The Distorting Impact of Capital Controls

Abstract. This paper uses panel data to show that capital controls have a significant impact on international interest rate differentials. Various types of controls can be distinguished within the data. The analysis shows that the aforementioned effects of capital controls on interest rates are especially strong in the case of capital import controls on portfolio capital; the implementation of these controls has been suggested in the wake of the Asian Crisis to prevent further crises. The results presented herein contradict the hypothesis that capital controls can achieve a restructuring of the maturity of capital inflows without a distortion in international capital allocation.     

Currency depreciations, financial transfers, and firm heterogeneity

The present paper investigates five episodes of currency collapse from the perspective of non-financial firms operating in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. We focus on two aspects: wealth and income transfers from borrowing firms to lenders and firm heterogeneity. At the firm level, we find that the currency collapses are preceded and associated with sharply rising financial transfers from firms to lenders. The debt and income structure is central in explaining the asymmetric firm dynamics. Most affected are firms with high levels of unhedged foreign-currency debt. At the country level, Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico display three contrasting examples. Argentina has a large currency mismatch, Brazil balances the currency denomination of debt and income (natural hedge), and Mexico occupies an intermediate position.     

基于B/S架构的企业信息化管理系统设计与实践

以河南煤业化工集团焦煤公司信息系统设计与开发为例,介绍了基于B/S架构的企业信息系统的开发思路、方法与具体实现过程,在分析企业信息化存在的问题及面向服务体系结构的基础上,结合先进的技术和行业最佳实践,构建了一个企业信息化的总体架构,实现企业内部各种信息资源的互通和共享,为企业的信息建设提供了更好的途径和渠道。     

基于ARM和旋转滤波的异步电机故障检测方法的研究

提出了一种基于ARM和Park矢量旋转滤波的异步电机故障检测方法。该方法结合Park矢量旋转滤波和异步电机定转子故障特征,对定子电流信号进行分析,可有效地检测异步电机的故障。并通过实验证明,该检测方法正确可行。     

显性比较优势:中国产品遭受美国反倾销的魔咒吗?

显性比较优势是中国产品遭受美国反倾销的魔咒吗?文章基于美国对中国反倾销97起涉案产品样本,并引入非涉案395种10分位主要贸易品扩展样本,研究表明:(1)美国对中国产品反倾销当年主要集中在中国对美出口具有较强显性比较优势的涉案产品上;虽然遭受美国反倾销,但中国在35起涉案产品对美出口上仍保持着较强的显性比较优势,不过有27起涉案产品已丧失较强的显性优势。(2)扩展样本后各影响因素对美国对中国产品反倾销概率的影响程度减少,避免了样本选择的有偏性。相比来看,美国对中国产品j贸易逆差是美国ITC裁决行业损害、签发反倾销指令的最重要决定因素,是美国对中国产品反倾销的直接诱因。而显性比较优势只是影响因素之一,并不是中国产品遭受美国反倾销的魔咒。美国工业生产增长率下滑、失业率上升是其他影响因素,并且次贷危机也是重要影响因素。     

On the Welfare Gains of Price Dispersion

Can price dispersion be associated with higher levels of welfare? To answer we compare two economies that differ only in the way prices are formed. In the first, sellers post a unique price–quantity pair, with no price dispersion. In the second, sellers post a quantity only and let prices be determined ex post by realized demand, resulting in price dispersion. We show that while agents trade lower quantities when prices are dispersed (an intensive margin effect), they also trade more often (an extensive margin effect). At low inflation, the extensive margin dominates making agents better off with price dispersion.     

Have We Underestimated the Likelihood and Severity of Zero Lower Bound Events?

Prior to the financial crisis, most economists probably did not view the zero lower bound (ZLB) as a major problem for central banks. Using a range of structural and statistical models, we find that previous research understated the ZLB threat by ignoring uncertainty about model parameters and latent variables, focusing too much on the Great Moderation experience, and relying on structural models whose dynamics cannot generate sustained ZLB episodes. Our analysis also suggests that the Federal Reserve's asset purchases, while materially improving macroeconomic conditions, did not prevent the ZLB constraint from having first‐order adverse effects on real activity and inflation.     

Estimating Central Bank Preferences under Commitment and Discretion

This paper explains U.S. macroeconomic outcomes with an empirical New Keynesian model in which monetary policy minimizes the central bank’s loss function. The presence of expectations in the model forms a well‐known distinction between two modes of optimization, termed commitment and discretion. The model is estimated separately under each policy using maximum likelihood over the Volcker–Greenspan–Bernanke period. Comparisons of fit reveal that the data favor the specification with discretionary policy. Estimates of the loss function weights point to an excessive concern for interest rate smoothing in the commitment model but a more balanced concern relative to inflation and output stability in the discretionary model.     

Sectoral Comovement,Monetary Policy Shocks,and Input–Output Structure

The comovement of output across the sector producing nondurables (i.e., nondurable goods and services) and the sector producing durables is well established in the monetary business cycle literature. However, standard sticky‐price models that incorporate sectoral heterogeneity in price stickiness (i.e., sticky nondurables prices and flexible durables prices) cannot generate this feature. We argue that an input–output (I–O) structure provides a solution to this problem. Here, we develop a two‐sector model with an I–O structure, which is calibrated to the U.S. economy. In the model, each sector’s output affects those of the others by acting as an intermediate input. This connection between the sectors provides a channel through which sectoral comovement is induced.     

Money: A Market Microstructure Approach

The new monetary economics predicts that deregulation and financial innovation will lead to a moneyless world. This paper uses a market microstructure approach to show that a common medium of exchange that serves as unit of account will remain a necessary instrument to reduce transaction costs. This finding is supported by empirical evidence from foreign exchange markets.