陕西农户奶牛保险支付意愿的实证分析

陕西省于2007年7月在泾阳县实施了奶牛政策性农业保险的试点。本文按照条件价值评估方法,于2007年11月在泾阳县以支付卡式问卷调查对127户奶牛养殖户进行了实地调查,以调查数据为依据,测算了当地养殖户奶牛保险费用支付意愿,并运用Logistic回归模型分析了影响农户奶牛保险支付意愿的主要因素。结论认为,泾阳县奶牛保险试点中对畜龄2～8周岁奶牛实际征收保费标准低于养殖户平均支付意愿,是否接受保费、是否了解补贴、养殖户个体特征即受教育年限、养殖经验、年龄等是影响其保险支付意愿的主要因素。     

改进系列模型延伸法在马鞍山长江公路大桥桥墩局部冲刷试验中的应用

文章采用系列模型延伸法对桥墩周围复杂水流导致的局部冲刷问题进行研究。首先对系列模型的设计原理进行了简要说明,并以煤粉为模型沙,采用选取300年一遇(p=0.33%)、100年一遇(p=1%)和20年一遇(p=5%)3种极限洪水条件,对马鞍山公路大桥桥墩局部冲刷情况进行了试验研究,然后对系列模型试验结果与物理模型试验结果进行对比分析。     

Technology level evaluation methodology based on the technology growth curve

Technology has been the driving force of development for knowledge-based economies. As competition in technology innovation among nations becomes more intense, there is a growing need for improved judgment, evaluation and prediction of scientific technology capacity in order to enhance national competitiveness. Until now, a country's technology level has been evaluated on a relative basis by comparing it with that of the country with the world's best technology. However, this kind of static methodology makes the interpretation of results unclear and makes time series analysis difficult. One of the most important limitations of this methodology is that it cannot be used to establish a strategy to improve the technology level. This paper examines the methodological problems of technology level evaluation and develops a dynamic methodology by applying the technology growth curve model. We also analyze the real technology level by using a new model application and review the relevance of this method. Finally, we discuss how to use the results in order to create a dynamic technology strategy.     

循环经济认知误区的实证分析

随着传统经济增长模式危机的出现，世界各国纷纷提出并开始建立循环经济。循环经济作为一种崭新的社会经济发展模式，人们对其认识还存在种种误区，其中认为循环经济是一种最终实现“全新的封闭式的零排放的资源利用方式”、“可解决一切环境问题”的观点最为典型。那么，是否真的存在完美的全社会物质循环呢？实现这种循环的代价是什么？本文以物质循环为基本假设条件，应用扩张环境分析用投入产出模型对社会实现全循环的可能性进行了理论探讨．并以日本为例应用该模型对日本物质循环现状和在现有条件下实现全循环的可能性及其成本进行了实证分析，论证了在现有条件下实现全社会完美的物质循环的难点。     

House Prices and Stock Prices: Different Roles in the US Monetary Transmission Mechanism*

We analyze the role of house prices and stock prices in the monetary‐policy transmission mechanism in the US, using a structural vector autoregressive model. If we allow the interest rate and asset prices to react simultaneously to news, we find different roles for house prices and stock prices in the monetary transmission mechanism. Following a contractionary monetary‐policy shock, stock prices fall immediately, while the response in house prices is more gradual. Regarding the systematic response in monetary policy, stock prices play a more important role than house prices. As a consequence, house prices contribute more than stock prices to fluctuations in gross domestic product and inflation.     

美国金融危机对中国出口贸易的影响

本文选取中国与G7国家双边贸易数据,构建动态面板数据模型,实证分析了美国金融危机对中国出口贸易的影响。结果表明,美国金融危机导致G7国家经济陷入衰退,失业率上升、金融市场动荡和国内需求萎缩,由此带来的贸易传播效应给中国出口贸易带来了较为严重的负面影响。从具体的传递渠道来看,G7国家实际GDP指数下降、股票价格指数下跌和人民币实际汇率的波动对中国出口贸易的负面影响较为显著;而G7国家失业率增加对中国出口贸易的影响较小且并不显著。     

不同质量水平下的总质量成本研究

质量成本(COQ,Cost of Quality)是衡量提高质量活动的效果和效率的标准.COQ模型在质量成本研究中起着重要的作用.基于"6σ管理"中"持续改进"的思想和方法,用"kσ"作为质量水平(QL,Quality Level)的度量,笔者得到了不同质量水平下的动态总COQ模型.进而,还提供了不同质量水平下的总质量成本曲线.     

Is the environment‐friendly factor attractive to customers when purchasing electric vehicles? Evidence from South Korea

In a bid to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, several countries worldwide are implementing policies to promote electric vehicles (EVs). However, contrary to expectations, the diffusion speed of EVs has been rather slow in South Korea. This study analyzes consumer preferences for the technological and environmental attributes of EVs and derives policy and environmental implications to promote market diffusion of EVs in South Korea. We conduct a choice‐based conjoint survey of 1,008 consumers in South Korea and estimate the consumer utility function using a mixed logit model considering consumer heterogeneity. Based on the consumer utility function, we analyze consumers' willingness‐to‐pay (WTP) for EV attributes such as driving range, charging method, charging time, autonomous driving function, carbon dioxide (CO₂) reduction rate, and purchase price. The results indicate that the current low acceptance of EVs is due to their relatively high price and lack of a battery charging technology that satisfies consumers' expectations of the charging method and time. One interesting finding is that Korean consumers have a relatively higher WTP for the CO₂ reduction rate of EVs than consumers in other countries; however, they do not consider CO₂ reduction over other technological attributes when choosing EVs. This implies that the rate of CO₂ reduction of EVs is not an important factor for South Korean consumers when buying EVs. We also calculate the effect of CO₂ reduction with the market penetration of EVs and find that CO₂ reduction through the diffusion of EVs depends on the country's electricity generation mix.     

从印度危机反思小额贷款的高利率盈利模式

印度小额信贷危机震惊了全球,唤醒了人们对高利率盈利模式的反思。近年来,印度小额贷款利率持续上升并维持于高位——而极高的利率并非基于成本和风险的考虑——挤出经营性贷款需求——借款人因无力偿债而引发社会危机。危机表明,高利率的小额贷款只会为其经营者带来持续的高利润,而借款人的生计则陷入不可持续的困境。中国小额信贷起步较晚,但在利率问题上存在同样盲区。高利率在中国同样难担脱贫之任,低收入者的希望是支付得起的低利模式,即信贷的互助合作。     

Do jobs follow people or people follow jobs? A meta-analysis of Carlino–Mills studies

Do jobs follow people or people follow jobs? A meta-analysis of Carlino–Mills studies. Spatial Economic Analysis. This study examines the classic question as to whether ‘jobs follow people’ or ‘people follow jobs’ by performing a meta-analysis of 321 results from 64 Carlino–Mills studies. It is found that the results are highly divergent, but that more results point towards ‘jobs following people’ than towards ‘people following jobs’. When it comes to the reasons for the variation in results, we find that the results are mostly shaped by the geographical location, spatial resolution, and population and employment characteristics present in the data, as well as by the model’s specification, its functional form and the spatial weight matrix specification.