人民共和国刑法修正案(八)》在定罪、量刑和刑罚的执行等方面都体现了宽严相济刑事政策,为刑法目的的实现提供了更加坚实的基础和更加充足的保障。     

我国湖泊水环境中有机氯农药污染的研究进展

有机氯农药(OCPs)是一类对人体和生物具有高毒性的持久性有机污染物,它可通过食物链富集对人体健康产生威胁。总结分析了我国近年来OCPs在湖泊水环境中的残留水平及分布特征,为政府部门评价持久性有机污染物对我国湖泊环境污染状况以及开展污染物区域治理提供决策依据。