The Boom and Bust of the RMB's Internationalization: A Perspective from Cross‐Border Arbitrage

The RMB's internationalization developed very quickly from 2010 to 2015H1, but it slowed down significantly since 2015H2. This paper argues that cross‐border arbitraging activities played a significant role in both the boom and the bust of the RMB's internationalization. A slower pace of the RMB's internationalization based more on real demand might become a new norm in the future. To pursue a more sustainable RMB internationalization in the next decade, the Chinese government should maintain a relatively high economic growth rate, avoid the burst of systemic financial crisis, continue to liberalize the capital account in a gradual and cautious way, accelerate the reform and opening up of the domestic financial market, and integrate the RMB's internationalization with Asian monetary cooperation.     

人口老龄化、社会保障与人力资本投资

本文以我国养老保险的"统账结合"模式为例,探讨了社会保障制度对人口老龄化和人力资本投资的影响。根据本文的推导和验证,增加"统账结合"模式中个人账户的比例,将会对居民的人力资本投资产生一定的激励作用,并延缓其退出劳动力市场的时间,从而缓解人口老龄化对经济和社会发展带来的压力。另外,本文还在"统账结合"模型下,分析了人力资本投资与退休的关系,结果发现,增加人力资本投资,可以延长居民的劳动参与时间。由此,我国的社会保障制度应该在以下两个方面进行改革:适当增加"统账结合"模式中个人承担的比例;加快农村的社会保障体系建设,促进覆盖全国的社会保障体系的形成。     

基于会计信息监管特性的会计监管政策分析

建立和完善会计监管政策有其复杂的制约因素,本文从会计信息及监管政策的特性入手,分析了会计监管政策不完善的若干表现形式,以期为改进我国现有的会计市场监管政策提供参考。     

Trade Development and Global Crisis Influence

The purpose of this paper is to create a comprehensive analysis of the development of foreign trade in the global world, the process of divergence of exports and imports under the influence political and economic changes in Europe and the economic crisis in the world. Data from world public databases are summarized to a clear and understandable form. We analyzed the share of imports and exports （due to the global trade is presented） and its potential impact on the development of current account balance （CAB） for the United States of America （USA）, the European Union （EU）, and China. Correlation coefficient timeline for the last decade of CAB and world trade is also presented to show the influence of trade flow in the world and the EU with respect to current account. The work emphasizes the clear and understandable processing of the required data, which are then formulated to make arguments and then used to make predictions of further development of world trade. From summarized data, future crisis can be predicted and impacts can be evaluated.     

人民币国际化进程中的风险防范

随着跨境人民币交易范围和数量的迅速扩大,人民币国际化进程加快。境内人民币与境外人民币之间如何建立“防火墙”,防范围际投机资本的攻击,成为亟待解决的问题。境外人民币流出入通过设立“外汇人民币”账户可以与境内人民币分离,便利对境外人民币的统计监测,区分和掌握人民币基础货币在境内和境外的分布状况和变动情况,起到预警作用,也便于货币政策的稳健运行。与之配套的措施是建立健全境外人民币清算体系,将“外汇人民币”纳入国际收支统计分析及外债统计管理范畴。     

全球经常项目失衡的影响因素——基于跨国数据的实证分析

全球经常项目失衡是影响当前世界经济健康发展的一个不确定性因素,经过多年累积,它已经发展成为威胁全球经济活力的重要隐患.借助于全球范围内56个国家或地区1980-2005年的经济数据,针对影响经常项目失衡的多种因素进行实证检验,结果表明,当前全球经常项目失衡与各国政府的财政收支状况密切相关.政府财政收支对经常项目收支具有显著的正效应;相对劳动生产率对于发达国家经常项目收支影响作用相对突出;金融开放度对经常项目收支具有显著的负效应,但金融深化对经常项目收支的影响作用却没有得到明显的经验证据.因此,在世界经济增速放缓以及全球经济正在进入新的不稳定地带的情况下,只有通过有效的国际经济政策协调,才能促进当前全球经常项目失衡问题的有序解决.     

中外养老保险运营效率的比较与启示

完善养老保险制度,提高制度的可转移性,降低制度的管理成本,是提高养老保险运营效率的核心问题。本文从比较中外养老保险的运营效率出发,探讨了我国城镇企业职工基本养老保险制度改革的缺陷和不足,提出了简化养老保险制度、提高制度运营效率的构想,并对构想的可行性进行了分析。本文研究的目的是提醒政府有关管理部门简化制度设计,提高养老保险的运营效率,切实保障退休人员的基本生活。     

Capital account reform and short- and long-run stock price leadership

This paper studies the effect of capital account liberalization policies on the price discovery of cross-listings in Chinese stocks. We construct a non-linear causality framework that decomposes short- and long-run dimensions of price leadership. Our analysis shows that capital account liberalization has had a profound effect on long-run A- and H-price leadership traits. Specifically, increased inward capital movement from Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors strengthens long-term leadership in the mainland A-market. Similarly, increased capital outflow from the Chinese mainland galvanizes long-term price discovery processes in the Hong Kong H-market. We thus offer strong evidence that capital account liberalization promotes stock market efficiency in the long-run. The present study's empirical account also suggests that such capital flows inhibit short-term lead-lag effects.     

On the effectiveness of capital controls during the Great Recession: The Brazilian experience (2007–2013)

In this study, we analyze the impact in Brazil of a tax on external capital flows called “Imposto Sobre Operações Finaceiras” (IOF), by following data on a monthly basis from 2007 to 2013. Our goal is to determine whether a change in tax legislation can produce significant effects on the pattern of financial inflows from abroad. Using univariate structural models, our results show that changes in the IOF produced structural breaks on foreign portfolio investments.     

经济增长、金融深化与全球经济失衡

文章建立了一个囊括经济增长、金融市场和资本流动等诸多因素的全球均衡模型,并采用ECM模型实证检验了这些因素对全球经济失衡的影响.研究发现,由于亚洲新兴国家和美国之间存在经济增长率的差异和非对称的金融市场,导致全球经济失衡.解决全球性经济失衡的根本出路在于改变现有的资产组合的供求关系,降低亚洲新兴国家对美元储备资产的需求,而美元贬值则并不能纠正全球经济失衡.