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61.
对蒙代尔-弗莱明模型的修正--中国经济增长对人民币汇率作用机制 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
蒙代尔-弗菜明模型认为,经济增长会使一国经常账户恶化从而导致本国货币贬值,中国自1994年以来经济快速增长,而经常账户却是持续顺差,在利率不断下降条件下,资金大量流入,人民币汇率稳中有升,外汇储备大幅度增加,这些显然有悖于蒙代尔-弗菜明模型。本文认为,购买力平价理论更符合中国现实,并给出了购买力平价理论动态表述,然后对传统的汇率货币模型进行修正,进一步分析经济增长与汇率之间关系。最后本文对蒙代尔-弗莱明模型国际收支平衡线进行修正,并运用修正后的M-F模型分析在开放经济条件下的财政政策与货币政策效果。 相似文献
62.
我国M_2/GDP的动态增长路径、货币供应量与政策选择 总被引:22,自引:2,他引:22
本文试图求解我国M2/GDP的动态增长路径,并对与此相关的金融政策选择进行分析。研究发现,我国M2/GDP的变动路径具有Logistic曲线的基本形状,将经历先加速上升后增长速度逐渐减缓,最终趋于稳定状态的变化过程。本文估算了我国M2/GDP的增长上限及其变化拐点。研究还发现,M2/GDP的上升并不必然意味着通胀压力加大,只有M2/GDP偏离动态增长路径时,才会对通货膨胀产生影响。据此本文估算了2005年货币供应量的合理区间。本文认为,应继续实施稳健货币政策,合理确定货币总量增长速度,继续推进体制性改革等措施确保经济金融的稳定运行。 相似文献
63.
The paper considers what can be inferred about experimental subjects’ time preferences for consumption from responses to laboratory
tasks involving tradeoffs between sums of money at different dates, if subjects can reschedule consumption spending relative
to income in external capital markets. It distinguishes three approaches identifiable in the literature: the straightforward
view; the separation view; and the censored data view. It shows that none of these is fully satisfactory and discusses the
resulting implications for intertemporal decision-making experiments.
JEL Classification C90, C91, D90, D91, D11, D12 相似文献
64.
We investigate the interplay between environmental policy, incentives to adoptnew technology, and repercussions on R&D. We study a model where a monopolistic upstream firm engages in R&D and sells advanced
abatement technology to polluting downstream firms. We consider four different timing and commitment regimes of environmental
tax and permit policies: ex post taxation (or issuing permits), interim commitment to a tax rate (a quota of permits) after
observing R&D success but before adoption, and finally two types of ex antecommitment before R&D activity, one with a unique tax rate (quota of permits), the other one with a menu of tax rates (permit
quotas). We study the second best tax and permit policies and rank these with respect to welfare. In particular, we find that
commitment to a menu of tax rate dominates all other policy regimes. 相似文献
65.
The paper analyzes the degree of output persistence in GDP in order toempirically discriminate between the Solow growth model, the perfect competition endogenous growth model and the imperfect competition endogenous growth model for the case of Austria. Wefind that a shock in the growth rate of output induces a permanent and larger effect on the level of GDP. This leads us to refute the Solow growth model and the perfect competition model of endogenous growth.We may not reject the imperfect competition growth model. 相似文献
66.
动态效率、生产性公共支出与结构效应 总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9
利用1979-2008年三次产业的数据和误差修正模型,本文估算了我国政府生产性公共支出与经济动态无效的长期关系,考察了政府生产性公共支出对三次产业的生产要素积累所产生的影响。研究发现:在结构效应为正的条件下,当期公共支出的增加能够影响资本和劳动在三次产业之间,以及三次产业内部不同行业之间的要素积累方式,起到改善经济结构、优化资源配置的作用;我国经济的投资拉动型增长方式及与之相伴随的公共品供给机制,通过"租金"创造机制诱导特定产业的发展,从而能够提升产业结构,促进资源和生产要素的优化配置,符合赶超型经济的目标要求。 相似文献
67.
68.
Certain manuals and computer programs mistakenly identify the mean with the constant in Box-Jenkins time series models. In this paper, it will be shown that (a) the mean and the constant have different values in autoregressive models, and (b) they have an algebraic and graphical relationship. 相似文献
69.
Paolo Ghirardato 《Economic Theory》2002,20(1):83-92
Summary. I present an axiomatization of subjective expected utility and Bayesian updating in a conditional decision problem. This
result improves our understanding of the Bayesian standard from two perspectives: 1) it uses a set of axioms which are weak
and intuitive; 2) it provides a formal proof to results on the relation between dynamic consistency, expected utility and
Bayesian updating which have never been explicitly proved in a fully subjective framework.
Received: December 1, 2000; revised version: February 26, 2001 相似文献
70.
Marco Dardi 《International Review of Economics》2006,53(4):476-490
Pareto initiated the shift of economic theory from utility/preference to choice in order to fill a gap between theoretical
and empirical economics. His suggestions for an empirically-oriented theory of choice were to be developed decades later in
the literature on revealed preference and on the conditions of equivalence between preference-based and choice-based axiomatic
structures. In the process, however, substantial departures from Pareto’s implicit design of the situation of choice were
introduced. In this paper, the conditions for the rationalizability of choice are re-defined so that they fit the type of
situation that Pareto had in mind. The result is that the main consistency axioms of standard choice theory have to give way
to a different combination of axioms that concern decisiveness as well as consistency. (JEL:B13, D01, D11). 相似文献