我国地方政府公共服务支出评价——基于DEA的省际数据比较

对地方政府公共服务的财政支出进行效率评价,可以发现相对地方政府公共服务投入规模可能达到的效率改进目标.DEA评价方法能满足政府部门追求目标的多样性和弹性,政府部门可以通过DEA有效性评价进行横向比较和分析,调整公共服务财政支出的规模和方向.用逻辑分析法初选出评价公共服务支出的指标体系,并对整体评价指标体系进行冗余度和辨识度检测后,采用DEA方法和LINDO软件对我国31个省公共服务支出的效率进行了相对有效性评价.研究表明,其中有17个省的公共服务支出是相对有效的,北京和贵州为弱DEA有效,其余省份为非DEA有效.通过计算投入冗余额、产出不足额并利用投影法计算出这些省份达到DEA有效的投入产出调整值,提出了弱DEA有效和非DEA有效省份效率改进的对策.     

中国粮食生产空间布局变迁实证

中国的粮食生产空间布局区域特征明显,了解中国粮食生产空间布局变化特征及影响因素对于制定合理的粮食生产政策具有重要意义,文章运用空间计量经济学Moran I指数及Panel Data模型,分析了中国31个省级区域粮食生产空间布局特征及其影响因素.     

计量经济学在中国发展的轨迹 --对《经济研究》1979-2004年刊载论文的统计分析

本文统计分析了1 979—2 0 0 4年《经济研究》刊登的3 90 2篇论文中的应用计量经济学论文的数量和比重、研究主题和应用目的、数据类型和来源、模型结构和估计方法等特征;并与《数量经济技术经济研究》、《管理世界》、《美国经济评论》等国内外五种刊物进行了对比。在此基础上,总结了中国应用计量经济学发展轨迹的三大特征     

Cybersecurity breaches and investors’ interest in the firm as an investment

Cybersecurity breaches pose a significant risk to firms. To combat these risks, many firms engage in strategic cybersecurity risk management initiatives. While these efforts may reduce the likelihood of a cybersecurity breach, they do not eliminate the risk of a breach. In the event of a cybersecurity breach, firms may issue an apology to investors. This study uses an experiment to examine whether a firm indicates cybersecurity risk management is a strategic initiative and whether a post-cybersecurity breach apology by the CEO impacts nonprofessional investors’ investment interest in the firm. Results show that, in response to a cybersecurity breach, the presence of a CEO apology positively impacts investors’ investment impression and their perceptions of CEO affective and CEO cognitive trust. We find that investors’ investment interest is lowest for a firm that previously indicates cybersecurity risk management is a strategic initiative and where the CEO does not issue an apology. The CEO apology, however, does not significantly impact investment amount, a secondary measure of investor interest. Results from this study have implications for managers, investors, and regulators.     

中国金融发展与城市化关系的区域差异

本文运用面板单位根检验、协整检验以及误差修正模型等计量方法,对中国1986-2005年东、中、西部地区的金融发展与城市化的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明中国金融发展与城市化二者之间的关系呈现出明显的区域差异性:长期而言,东、中、西部地区金融发展都不是城市化的原因,也就是说三大地区金融发展都没有促进城市化进程。东、中部地区金融发展与城市化之间具有城市化引导金融发展的单向长期因果关系;东部地区金融发展与经济增长之间还具有城市化引导金融发展的短期因果关系。据此,本文最后提出了简短的对策与建议。     

Detailed cost estimating in the automotive industry: Data and information requirements

The automotive industry operates in a very competitive market which requires controlling product costs, improving the product quality and shortening the development lead time. Cost estimation requires quality data and information, therefore this research project identified several issues that hinder this activity, namely a lack of resources and information acquiring and validation difficulties. This research paper presents the various data and information requirements for detailed cost estimating in automotive industry. The research project has identified the common cost estimation process model within the identified industry sector. The study identified the types of data and information requirements for cost estimating. It has also constructed the relevant data infrastructure as the basis for a Web Portal, which is the physical presentation of the information infrastructure. Multiple sources of data collection techniques were employed to identify the types of data needed for detailed cost estimates within a manufacturing company. These techniques include participant observation, semi-structured interviews, process models and document analysis of six different UK based automotive companies. Methods of process modelling like IDEF3 and knowledge capture technique known as X-Pat (eXpert Process Knowledge Analysis Tool) were employed in this study.This study makes several contributions concerning both conceptual and practicable information issues that have long vexed detailed cost estimating practices in the automotive industry. The study conceptually defines the detailed bottom-up information (i.e., individual cost elements and the links between them) needed for an accurate estimate of cost, and shows why each element of information is needed and where it fits into the cost model. To respond to the practicable information vexations, the study shows where to find the necessary cost information and proposes a validation method. The research creates useful knowledge in the form of an improved understanding of information requirements for cost estimates. The benefits to the industry of better cost estimates based on this research at the conceptual design stage include improved cost control and enhanced ability to adjust to anticipated market trends.     

具有异质性非参数时间趋势的面板数据模型的估计

本文为一类具有异质性非参数时间趋势的面板数据模型提出了一种简单估计方法。基于局部多项式回归的思想,首先去除数据中的时间趋势成分,然后由最小二乘法来估计公共系数,同时得到时间趋势函数的非参数估计。在一些正则条件下,研究了这些估计量的渐近性质,即在时间维度T和横截面维度n同时趋向无穷时,建立了各个估计量的渐近相合性和渐近正态性。最后通过蒙特卡洛模拟,考查了这种估计方法的有限样本性质。     

When Should “Consumers-as-Producers” Have to Comply With Consumer Protection Laws?

Since the 1960s, consumer protection law has been built on the contrast between large “producers” and small “consumers.” Today, instead, an ordinary consumer owns what can accurately be called a “personal mainframe”—a home computer whose processing power matches an IBM mainframe from about 10 Years ago. Equipped with a personal mainframe—an Information-Age factory—ordinary “consumers” at home are increasingly also becoming “producers.” As unregulated consumers become regulated producers, a major legal question is whether and when the individual should have to comply with consumer protection laws. The discussion here selects four examples of US legal rules that might apply to consumers-as-producers, with recommendations spanning the range of possibilities: (1) consumer privacy legislation: creating a threshold, with no compliance required for databases of fewer than 5,000 names, is recommended; (2) advertising substantiation: concerning the requirement that advertisers have a “reasonable basis” for their claims, applying current law to small advertisers is recommended; (3) spam: current law does not create a threshold for those who send a few commercial emails, but such a threshold is worth considering; (4) political blogging: the author agrees with the US Federal Election Commission decision to create a major exemption from campaign finance laws for online political advocacy, even for large blogs or websites. The common theme among these recommendations is to describe the sort of harm that existing law seeks to reduce. The approach here next looks at how the use of personal mainframes affects creation of those harms. Where the sorts of harm are likely to be created by consumers-as-producers, the analysis tilts towards requiring compliance. Where the sorts of harms are unlikely to be caused by consumers-as-producers, then the case for an exception is stronger.