制造企业组织柔性、动态服务创新能力与服务创新绩效

随着制造业服务化转型的逐渐深入,服务成为价值交换的核心要素,企业研发工作的重心从产品创新延伸到服务创新。在服务创新背景下,市场需求、关键资源和创新模式的内涵都发生了根本改变,促使企业不断提高自身适应性以应对挑战。然而,目前关于该主题的研究尚不充分。分析并验证了制造企业组织柔性对动态服务创新能力和服务创新绩效的影响。从支撑服务创新的角度出发,将组织柔性划分为组织文化柔性、组织结构柔性和人力资源柔性,分析了组织柔性通过增强企业动态服务创新能力（服务需求感知能力、服务方案开发能力和服务系统重构能力）提升服务创新绩效的作用机制,构建了反映上述概念之间关系的理论模型。以组织市场（B2B）作为研究背景,面向制造企业管理者收集数据,通过实证分析对理论模型进行检验。研究结果表明：组织柔性对服务创新绩效具有积极影响,动态服务创新能力和市场动态性分别在二者间关系中起中介作用和调节作用。最后,就企业如何提高组织柔性,增强动态服务创新能力,进而改善服务创新绩效提出若干建议和对策。     

汽车空气滤清器数值仿真分析与结构改进设计

降低空气滤清器流动阻力是提高滤清效率、延长滤清器寿命、提高发动机动力性与经济性的主要方法。利用计算流体力学(Computational Fluid Dynamic,CFD)数值仿真分析方法对某型号汽车空气滤清器进行流动阻力仿真分析与研究。通过调整滤清器的进气角度以及圆角设计,提高了滤清器内部气流流动的均匀性,有效降低了滤清器的流动阻力。     

财政政策、货币政策调控与宏观经济稳定——基于新凯恩斯主义垄断竞争模型的分析

本文基于包含金融加速器的新凯恩斯主义垄断竞争框架,研究了财政政策和货币政策冲击对我国宏观经济的影响。实证结果表明,财政政策能够解释部分就业、消费和资本存量波动;货币政策冲击则能够解释大部分通货膨胀、就业波动,以及部分产出、消费和投资波动。总体上,模型能够较好地刻画中国宏观经济波动特征。本文认为今后一段时期内,应当将财政政策更多转向民生领域和基础设施建设,重视货币政策调控,从而更有效地调控宏观经济运行。     

国际金融市场波动溢出效应与动态相关性

在DCC GARCH、DCC EGARCH、DCC TGARCH方法下,采用中、美、日、德、英等国家1993年1月至2013年12月的金融数据,实证得出如下结论：样本国市场利率和股指波动率呈现尖峰、肥尾、有偏的特征,更为符合t分布。样本国市场利率波动表现出显著的溢出效应、杠杆效应和联动效应。样本国股指波动率对中国股指波动率的溢出效应趋于增强,特别在美国金融危机后。样本国利率波动对中国股指波动率具有一定的溢出效应和杠杆效应,但影响程度非常低。治理世界性金融风险,各国当局应加强政策协调性,合理进行风险分担。     

基于互联网大数据的CPI舆情指数构建与应用

研究目标：基于互联网大数据构建CPI舆情指数辅助预测CPI。研究方法：提出了一种构建CPI低频与高频舆情指数的统计方法,并通过选用2006年6月至2015年12月的数据验证了该方法的有效性。研究发现：相关关键词的搜索热度指标具有领先CPI的预测作用,依此建立的CPI舆情指数有助于改进CPI预测精度。研究创新：揭示了基于相关关键词的搜索热度指标与CPI的非线性关系,提出了一种基于门限回归的CPI低频舆情指数构建方法;使用动态因子模型估计出了CPI高频舆情指数。研究价值：预测CPI时可辅助利用基于大数据构建的CPI低频与高频舆情指数信息。     

计量经济学应用研究的总体回归模型设定

本文从计量经济学应用研究中总体回归模型设定的任务和目标出发,通过对总体模型设定的研究目的导向、经济学理论导向、数据关系导向的分析与评价,提出总体模型设定的唯一性、一般性、现实性和统计检验必要性原则;最后,提出总体回归模型设定的"经济主体动力学关系导向"原则和框架。     

The impacts of governance and institutions on inbound tourism demand: evidence from a dynamic panel data study

This study explores the impact of governance and institutions on inbound tourism demand in Malaysia using a dynamic panel data approach for 45 tourism source countries over the period 2005–2015. The results show that institutions play a very important role in explaining the behaviour of inbound tourism demand. To obtain a better picture, we investigate the response of international tourists to disaggregated institutional quality. We find that international tourists are more concerned about political stability, governmental effectiveness, regulations, laws, and corruption than voice and accountability. Therefore, policymakers should focus on ways to improve institutional quality to significantly increase international tourist arrivals.     

基于ArcSDE和SQL Server 2005的城乡动态监测集成数据库的构建——以义乌市城乡动态监测集成数据库为例

海量城乡动态监测数据的组织和管理是城乡动态监测亟待解决的问题。本文以义乌市城乡动态监测集成数据库为例,在对城乡动态监测集成数据库特点进行深入分析的基础上,介绍了基于ArcSDE和SQL Server 2005的城乡动态监测集成数据库设计及构建流程,并对城乡动态监测数据分类与编码、数据库逻辑设计及数据库存储设计进行了详细阐述。     

Asset‐based poverty transition and persistence in rural China

This article tests empirically for transition and persistence of poverty in rural China based on the theory of asset‐based poverty traps. It proposes an analytical framework mitigating the problem of endogenous switching between accumulation regimes and disentangling the true state‐dependence of poverty. Specifically, a dynamic asset threshold separating households into downward and upward mobility regimes is identified after taking households’ unobserved characteristics and observed regime‐differentiated accumulation strategies into account. The static analysis identifies causality running from settling into a downward mobility regime to the probability of poverty measured by consumption. Furthermore, allowing for endogenous initial poverty status, the dynamic analysis finds strong true state‐dependence in poverty. Households with the same characteristics are nearly twice as likely to be poor as if they had not previously switched to the accumulation regime. Assets below the dynamic threshold serve as a conduit through which poverty propagates itself. Factors that help to break this vicious circle are identified.     

A tourist kit ‘made in Italy’: An ‘intelligent’ system for implementing new generation destination cards

This study investigates the advantages and the potentiality of the ‘tourist kit’, an Italian solution based on the concept of a prepaid card that is issued by a large postal operator. The destination card can be reloaded by tourists according to their needs and its validity is not restricted to short periods. Thus, the kit provides tourists with an integrated, practical, and flexible tool capable of making their stay more enjoyable as it allows cardholders to choose and buy many products and services at discounted prices. The kit creates customer loyalty by utilising smart technology aimed at collecting accurate tourist information. This model deserves attention because it is probably the world's first case of a large postal operator entering the tourism sector with the proposal of an integrated and advanced destination card scheme. This research also discusses interesting opportunities and challenges related to the implementation of new generation tourist cards.