Bifurcation analysis of Zellner's Marshallian Macroeconomic Model

The Marshallian Macroeconomic Model in Zellner and Israilevich (2005) provides a novel way to examine sectoral dynamics through the introduction of a dynamic entry/exit equation in addition to the usual demand and supply functions found in models of this class. In this paper we examine the possibility of cyclical behavior in the Marshallian Macroeconomic Model and investigate the existence of a Hopf bifurcation with respect to the parameter in the entry/exit equation.     

Giving little by little: Dynamic voluntary contribution games

Charitable contributions are frequently made over time. Donors are free to contribute whenever they wish and as often as they want, and are frequently updated on the level of contributions by others. A dynamic structure enables donors to condition their contribution on that of others, and, as Schelling [Schelling, Thomas C., The Strategy of Conflict Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1960.] suggested, it may establish trust thereby increasing charitable giving. Marx and Matthews [Marx, Leslie, and Steven Matthews, “A Dynamic Voluntary Contribution to a Public Project,” Review of Economic Studies, 67, 2000, 327-358.] build on Schelling's insight and show that multiple contribution rounds may secure a provision level that cannot be achieved in the static, one-shot setting, but only if there is a discrete, positive payoff jump upon completion of the project. We examine these two hypotheses experimentally using static and dynamic public good games. We find that contributions are indeed higher in the dynamic than in the static game. However, in contrast to the predictions, the increase in contributions in the dynamic game does not depend critically on the existence of a completion benefit jump or on whether players can condition their decisions on the behavior of other members of their group.     

A Dynamic Model of Cross-Category Competition: Theory, Tests and Applications

Recent marketing studies use scanner data to diagnose the influence of a change in a brand's marketing mix on other brands in the same category. A few studies also use scanner data to model inter-category effects between substitutes (e.g., tea and coffee) or complements (e.g., tea and sugar). No study models the dynamic effects of cross-category competition though.We present a dynamic model that shows how different products in a typical market basket influence demand of one another. Empirical tests use single-source, market-level data for ice cream and some substitute and complement categories. On the basis of in-sample fit, out-of-sample forecasts, and formal causality tests, this study demonstrates that the marketing mix decisions for ice cream influence the sales and market shares of ice cream toppings and frozen yogurt. As a check on the predictive validity of the model, model parameters, using 16-month data, predict behavior in the subsequent 3 months.     

中国房地产公司动态资本结构研究

通过一般公司动态资本结构模型研究,结合我国房地产公司运行特性,对房地产公司资产负债特性进行了分析:即将公司负债分为金融性负债和经营性负债。建立了房地产公司动态资本结构模型,利用该模型进行了数据仿真分析。研究发现,当房地产公司盈利能力较强且比较稳定时,通过增加经营性负债和金融性负债均可使股权收益率得到较大的提高,且经营性负债率对其影响较大;当房地产公司盈利能力较弱且波动性较强时,通过增加经营性负债可以提高股权收益率,但提高的幅度非常小。     

基于快乐指数的“个人–团队”动态匹配模型研究——以科研团队为例

个人–团队匹配模型已经改变了团队模式下人力资源的选拔方法,但不足的是不能保证\"个人–团队\"能够动态匹配。已有的研究发现,员工快乐与否直接影响着团队的绩效,并且员工快乐这个元素是呈动态变化的。建立了团队快乐指数的评价指标体系,并通过构建\"个人–团队\"动态匹配模型来影响团队成员快乐的因素,达到间接、动态地调整\"个人–团队\"绩效关系,使个人与团队之间得到双赢的绩效目标。