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41.
The macroeconomic forecasts for emerging economies often suffer from the constraints of instability and limited data. In light of these constraints, we propose the use of a local autoregressive (LAR) model with a data-driven estimation window, i.e., a local homogenous interval, that is adaptively identified to strike a balance between information efficiency and stability. When applied to three key macroeconomic variables of China, the LAR model substantially outperforms the alternative models for various forecast horizons of 3 to 12 months, with forecast error reductions of between 4% and 64% for the IP growth, and between 1% and 68% for the inflation rate. The one-quarter ahead performance of the LAR model matches that of a well-known survey forecast. The patterns of the identified local intervals also coincide with the characteristic evolution of the gradual reforms and monetary policy shifts in China. In short, the LAR model is suitable for not only forecasting, but also the real-time monitoring of the effects of regime and policy changes in emerging economies. 相似文献
42.
在分类应用的过程中,经常会出现新的类别,导致数据分布发生显著变化,使得原分类模型不再适用。如何识别新的类别使分类模型能适应其出现已经成为一个亟需解决的问题。本文提出基于特征增量的SVDD(支持向量数据描述)新类识别方法。该方法在SVDD算法的基础上,通过增加新特征,扩大特征空间维度从而提高模型对于新类的识别能力。在多个数据集上的实验结果表明,该方法能有效识别新类,使更新后的模型具有更高的准确度。 相似文献
43.
在大数据时代,服务创新必须与超级计算技术密切结合,同时要注意一些应该充分体现的原则。可以开展服务创新的领域是极其广泛的,在经济管理领域,主要可以在企业经营决策、金融理财、商业模式、选择业务外包等诸多领域提供创新的服务。 相似文献
44.
《管理科学学报(英文)》2021,6(4):482-498
The result shows that it accepts the null hypothesis. Namely, there is no significant difference in the operating efficiency of universities in different regions. That is to say, although the efficiency of the central and western universities is slightly better than that of the eastern universities in terms of the average efficiency, there is no significant efficiency difference among the eastern, central, and western regions statistically. Therefore, it shows a balanced development trend for the efficiency of universities in different regions. 相似文献
45.
We provide a comprehensive overview of the literature on the measurement of democracy and present an extensive update of the Machine Learning indicator of Gründler and Krieger (2016). Four improvements are particularly notable: First, we produce a continuous and a dichotomous version of the Machine Learning democracy indicator. Second, we calculate intervals that reflect the degree of measurement uncertainty. Third, we refine the conceptualization of the Machine Learning Index. Finally, we significantly expand the data coverage by providing democracy indices for 186 countries in the period from 1919 to 2019. 相似文献
46.
47.
《Socio》2014,48(3):169-174
This paper shows efficiency indices for 60 Brazilian electricity distribution utilities. The efficiency scores are gauged by three DEA models. For both models, these quantities are evaluated under different contexts. One treats with respect to the regulator perspective. The others examine an alternative approach based on cluster analysis and restrictions on factor weights. It is worth pointing out that these developments can reduce the information asymmetry and improve the regulator's skill to compare the performance of the utilities, a fundamental in incentive regulation schemes. 相似文献
48.
《International Journal of Forecasting》2020,36(1):121-128
We participated in the M4 competition for time series forecasting and here describe our methods for forecasting daily time series. We used an ensemble of five statistical forecasting methods and a method that we refer to as the correlator. Our retrospective analysis using the ground truth values published by the M4 organisers after the competition demonstrates that the correlator was responsible for most of our gains over the naïve constant forecasting method. We identify data leakage as one reason for its success, due partly to test data selected from different time intervals, and partly to quality issues with the original time series. We suggest that future forecasting competitions should provide actual dates for the time series so that some of these leakages could be avoided by participants. 相似文献
49.
Mobile payments are services that use mobile devices to make payments. When digitalization moves across channel boundaries, online to offline channel retail will expand. Online to offline retailing will become the future retail owner stream and retail operators will move from cross-channel or multi-channel to omni-channel. This study investigates a market survey in Taiwan developing a data mining analytics including clustering analysis and association rules based on a snowflake schema database design. The role of mobile payment is determined in terms of new retail payment mechanism that promotes a better consumer purchase experience in an online to offline business environment. 相似文献
50.
Color psychology plays important roles in product packaging, the retail environment, and online marketing. This study analyzed current practices related to color composition in tourism-related photographs on Instagram. Data mining and pictorial content analysis were adopted to investigate how lightness, chroma, and hue may influence Instagram posts' popularity. Generally, individuals appeared more likely to respond to brighter and more saturated destination pictures. Orange, yellow, blue, and violet contributed significantly to post popularity based on different photographic typologies. Overall, color is a complex construct that functions within diverse dimensions and can enrich tourists’ destination-related perceptions. Based on brand post popularity and color theories, the study findings provide valuable implications for effective and efficient destination promotion via Instagram. Relevant limitations and future directions are also discussed. 相似文献