Flight-to-quality and correlation between currency and stock returns

We document that capital flows in and out of emerging or developed markets are sensitive to global equity market conditions. Capital tends to move out of emerging into developed countries in global down markets, leading to depreciation (appreciation) of emerging (developed) currencies. This generates a positive (negative) correlation between currency and equity in emerging (developed) markets which is amplified by the magnitude of the capital movement. We also verify that hedging currency risks may undo the natural hedge and increase the total return volatility under negative correlation.     

A comprehensive approach to measuring the relation between systemic risk exposure and sovereign debt

Using an integrated model to control for simultaneity, as well as new risk measurement techniques such as Adapted Exposure CoVaR and Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES), we show that the aggregate systemic risk exposure of financial institutions is positively related to sovereign debt yields in European countries in an episodic manner, varying positively with the intensity of the financial crisis facing a particular nation. We find evidence of a simultaneous relation between systemic risk exposure and sovereign debt yields. This suggests that models of sovereign debt yields should also include the systemic risk of a country's financial system in order to avoid potentially important mis-specification errors. We find evidence that systemic risk of a country's financial institutions and the risk of sovereign governments are inter-related and shocks to these domestic linkages are stronger and longer lasting than international risk spillovers. Thus, the channel in which domestic sovereign debt yields can be affected by another nation's sovereign debt is mostly an indirect one in that shocks to a foreign country's government finances are transmitted to that country's financial system which, in turn, can spill over to the domestic financial system and, ultimately, have a destabilizing effect on the domestic sovereign debt market.     

中国货币互换协议的动因分析

本文将我国货币互换协议的历程划分为三个时段,对其背后的动因进行了分析,揭示出:(1)次贷危机前的动因主要是,寻求亚洲区域合作,增强抵御外来冲击的能力,促进区域经济发展;(2)次贷危机中的动因主要是,提供短期流动性,稳定市场预期和信心,促进对外贸易和投资,防止经济增长放缓;(3)次贷危机后的动因侧重于推动人民币国际化、促进经济增长。三个时段的动因带有历史承接性,但又体现出一定的"时变性"。另外,与美国同期对比后发现,我国中央银行对货币互换协议进行了期限上的创新以将其用于对外贸易、投资,并兼顾人民币国际化,从而多元化了其目标。     

Decomposing financial (in)stability in emerging economies

The analysis of the build-up of risks in emerging economies have traditionally been scarce and focused mostly on external risks, despite the recent substantial development of their financial system. This paper builds an index of financial vulnerabilities tailored to emerging economies, grouping 32 indicators around four poles: valuation and risk appetite, imbalances in the non-financial sector, financial sector vulnerabilities, and global vulnerabilities. It adopts a model-free approach, purposely departing from early warning models or complex econometric constructs, and rely on data made already available by international organisations. Our index of financial vulnerabilities enables a granular mapping of where risk originates and how it spreads to other parts of the financial system. Using various data visualisation tools and benefitting from the flexibility of our index’s methodology, we are able build a narrative of the evolution of financial stability in emerging economies from 2005 to 2015. Finally, we also discuss the relation between our index and both the business cycle (proxied by GDP) and the credit cycle (proxied by the credit-to-GDP gap).     

基于模糊决策理论的中国外汇储备币种结构研究

借鉴模糊决策理论的满意度概念,从理论上建立外汇储备币种结构选择的一般最优化模型,从实证上模拟在不同隶属函数参数和不同汇率路径假设下的中国外汇储备币种结构,并分析了收益率隶属函数参数和利率对中国外汇储备货币结构的影响.     

Financial dollarization: Short-run determinants in transition economies

This paper examines the determinants of financial dollarization in transition economies from a short-run perspective. Using aggregate monthly data of deposit and loan dollarization we study the drivers of short-term fluctuations in dollarization and test their importance at different levels of dollarization. The results provide evidence that (a) the positive (negative) short-run effects of depreciation (monetary expansion) on deposit dollarization are exacerbated in high-dollarization countries; (b) short-run loan dollarization is mainly driven by banks matching of domestic loans and deposits, currency matching of assets and liabilities, international financial integration, and institutional quality; and (c) both types of short-run dollarization are affected by interest rate differentials and deviations from desired dollarization.     

Rethinking the role of NCBs in the EMU

Five years after the introduction of unified monetary policy in the EMU, some member countries are wondering whether they have ceded too much of their policy-making powers. The fact that National Central Banks no longer carry out sizable expansionary open market or foreign exchange market operations suggests that they face substantially reduced abilities to set economic policy.This paper demonstrates that, in fact, very little power has been yielded: on the fiscal front, the force of such policy initiatives is enhanced by the fixity of the exchange rate. On the monetary front, we show that there is an observational equivalence between all Central Bank actions under fixed exchange rates. This implies that the authorities retain the same amount of policy flexibility as before. So long as they use an alternative form of policy initiative, carrying out what previously would have been characterized as sterilized foreign exchange market operations, their ability to influence the macro performance of their economy is undiminished.     

The timing of exchange rate collapse

Recent episodes of exchange rate collapse have renewed interest in models of speculative attacks. These episodes have been considered by some observers to be inconsistent with “fundamentals” models of attack since there was no prolonged period of policy misalignment and declining reserves, as required by such models. This paper develops a fundamentals model in which collapse is instantaneous at the time of unexpected policy change and/or a change in the expectations of future policy, even for a reserve abundant country.     

CURRENCY BOARD ARRANGEMENTS AS A SUPER‐FIXED ALTERNATIVE IN THE CHOICE OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIME1

Currency board arrangements (CBAs) are currently widely proposed as a super‐fixed exchange rate solution to exchange rate volatility. This paper researches the nature, operation, benefits and disadvantages of CBAs. Benefits comprise improved policy credibility, lower inflation and interest rate levels, increased economic growth, increased foreign capital flows, and sharply reduced currency speculation. These are compared with the shortcomings of CBAs, such as the absence of a lender of last resort, real exchange rate misalignments and their consequences for the economy. The paper identifies the type of country that would be the most likely candidate to benefit from a CBA.     

银行垄断与银行危机

银行垄断不必然产生无效率，更不用说银行危机了。但是这一状况却出现在我国的四大专业银行上。在这篇文章里，作者指出，由于我们在国有银行作用定位上的错误，强使它们承担了许多本不属于它们的社会和政治的义务，从主观和客观两方面确定了其垄断地位，因此产生了许多严重的问题，如资本金不足，技术上的破产等，尤其是潜在的银行危机。