The Riskiness of Corporate Bonds

We use an index of riskiness recently proposed by Aumann and Serrano ( 2008 ) to analyze how the riskiness of diversified portfolios of corporate bonds changes across rating classes and through time and how it compares to the riskiness of other financial instruments. We find that differences in riskiness among portfolios of bonds belonging to different rating classes are seldom statistically significant. We instead find significant time variation in riskiness, driven mainly by return volatility, inflation, and average bond yields. In particular, we find that increases in average bond yields have historically tended to reduce the riskiness of portfolios of corporate bonds by increasing their expected return and by lowering the probability of portfolio losses.     

A note on “A directional slacks-based measure of technical inefficiency”

In this note we show, by means of several examples, that a directional distance function model cannot be matched with an additive model. Specifically, we show the difference between the directional slacks-based measure and the corresponding directional distance function.     

Non-linear long horizon returns predictability: evidence from six south-east Asian markets

Whilst the existence of long-horizon returns predictability has been a recurrent theme in empirical finance research, extant work has focused almost exclusively on the US, and more recent work has cast doubt over the validity of such potential predictability due to non-stationarity and serial correlation in the data. The present paper examines long-horizon returns predictability in six South-East Asian markets in the context of unit root tests conducted under corrections for serial correlation and heteroscedasticity. The analysis conducted also extends the investigation of long-horizon predictability to the non-linear setting, and examines whether any detected non-linear predictability is consistent with behavioural approaches to asset pricing which emphasise the role of noise traders. The results obtained suggest the following conclusions. First, long-horizon predictability is present in each of the six South-East Asian markets considered. Second, whilst forecast power increases with horizon, for the majority of series it is maximised for forecast horizons of between 12 and 48 months. Third, non-linear predictability is reported for all series, suggesting that positive and negative values of the (demeaned) dividend yield impart different levels of predictability for returns at different forecast horizons. However, there is no consistency in the pattern of non-linearity reported, and whilst the observed patterns are consistent with noise traders models for some of the markets considered, this is not true of all the markets considered. Nevertheless, the non-linear dynamics detected are suggestive of potential market inefficiencies in all six cases.     

U.S. productivity in agriculture and R&D

This paper examines the impact of R&D on multifactor productivity in the U.S. agricultural sector over the 1910–1990 period. We use the Bennet–Bowley indicator to measure agricultural productivity based on a multiple output-multiple input technology. We demonstrate the relationship between the price dependent Bennet–Bowley indicator and the Luenberger productivity indicator which is constructed from directional distance functions without requiring price information. These performance measures are dual to the profit function which arguably makes them especially useful in the agricultural setting. We employ time-series techniques to investigate the effect of R&D on the pattern of productivity growth. We find that we cannot reject the presence of a cointegrating relationship between the two series and that productivity growth in the U.S. agriculture responds positively to R&D expenditure with a lag of between four and ten periods.

Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: Enhancing the scenario method

In this paper we review and analyse scenario planning as an aid to anticipation of the future under conditions of low predictability. We examine how successful the method is in mitigating issues to do with inappropriate framing, cognitive and motivational bias, and inappropriate attributions of causality. Although we demonstrate that the scenario method contains weaknesses, we identify a potential for improvement. Four general principles that should help to enhance the role of scenario planning when predictability is low are discussed: (i) challenging mental frames, (ii) understanding human motivations, (iii) augmenting scenario planning through adopting the approach of crisis management, and (iv) assessing the flexibility, diversity, and insurability of strategic options in a structured option-against-scenario evaluation.     

A directional slacks-based measure of technical inefficiency

Radial measures of efficiency estimated using linear programming (LP) methods can be biased since slack in the constraints defining the technology suggests that at least one input can be reduced, or one output can be expanded, even though a firm is deemed to be “technically efficient.” In this paper, we propose a directional slacks-based measure of technical inefficiency to account for the potential of slack in technological constraints. When no such slacks exist, directional slacks-based inefficiency collapses to the directional technology distance function. Our proposed measure helps to generalize some of the existing slacks-based measures of inefficiency. We examine the financial services provided by Japanese cooperative Shinkin banks, and estimate their inefficiency during the period 2002–2005. This inefficiency declined slightly during the period. We thus propose that slack is an important source of inefficiency which is often not captured by the directional technology distance function.     

Valuation in US Commercial Real Estate

We consider a log‐linearized version of a discounted rents model to price commercial real estate as an alternative to traditional hedonic models. First, we verify a key implication of the model, namely, that cap rates forecast commercial real estate returns. We do this using two different methodologies: time series regressions of 21 US metropolitan areas and mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regressions with aggregate REIT returns. Both approaches confirm that the cap rate is related to fluctuations in future returns. We also investigate the provenance of the predictability. Based on the model, we decompose fluctuations in the cap rate into three parts: (i) local state variables (demographic and local economic variables); (ii) growth in rents; and (iii) an orthogonal part. About 30% of the fluctuation in the cap rate is explained by the local state variables and the growth in rents. We use the cap rate decomposition into our predictive regression and find a positive relation between fluctuations in economic conditions and future returns. However, a larger and significant part of the cap rate predictability is due to the orthogonal part, which is unrelated to fundamentals. This implies that economic conditions, which are also used in hedonic pricing of real estate, cannot fully account for future movements in returns. We conclude that commercial real estate prices are better modelled as financial assets and that the discounted rent model might be more suitable than traditional hedonic models, at least at an aggregate level.     

模型人物与可以复制的艺术——分析十七年文学消失的原因

"十七年文学"一直是文学史上颇具争议的一段时期的文学,社会学家以政治角度和阶级立场分析,文学评论家从文学的本质出发,对其进行批评。两个部分中第一部分主要从叙述学中有关人物的理论,以十七年文学的小说作品为研究对象,分五个方面结合具体文本进行阐述和分析。第二部分从文学接受中读者"期待视野"的相关理论进行理想文学形式的阐述,并与十七年文学的小说作品中的人物形象进行对比,并最终归纳出十七年文学消失的原因。     

Efficiency measurement of Chinese airports with flight delays by directional distance function

This paper employs directional distance function to evaluate the technical efficiency of twenty major Chinese airports from 2006 to 2009 within a joint production framework of desirable and undesirable output (i.e. flight delays). The results indicate that the overall average efficiencies of Chinese airports increased over the period of time. The international hub airports are found to operate at higher efficiency level, which indicates that these airports run well in producing more desirable outputs and controlling flight delays. Although the average efficiency score of listed airports is higher than non-listed ones, the difference between the two group is statistically insignificant. A comparison between the results without and with flight delays show that several airports experienced significant changes in their efficiency scores after considering undesirable output.     

Mispricing and the cross-section of stock returns

This paper employs the Campbell-Shiller (Rev Financ Stud 1:195–228, 1988) VAR model to derive a model-based mispricing measure that captures investor overreaction to growth. Using this mispricing measure, we find that stocks with low levels of mispricing outperform otherwise similar stocks. The long–short mispricing strategy generates statistically and economically significant returns over the sample period of July 1981 to June 2006. Moreover, this mispricing strategy outperforms the contrarian strategy using various accounting-fundamental-to-price ratios. Our results cast doubt on the risk story in explaining the abnormal returns of the mispricing strategy. Rather, our evidence suggests that asset prices reflect both covariance risk and mispricing.