我国房地产价格影响因素及其作用效应的计量检验

目前,房地产价格的过快增长已经成为影响民生的突出问题,房地产价格的增长远远超过了居民消费和收入水平的增长。我国政府已经将遏制部分城市房价过快上涨势头、满足人民群众的基本住房需求、促进房地产市场平稳健康发展作为房地产市场的宏观调控目标。因此对房地产价格的影响因素进行实证研究,可以为我国宏观政策的制定与实施提供经验证据。     

低碳经济发展中的碳排放驱动因素实证研究——以浙江省为例

本文基于三大产业和居民生活部门的12种能源消费量数据,较全面地测算了1995—2008年浙江省碳排放量,建立了碳排放驱动因素分解模型,将碳排放的驱动因素分解为能源强度、结构调整、经济发展和人口规模等四大类效应,并采用对数平均权重分解法(LMDI)测算了各类效应对碳排放量的贡献值、变化趋势及相互作用机理。研究结果表明,1995—2008年,浙江省碳排放量呈现不断上升的趋势;经济发展和人口规模对碳排放的正向驱动效应远超过能源强度和结构调整产生的负向驱动效应。本文同时测算出浙江已跨越了碳排放强度的高峰阶段,但仍处于碳排放强度高峰迈向人均碳排放量高峰的阶段。为缩短不同碳排放高峰的跨越时间,降低高峰峰值,本文提出了加快低碳经济发展的相关政策建议。     

建筑工程项目全程管理的内涵及思考

建筑工程项目管理是一项复杂、繁琐的工作,只有对项目的管理进行全盘考虑,才能使工程项目做到尽善尽美。文章根据笔者的工作经验,对工程项目管理工作进行了阐述。     

TRADE INTEGRATION,OUTSOURCING AND EMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRIA: A DECOMPOSITION APPROACH

Outsourcing and trade integration of advanced countries is debated with respect to employment effects, in particular for low educated workers – at least in relative terms. We study the employment effects – differentiated by educational attainment levels – of changes in the patterns of trade integration and outsourcing in the Austrian economy over the periods 1995–2000 and 2000–2005 using hierarchical decomposition analysis based on deflated input–output tables. Outsourcing is modeled as changes in the shares of domestically produced intermediates in total intermediates. A similar decomposition of the final demand vector allows us to draw conclusions on the overall employment effects of trade integration. The results suggest that the expected negative employment effects of outsourcing and rising import penetration have been overcompensated by increasing exports. Thus, the overall employment effects of Austrian trade integration have been positive for all educational attainment groups. However, whereas the total effects have been strongest for medium and high educated workers over the period 1995–2000, employment of low educated workers have been strongest and positively affected over the period 2000–2005. This pattern can be explained by a more sluggish export performance together with stronger negative effects of outsourcing and import penetration in medium and high-skill intensive products.     

中国货币供应、通货膨胀及经济增长关系实证研究

采用协整与方差分解的方法时中国货币供应、通货膨胀与经济增长的关系进行实证研究发现,通货膨胀与经济增长在短期和长期中作用关系相反,但都具有回归自然水平趋势,货币供应时通货膨胀和经济增长的影响具有滞后效应,长期内货币非中性。而通货膨胀和经济增长并不影响货币供应。一方面。应当采取措施降低货币供应增长率：另一方面,偏紧货币政策的滞后效应可能导致经济紧缩应当采取措施降低货币供应增长率,因此应谨慎调控宏观经济政策,以避免金融风险。     

Bilateral Trade Balances: Evidence from Malaysia*

This study examines the impacts of real exchange rates on the bilateral trade balances of Malaysia with the USA, Japan and Singapore. The results for the long‐run cointegrating vectors show that depreciation or devaluation of real exchange rates will improve bilateral trade balances. In the short run, there is some evidence of the J‐curve phenomenon. Changes in real money supply contribute greatly to changes in real exchange rates. Generally, changes in real exchange rates contribute significantly to changes in bilateral trade balances. Monetary policy can be used to influence bilateral trade balances.     

Trends in Total and Subgroup Income Inequality in the Singaporean Workforce

This paper examines the trends in income inequality in Singapore using Labour Force Survey data from 1974 to 1998. Trends in inequality within and between age, educational and occupational groups are studied using the Theil inequality index. A new method based on the Gini coefficient is also utilized to explore the nature of inter-temporal variation in within-group inequality. Any increase within age-group inequality is due to changing income shares, while the decrease in educational-group inequality comes from decreases in within-group inequality. The contribution of intereducation inequality has also increased over the years, as has inter-occupational inequality.     

马尔可夫随机场在SAR图像处理中的应用

旅游业是一种外向性特征鲜明、关联带动性强、可持续发展性强的产业。它对地方政府的招商引资工作有着独特而重要的促进作用:旅游项目本身是良好的引资项目;商务旅游的开发直接促进招商引资工作;旅游业的发展有助于塑造和改善地方形象,改善地方投资环境。要充分发挥这些积极作用,就应在商务旅游产品开发、旅游与招商工作相结合、城市建设与旅游开发一体化、旅游与相关产业相结合等方面多下功夫。     

土地流转对农户贫困脆弱性的影响研究

研究目的:探究土地流转对农户贫困脆弱性的影响,为防范农户陷入贫困和解决农村贫困提供理论和实证依据。研究方法:本文借助2016年湖北省1682个农户实地调查数据,基于倾向得分匹配法(PSM)和回归方程的Shapley值分解法,分别考察国定贫困线、1.9美元贫困线和3.1美元贫困线下不同类型土地有无转出和转出面积对农户贫困脆弱性的影响。研究结果:土地转出能够显著降低农户的贫困脆弱性,且农户贫困脆弱性随着转出土地面积的增加而降低;从土地转出的异质性来看,水田转出对缓解农户贫困脆弱性的效果更为明显,旱地转出的效果次之。研究结论:应进一步加快农村土地流转,释放农村剩余劳动力,不断增加农户收入,从而降低农户贫困脆弱性。     

城市住宅价格与宏观经济变量的关系分析——基于VAR模型的实证研究

通过分析选取住宅价格指数(HPI)、国内生产总值增长率(GDP)、1-3年期银行贷款利率(IR)作为内生变量,滞后两期的广义货币供应量(M2)作为外生变量,建立了向量自回归模型。并在此基础上,运用协整分析、脉冲响应函数、方差分解和格兰杰因果检验等研究方法对住宅价格指数与宏观经济变量之间的动态相关关系进行了研究。研究结果表明,我国的住宅价格与所选用的宏观经济变量之间存在一定交互响应作用,并就此提出了相关建议。