公益性捐赠、会计业绩与市场绩效:基于汶川大地震的经验证据

文章手工搜集了2008年5月12日汶川大地震发生后中国上市公司公益性捐赠的经验数据,实证研究了基于突发性自然灾害情况下的公益性捐赠对公司会计业绩和市场绩效的影响。研究结果表明,进行公益性捐赠的上市公司的会计业绩和市场绩效显著增加,上市公司的积极性公益性捐赠显著提升了其会计业绩和市场绩效,捐赠金额越多,会计业绩和市场绩效越好。     

Improving public health emergency preparedness through enhanced decision-making environments: A simulation and survey based evaluation

Public health emergency preparedness officials use several modes of education and training programs to improve their response capability, including tabletop exercises. Tabletop exercises allow participants to role-play during a health emergency in an experiential practice environment and evaluate performance using existing benchmarks. Although tabletop exercises are routinely used in public health to identify gaps in emergency planning, quantitative measures of the impact of participating in an exercise are less common. To this end, we have designed a state-of-the-art simulation-driven hybrid tabletop exercise which is informed by local leadership interests and options, and tied into a research platform that enables rigorous assessment and improvements. The exercise and assessment were used by the state of Arizona during the 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak. The simulation allows participants to respond to a hypothetical pandemic influenza scenario and make iterative policy decisions in a group setting. The exercise provided a valuable forum reviewing and assessing emergency plans for schools to prepare for, respond to, and recover from an influenza pandemic. After the exercise, participants reported a significantly increased level of confidence in performing core public health functional capabilities around the five main topic areas.     

基于SARIMA模型的汶川大地震对四川省旅游业影响研究

通过汶川大地震前四川省旅游业数据建立SARIMA模型。预测了四川省旅游业6项主要指标,经震后实际值与预测值比较,定量分析汶川大地震等对四川省旅游业的影响程度和影响时滞。研究发现：截至2010年4月,国内旅游已波动式恢复至预测水平,入境旅游还将继续受地震影响,但入境旅游将不会影响到四川省旅游业波动式恢复至预测水平的趋势,并且四川省旅游业受地震等影响的滞后经济损失已超过了受地震等影响的直接经济损失。     

Risk,Issue and Crisis Management

Abstract

The differences between crises and disasters are generally not well understood, which often results in mismanagement turning disasters into crises. Mismanagement falls into three areas: Flawed theories and models, faulty preparation, and flawed execution. The author, a veteran of numerous high-profile issues and crises, presents original analysis and new theoretical models based on recent scientific findings about human behavior. He argues that the most important thing to remember in a crisis situation is that the greater the stress, the greater the traditional rules of success change. The best way to prevent most crises from erupting requires intensive crisis as opposed to disaster planning, and being cognizant about how stress distorts systems and relationships.     

灾后重建焦点化效应下灾区地方政府的重塑

5.12地震灾区重建的一个显著伴生现象是地方政府的重塑。在灾后重建的过程中,几个重灾县政府不约而同地开始了一系列行政改革。考察灾区地方政府的重塑机制和重塑实践,可发现与常态下地方政府改革的逻辑演化不同,灾区地方政府的重塑有独特的发生机理,在很大程度上,它是一种特殊外力推动下的重塑。灾后重建的焦点位置——舆论关注的焦点、国家审计工作的重点以及支援城市的援建和交流是推动灾区地方政府重塑的最大外力。灾区地方政府借助焦点效应提升本地形象和知名度是推动政府重塑的内力。由于焦点化效应的短暂性,灾区地方政府重塑的可持续性值得进一步关注。     

汶川大地震的回顾与反思

我国2008年5月12日发生的汶川大地震,来势凶猛,波及范围广,破坏力大,它是板块活动的结果,震中位于龙门山断裂带的中央断裂带上,以汶川的映秀镇为中心。从地震成因、影响范围和便于灾后重建来讲,汶川大地震应更名为龙门山地震。本次地震有明显的“跷跷板”现象,主震发于断裂带南端,余震区集中于北端川、甘、陕三省接壤地区。因此在发震之初要加强对断裂北端的监视。此外,也要加强对灾区次生地质灾害的防备。灾后重建应尊重科学,严禁无序建设。成都地区虽未受大的影响,但今后该区建筑物抗震烈度还可适当提高,对成都附近断层也要加强监视。     

