A Dynamic Model of Oligopolistic Market Structure,Featuring Positioning Investments

In their efforts to create and maintain a position in a market, firms make positioning investments of various sorts, in R&D, plant, advertising, and location, or more generally, in product development and maintenance. In an environment where the success of positioning investments is stochastic, the positioning game played by firms that compete to serve a market is necessarily dynamic. We model the positioning and operating decisions of firms in an environment of this sort. When the market is large enough to support at least one active firm, in the steady state equilibrium, the expected number of firms serving the market at a point in time is a nearly continuous function of market size, in sharp contrast to the familiar integer-valued step function seen in classic models, and expected total and consumer surplus are higher than standard non-stochastic models would indicate. This suggests that the classic models are not always a sound guide for policy.     

动态定标原理及其应用

本文从测量技术中的通用定标原理出发，在传感器一定的线性传输特性范围内，提出了一种新的定标方案－动态定标方案，并以成份分析工作中对待测量所提出的计量控制值域为例，说明了这种定标方法在测量技术中的实现方法及其应用价值。     

Will the frog change into a prince? Predicting future customer profitability

More and more companies have customer databases that enable them to analyze customer profitability over time. These companies often seek to determine the most important customers as indicated by their current or historical profitability and focus attention on them. Focusing on profitable customers can result in more efficient use of marketing resources, but this approach neglects the fact that customers can evolve over time. Some customers begin as low-profit customers but eventually develop into high-profit customers. Others may start out as high-profit customers but become unprofitable over time. Previous efforts to predict future profitability have been relatively unsuccessful, with relatively simple, naïve models often performing just as well as or better than more sophisticated ones. Our paper presents a new approach to predicting customer profitability in future periods that performs significantly better than naïve models. We estimate the models on data from a high-tech company in a business-to-business context and validate the models' predictive ability on a holdout sample.We show that a model based on simulation of customer futures provides large improvements over naïve extrapolation of average profits. By using the simulation model to select customers, ROI from marketing efforts is projected to increase by 58%.     

长兴岛海域围填海开发强度分析

本研究提取并分析了长兴岛附近海域2005～2017年围填海开发强度.研究结果表明,2005～2017年长兴岛海域整体开发强度增大,围填海面积增加最大的类型为围海养殖,围填海开发强度较高值由相对集中转化为相对分散,围填海开发强度分布更加均匀.     

The impact of the 2008 financial crisis on dynamic productivity growth of the Spanish food manufacturing industry. An impulse response analysis

The emergence of a financial crisis is an event that can impact the fortunes of nearly all economic agents. The focus here is on the 2008 financial crisis and how firms’ productivity growth was impacted by this crisis in the years that followed. This article focuses on dynamic productivity growth and its components using a firm‐level data set of Spanish meat processing, dairy processing, and oils and fats firms. The impulse response analysis shows that the impact of the crisis on dynamic productivity growth is negative and persistent in the oils and fats industry, initially positive but then negative in the meat processing industry, and positive in the dairy processing industry. The observed magnitudes of change in indicator are between 2% and 5% for oils and fats industries, and of 1% in both dairy and meat industries. Our analysis further confirms that firms’ size is an important factor in explaining how crisis impacts dynamic productivity growth and its components, while we find only slight evidence regarding the firms’ experience in the market.     

中国出口贸易结构对二氧化碳排放的动态影响——基于变参数模型的实证分析

文章基于变参数模型,分析了我国出口贸易结构对二氧化碳排放的动态影响。结果表明,出口贸易各项组成部分与二氧化碳排放存在长期的均衡关系,并呈现动态变化。其中初级产品出口对碳排放的影响系数呈逐渐增加的趋势,而工业制成品出口对碳排放的影响系数呈逐渐降低的趋势。基于此,本文提出相关政策建议。     

Optimization in a Dynamic Leontief Model with Restricted Value Growth

The purpose of this paper is to develop a dynamic Leontief model of an msector economic system in which the production of all goods requires one time period and one primary factor, but no capital stocks of any good, and in which the total value of outputs from all sectors is required to grow at a specified rate in each period. The requirement of a fixed rate of total value growth is less restrictive than the familiar condition of balanced growth across all sectors, and it permits the definition and analysis of interesting finite-period optimization problems. Specific results of the paper include the following: (1) the proof that a value-added maximization problem with an unrestricted initial state will experience consumption in exactly one sector in each time period, and willyield an optimal value function which is linear in the variables that describe the terminal state of the system; (2) the development of an efficient Dantzig-Wolfe procedure for analysis of the total value-added maximization problem where both the initial and terminal states are specified; (3) the derivation of testable properties that will guarantee the attainability of a specified target state from a specified initial state of the system; (4) a formal comparison of some basic characteristics of total value growth and balanced value growth.     

海洋石油平台冰激振动可靠性分析

给出了动冰片作用下海洋石油平台振动可靠性的分析方法，建立起避开共振和限制振动响应两类可靠性模型，为定量评估平台冰激振动的可靠性创造了条件。通过实例分析，提到一些有益的结论，可供工程应用参考。     

金融状况指数的动态特征及其有效性研究

运用三区制马尔科夫转换模型,考量中国金融状况指数(FCI)的动态变化特征,并采用变参数状态空间模型,研究金融运行对实体经济发展的有效作用程度。结果发现：中国金融状况具有敏感的区制转换特征以及明显的非对称性特征,从而导致了其有效性不断变化;金融运行的有效作用程度在0.3~0.4之间波动,整体上对实体经济发展的有效性呈现增强态势。     

基于动态能力理论的项目型企业知识管理研究

项目型企业最大的财富在于其运作管理的知识资本,其发展依赖于更加高效的知识管理。首先分析了不确定环境下项目型企业知识管理的根本任务,随后引入动态能力理论来研究项目型企业的知识管理,分析了动态能力对项目型企业克服知识状态刚性的关键作用,得出不确定环境下项目型企业知识管理的核心内容就是要培育并提升企业的动态能力的结论。