Lost in participation: How local knowledge was overlooked in land use planning and risk governance in Tōhoku,Japan

This article aims to identify gaps in public participation in land use planning to improve risk governance, using the case of the Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) in 2011. Overreliance on technical information and on the opinion of experts is occurring side by side along with negligence of local knowledge and lack of effective public participation in decision-making, creating a sense of overconfidence regarding scientific knowledge and new infrastructure's abilities to withstand future disasters. Using the case study method in GEJE, our research identified three main overall gaps in participation. Firstly, a lot of local knowledge from previous experiences was not incorporated into land use plans in the region even after similar events in the past. Secondly, there was technical information that alerted to possible risks for land use in certain areas, but this information did not impede development in risk areas due to lack of effective participation in the land use planning processes. Finally, Japan allows participation in many land use planning process, but some of the most important decisions, such as on the sitting of nuclear plants had little or any local participation. Thus, strengthening public participation in land use by closing those three gaps could improve risk governance and resilience of localities to cope with large natural and technological disasters in the future.     

An evaluation framework for earthquake-responsive land administration

In recent years earthquakes and their secondary hazards have claimed the largest number of lives of all large natural disasters. Some of the world’s most earthquake-prone zones are also areas of high population density. The impact is magnified by vulnerability factors including non-enforcement of building codes, knowledge gaps, urban poverty and poor governance capacity to manage and reduce earthquake risks. Poor security of land tenure and property rights increases the vulnerability of people and affects their ability to respond to natural disasters.Earthquake recovery and reconstruction provides very significant challenges for land agencies, with these challenges differing from one country to the next due to differences in the local context. Drawing on contrasting case studies in Haiti, Nepal and New Zealand this paper identifies the common post-earthquake land administration functions and challenges that may apply to many contexts. These lessons provide land agencies and other key stakeholders with a summary of the challenges an earthquake poses for land administration at different post-disaster stages. We also discuss the policy and regulatory, institutional, operational and preparedness lessons for land administration. From these lessons we propose a framework for evaluating the earthquake-responsiveness of a land administration system. This framework can be used by a land agency in an earthquake prone region, or where an earthquake has recently occurred, to assess what challenges to land administration might occur in the event of an earthquake, and the preparedness of their land administration system.     

Surviving organizational disasters

Man-made and natural disasters are becoming increasingly common in today's world. Among other entities, companies should be concerned because these impact organizational survival, disrupting the lives and functioning of employees, suppliers, customers, and organizational infrastructure. If the present trend continues, the Federal Emergency Management Agency is on track to declare 30% more disasters in 2010 than in 2009. Organizational disasters are crises in the extreme. While the crisis management literature provides a useful foundation for planning for internal organizational threats, it does not adequately address larger external threats brought about by disasters. With this gap in mind, we herein present a framework for planning for man-made or natural disasters: continuity of operations planning (COOP). Continuity of operations planning is a tool that aids organizations in staying in business under extreme circumstances. Although continuity of operations planning is not an entirely new practice, many small and medium-sized firms are reluctant to engage in this type of planning. To highlight the value of the process, this article provides examples of organizational disasters, alongside a simplified method for developing an effective continuity of operations plan.     

日本地震经济恢复及其对中国经济影响预测

预测日本地震后的经济恢复情况及其对中国经济的影响具有重要的现实意义。考虑到巨灾从发生到重建过程中的相似性,首先利用历史上与本次地震相似的7次地震构建特定模型来进行预测;然后引入模糊数学的贴近度来确定对照地震的权值;最后根据模型预测的日本综合恢复度和单个经济指标的恢复度,详细地从制造业,能源和投资3个方面探讨了本次地震对于我国经济的影响。